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Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (Feb. 25 - 27)
By Staff of LMI Published February 24, 2005
The two posters I've seen {for Mad Black Woman} seem to be selling different movies.
Jason: I think the bomb for this weekend is an easy pick.
Lee: I'm thinking Diary of a Mad Black Woman isn't going to do any better than Never Die Alone ($3.1 million - $2,661 per-screen).
Jason: It looks idiotic. Have you watched the trailer?
Lee: When I saw the poster I thought it was stand-up comedy and I compared it to Dysfunktional Family ($1.1 million - $1,794/screen in 602 theaters). And then I watched the trailer and it was a totally different movie from what I expected.
Jason: The cross-dressing grandmother is the writer/director.
Lee: I've also got it in the same vein as Connie and Carla ($3.3 million - $3,210 per-screen). Who is Tyler Perry? Is he known?
Jason: Here's how the Associated Press reviewer sums up the movie: ?It tries to be everything and ends up getting nothing right."
Lee: I love when a trailer introduces every actor and you have no idea who they are. They make the actors seem like they?re marketing-worthy. It?s done with directors too. You hear "directed by __" all the time now in commercials and trailers and most of the time nobody has any clue who the filmmaker is.
Jason: What do you have it making?
Lee: Just over $3, and $4 at the peak.
Jason: That seems like a safe bet. The two posters I've seen seem to be selling different movies. One makes it look like a powerful drama. And the one we have on the site gives a completely different impression.
Lee: The old woman on the poster we have doesn't even seem like she's a strong presence in the movie. It?s like they just don't know how to market it.
Jason: Which is a bad sign for any movie, but disaster for a moderate release.
Lee: The other poster makes it look like Woman Thou Art Loosed.
I'll be looking forward to Son of the Mask's theater count drop next week. I wonder if it can beat Elektra: 3203 to 1530.
Jason: I hate to go back to the kids? movie defense, but I think that will help insulate it somewhat - there's less competition for matinees.
Lee: What do you mean?
Jason: As a theater you can show a kids? movie in the morning and afternoon and then switch over to another movie for the evening shows.
Lee: Mask's box office total may not even beat Malibu's Most Wanted's debut ($12.6 million) by that much.
Jason: It seems like the ratings for award shows have been plummeting and that the target audience for the top movies this weekend aren't that likely to be very interested in the Oscars.
For next weekend: Be Cool, The Pacifier, and The Jacket. Looks like a much better weekend with something for everyone.
Lee: My Be Cool prediction has changed since our 2005 Movie Preview.
Jason: The Jacket looks too dark to gain wide appeal. What did you say back then?
Lee: I think I said $13, but I was also going off of 2500 theaters or something. The early theater count estimate is 3000.
Jason: You were probably too low with a lot of those 2005 predictions.
Here's what the bookmakers are saying right now:
$13.5 for Cursed and $6 for Man of the House. Those are lower than the industry tracking, but even that optimistic tracking has Hitch at #1.
*As a note to readers, we will be having a pre and post Oscar Chat on Sunday night, which will be open to anyone who wants to join. For non-AOL members the chat room can be reached on AOL Instant Messenger (AIM). Access details will be posted on Sunday.
Lee: I'm thinking Diary of a Mad Black Woman isn't going to do any better than Never Die Alone ($3.1 million - $2,661 per-screen).
Jason: It looks idiotic. Have you watched the trailer?
Lee: When I saw the poster I thought it was stand-up comedy and I compared it to Dysfunktional Family ($1.1 million - $1,794/screen in 602 theaters). And then I watched the trailer and it was a totally different movie from what I expected.
Jason: The cross-dressing grandmother is the writer/director.
Lee: I've also got it in the same vein as Connie and Carla ($3.3 million - $3,210 per-screen). Who is Tyler Perry? Is he known?
Jason: Here's how the Associated Press reviewer sums up the movie: ?It tries to be everything and ends up getting nothing right."
Lee: I love when a trailer introduces every actor and you have no idea who they are. They make the actors seem like they?re marketing-worthy. It?s done with directors too. You hear "directed by __" all the time now in commercials and trailers and most of the time nobody has any clue who the filmmaker is.
Jason: What do you have it making?
Lee: Just over $3, and $4 at the peak.
Jason: That seems like a safe bet. The two posters I've seen seem to be selling different movies. One makes it look like a powerful drama. And the one we have on the site gives a completely different impression.
Lee: The old woman on the poster we have doesn't even seem like she's a strong presence in the movie. It?s like they just don't know how to market it.
Jason: Which is a bad sign for any movie, but disaster for a moderate release.
Lee: The other poster makes it look like Woman Thou Art Loosed.
I'll be looking forward to Son of the Mask's theater count drop next week. I wonder if it can beat Elektra: 3203 to 1530.
Jason: I hate to go back to the kids? movie defense, but I think that will help insulate it somewhat - there's less competition for matinees.
Lee: What do you mean?
Jason: As a theater you can show a kids? movie in the morning and afternoon and then switch over to another movie for the evening shows.
Lee: Mask's box office total may not even beat Malibu's Most Wanted's debut ($12.6 million) by that much.
Jason: It seems like the ratings for award shows have been plummeting and that the target audience for the top movies this weekend aren't that likely to be very interested in the Oscars.
For next weekend: Be Cool, The Pacifier, and The Jacket. Looks like a much better weekend with something for everyone.
Lee: My Be Cool prediction has changed since our 2005 Movie Preview.
Jason: The Jacket looks too dark to gain wide appeal. What did you say back then?
Lee: I think I said $13, but I was also going off of 2500 theaters or something. The early theater count estimate is 3000.
Jason: You were probably too low with a lot of those 2005 predictions.
Here's what the bookmakers are saying right now:
$13.5 for Cursed and $6 for Man of the House. Those are lower than the industry tracking, but even that optimistic tracking has Hitch at #1.
*As a note to readers, we will be having a pre and post Oscar Chat on Sunday night, which will be open to anyone who wants to join. For non-AOL members the chat room can be reached on AOL Instant Messenger (AIM). Access details will be posted on Sunday.
