I have done several
articles on the Oscars this year and
in each one I predicted who I think
will win. But the truth is, this year
is unlike most in that there really is
no clear cut winner in most
categories. In almost all of the major
categories there are at least two that
stand a chance of winning.
Following I will write
a little synopsis on each of the major
categories of who are the
front-runners and then I will make my
final predictions:
Best Picture
Lord Of The Rings
vs A Beautiful Mind vs Moulin Rouge
True, before I only mentioned the
first two movies. But I have heard
several experts say that Moulin Rouge
could pull of the upset. But I think
that the chance of that happening is
very small, since Baz Luhrman was not
even nominated for Best Director. Lord
Of The Rings stands a better chance
since it has received 13 nominations.
I originally picked A Beautiful Mind
to win, but now I'm not so sure. Not
that its buzz has lessened, people
have been backing the other two films
much lately. In The Bedroom and
Gosford Park are both dark horses.
My Choice:
-Lord of the Rings (of course)
And the Award Goes to:
- A Beautiful Mind (yes, I'm sticking
with that).
Best Director
Robert Altman vs Ron
Howard vs Peter Jackson
The chances for Jackson winning
for the epic LOTR seemed a little
unlikely, but it also got a boost with
the movie being nominated for so many
awards. When a movie is nominated a
bunch it stands out to the voters and
they might just give LOTR some of the
major awards, such as Director. So
this makes for a tough category to
pick. Robert Altman is a favorite
among the older voters and he has
already won several director awards
this year. Ron Howard seemed like an
unlikely choice in previous years
(except for Apollo 13 for which he
should have been nominated) and his
last movie, The Grinch was not popular
with critics. And that is exactly the
reason he could win, along with the
movie being very popular among
critics.
My Choice:
- Do you even need to ask? Peter
Jackson (LOTR)
And The Award Goes To:
-Robert Altman (Gosford Park)
Best Actress
Sissy Spacek vs Nicole
Kidman vs Halle Berry
Okay, go ahead and pick me
apart. Before I said that the award
will go to Spacek and that I would bet
money on that, I'd like to retract
that bet. Halle Berry has clearly cut
into that lead that Sissy Spacek had
going into the final few weeks before
the Oscars. Winning the SAG certainly
helped Berry's cause and to think that
last summer everyone talked about the
$1 million (or whatever it was) that
Berry received for showing off her
breasts for two seconds in Swordfish.
But still, Spacek has won the majority
of pre-Oscar awards. And then there's
Nicole Kidman that should win just
because she gave two instead of one
outstanding performance this year (the
other being for The Others).
My Choice:
- Nicole Kidman
And the Award Goes to:
- Sissy Spacek
Best Actor
Denzel Washington vs
Russell Crowe
No matter what people say, this is
Denzel's year. This is one choice that
I am more confident about. Washington
has proven himself time and again with
the roles that he has picked over the
last decade or so. He lost out on The
Hurricane and I think that the voters
might recognize him this time around.
Russell Crowe is a major star. Fact:
He has starred in four Best Picture
nominees since '97! I mentioned this
before but I think that it is truly
incredible. The other morning I heard
these annoying morning radio show
hosts say that he won't last in
Hollywood because of his temper.
What? He could become the next Tom
Hanks!
My Choice:
- Denzel Washington
And the Award Goes to:
- Denzel Washington
Supporting Actress
Jennifer Connelly
This is the one that I think is a
certainty. Everyone is talking about
the movie being nominated, Russell
Crowe and Ron Howard, but Connelly
might be the only walking away with a
major award for the movie.
My Choice:
- Jennifer Connelly
And the Award Goes to:
- Jennifer Connelly
Supporting Actor
Jim Broadbent vs Ethan
Hawke vs Ben Kingsley vs Ian McKellen
vs Jon Voight
What a mess! Isn't the supporting
actor category always though? I
wouldn't even know where to start with
this category. The only one that I
don't think stands a chance is Jon
Voight. Other than that it's a
free-for-all. McKellen won the SAG so
that helps him, but Broadbent and Ben
Kingsley have won their share of
pre-Oscar awards.
My Choice:
- Ian McKellen
And the Award Goes to:
- Ben Kingsley
Original Screenplay
Christopher Nolan (Memento)
The choice is as clear as day for
me. And that Memento was not nominated
for any other major awards is beyond
me. This is a movie that stands above
most of the nominated movies this
year, but it does all come down to how
great the script truly is. The way
that each scene somehow makes sense is
a wonder to behold. You're lost and
confused just like the main character,
but still it all comes together...uh,
kind of.
My Choice:
- Uh...Christopher Nolan (Memento)
And the Award Goes to:
- Christopher Nolan (Memento)
Adapted Screenplay: Lord Of
The Rings
Foreign Picture: Amelie
Animated Picture: Shrek
Film Editing: Memento
Cinematography: Moulin Rouge
Costume Design: Moulin Rouge
Art Direction: Moulin Rouge
Makeup: LOTR
Original Score: LOTR
Original Song: Vanilla Sky
Sound: LOTR
Sound Editing: Pearl Harbor
Visual Effects: LOTR
The best scenarios for me:
- The exact opposite of what Richard
Roeper is hoping for - that LOTR wins
every single category it is
nominated for (Roeper made a statement
on
Ebert & Roeper that he would like it
if LOTR was completely shut out).
- Nicole Kidman, Denzel Washington,
Ian Mckellen, Peter Jackson and
Christopher Nolan winning.
- The Academy realizing the error of
its ways and bringing in Steve Martin
as
a last minute substitute for Whoopi
Goldberg as host.
- The Academy realizing the error of
its ways and giving the Best Picture
and Best Director awards to Memento.
- A reaction shot from Tom Cruise as
Nicole Kidman wins Best Actress (if he
is
there and of course, if she wins).
The Worst Scenarios for me:
- Whoopi having too much screen time.
- Gosford Park, Robert Altman, Sissy
Spacek and Marisa Tomei winning.