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August Box Office Preview

Signs


by Ammar S.

Summer 2002 Winding Down With An Amazing August

The summer heat is cooling down this August, but not before finishing summer 2002 with a bang. July 2002 had its share of mighty surprises, including the under-achievers Men in Black 2, Reign of Fire, K-19, and of course the month’s biggest underachieving surprise, Stuart Little 2. The Powerpuff Girls and The Country Bears were the month’s biggest flops, proving that kid fare this year is not as invincible as it seems.

August 2002 picks up the heat with its share of aliens, comedians, costumes, kid spies, secret agents, retired detectives, surfers, digital actresses, and of course moon nightclub owners. Star-powered mega blockbusters and star-powered independent films should definitely make it an August to remember, and end a record-breaking summer 2002 with a mighty blast!

#1) Signs  (August 2)  Opening: $37m   Total: $170m

Box office titan Mel Gibson returns to theaters after a mere five-month absence in director M. Night Shyamalan’s anticipated Signs. The durable star has consistently churned out box office hits, with his last five wide-released films combining to gross a monstrous $1.08 billion worldwide! Shymalan’s last two films, 1999’s The Sixth Sense and 2000’s Unbreakable, combined to gross over $922 million worldwide. Both of these films starred box office star Bruce Willis. Gibson has opened successful films more consistently than Willis and should provide some mighty star power to the August release. The Sixth Sense opened three years ago with $26 million, on its way to a monstrous $294 million. Unbreakable opened Thanksgiving 2000
with $30 million, on its way to a somewhat disappointing $95 million. Signs should finish its run between Shyamalan’s two previous films, with fairly steady legs.

Signs is perhaps one of the most anticipated films of the summer. It debuts in a very competitive marketplace, tackling the sophomore session of Austin Powers In Goldmember and taking on the Vin Diesel starrer, xXx, in its second frame. Joaquin Phoenix joins Gibson in the mighty thriller, fresh off of the success of his Oscar-nominated performance in Gladiator, which grossed a monstrous $187 million.

A good comparison with Signs could be Harrison Ford’s thriller, What Lies Beneath, which opened in July 2000 with close to $30 million on its way to $155 million. Disney has given their thriller a fantastic promotional campaign, with mysterious and unrevealing trailers that should entice many moviegoers and send them to their local theaters for some genuine scares. The mouse house is likely to put the film in about 3200 theaters, which could display great legs because of positive moviegoer word of mouth, a lack of competitive thrillers in the marketplace and expected critical acclaim.

2) xXx  (August 9)   Opening: $55m   Total: $166m

Rising star Vin Diesel stars in xXx, a high-octane action flick which should have young people rushing to their local movie theaters. This film should also solidify his status on the A-list. xXx could perform similarly to last year’s smash, The Fast and the Furious, which opened in June with $40 million on its way to a smashing $140 million. xXx is Vin’s follow up to Furious and could drive fans furiously to their multiplexes. Helping Diesel will be Samuel L. Jackson, who appeals to both young people and adults, and could broaden the age of xXx’s audiences. The movie also has many things against it though.

For instance, the film enters a very competitive market, as it shares a release date with Spy Kids 2 and Blood Work, and tackles the sophomore weekend of Signs. Regardless, xXx should pull in a large chunk of young people. A very familiar storyline will have little effect on the films box office prospects, as it offers great action sequences and explosions. Sony is likely to put this film in 3000+ theaters, and box office fireworks are surefire. Legs are very questionable, but should be decent due to a lack of good action films over the rest of the summer. xXx should be watched carefully because it has a great chance of pulling an August upset, and finishing ahead of Disney’s Signs.

3) Spy Kids 2  (August 9)   Opening: $31m (5 day)   Total: $85m

Spy Kids 2: Island of Lost Dreams is opening alongside xXx and Bloodwork, and will fill the void of good children’s films in the current marketplace. With Stuart Little 2 and The Country Bears under performing, the field is wide open for a film to sweep children back into their local movie theaters.

Antonio Banderas and Carla Gugino are back in a Spy Kids film after a mere year absence, and could help pull in huge crowds. The original Spy Kids opened in March 2001 with about $27 million, on its way to $113 million. It struck a chord with young moviegoers by offering appealing children adventures and interesting gadgets. Spy Kids 2 does have a relatively open marketplace but could be unappealing to moviegoers who feel that it is practically the same movie as its predecessor. Regardless, sequels have shown a great amount of triumph recently, and Spy Kids 2 should be no different. It could display great legs similarly to last year’s Disney kidpic, The Princess Diaries. Apparently Miramax is so confident with Spy Kids 2 that they have already green lit a Spy Kids 3, set for release in July 2003.

4) Blood Work  (August 9)  Opening: $14m   Total: $67m

Clint Eastwood is back after a two-year absence and could pull in Space Cowboys’ numbers. Eastwood has mass appeal with adult moviegoers and consistently stars in good quality adult fare. Space Cowboys opened in August 2000 with $18 million, on its way to a smashing $90 million. He plays a retired police detective in his latest film, and could churn yet another hit.

Blood Work should grab good reviews from critics and could display some of this summer’s most durable legs. This type of film is exactly what Eastwood fans enjoy, and he should score a decent hit with his latest thriller. Tight competition from Mel Gibson’s Signs could hinder Blood Work’s box office prospects, however, as they both appeal to the same audience but should both survive as the marketplace expands to accommodate the two August releases.

5) Blue Crush  (August 16)   Opening: $17m   Total: $55m

The surfing film, Blue Crush, debuts on August 16, a week after xXx. This movie could be trampled due to the immense competition for young people’s money. Fortunately, Blue Crush offers a lot of female appeal and is the summer’s first major female-skewing flick since last June’s Divine Secrets of the YaYa Sisterhood. Crush could perform similarly to 1999’s Coyote Ugly, which opened with $17 million, on its way to a great $61 million. Michelle Rodriguez from The Fast and the Furious stars in the film, along with Kate Bosworth. Despite a lack of substantial star power, Blue Crush should still find an audience and could post some solid late summer grosses.

Other July Releases:

6) Pluto Nash (August 16)   Opening: $14m   Total: $42m

(A full Pluto Nash spotlight will be appearing soon, focusing on its box office prospects and Eddie Murphy’s depreciating star power)

7) Simone (August 16)   Opening: $13m   Total: $40m

8) Master of Disguise (August 2)   Opening: $10m   Total: $35m

9) Serving Sara (August 23)   Opening: $9.5m   Total: $30m

10) Feardotcom (August 30)   Opening: $11m (4 day)   Total: $28m

11) Undisputed (Release Date N/A)   Opening: $7 million   Total: $24m

12) Slap Her, She’s French (August 30)   Opening: $8m (4 day)   Total: $22m

13) Run Tel Dat (August 2)   Opening: $6.5m   Total: $20m