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Box Office and Predictions Friday Box Office Analysis (7/18)
by Lee Tistaert

Even with fears that an R-rating and a nearly two and a half hour running time could hurt the film's chances, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence took full control of the box office on opening night with Bad Boys II, heading for a weekend take that could possibly crack $50 million.

Playing in 3,186 theaters, Bad Boys II grossed a massive $17.4 million in first day receipts, averaging $5,468 per-screen. The first day intake even overshot the original film's opening weekend figure, which came in at $15.5 million. With its plot somewhat of a James Bond-like route, the film even scorched Die Another Day, which pulled in $16.8 million ($5,075 per-screen) in November of last year (with a PG-13). The figure did not, however, surpass Bruckheimer's own Pearl Harbor, which cooked up $18.7 million (with a three-hour running time).

Whether Bad Boys II hits $50 million this weekend will rely on its second day holdup. Being a pent up summer action sequel, (young) fans may have rushed out opening night to catch the flick immediately; however, with an added bonus of more than one core demographic under its belt (unlike Triple X), older moviegoers might make the difference. Since adults are generally not likely to create a rush factor on opening day, Bad Boys' second day holdover could be relatively smooth. With that in mind, the sequel is on route to a weekend performance in the region of $47 - 51 million.

Despite a blockbuster status overseas, Rowan Atkinson's spy spoof, Johnny English, didn't exactly reign over here, as the comedy took in a moderate $3.1 million. Booked in 2,236 theaters, the Universal release averaged $1,371 per-location. The opening was somewhat in line with the per-screen average of Jackie Chan's The Tuxedo, which grossed $4.6 million on opening day but a $1,521 average in 3,022 theaters.

Johnny English is prone to carry a decent family audience factor a la Tuxedo, which places its chances of a good Saturday increase being relatively promising. Johnny looks to score roughly $9 - 10 million for the weekend frame.

After an impressive (weekend) premiere with A Walk to Remember ($12.2 million - $5,051 per-screen), Mandy Moore's latest, How to Deal, will not capture relevant gold. The teen drama earned $2.8 million in ticket sales on Friday, averaging a tame $1,188 per-screen (compared to Walk's $4.5 million and $1,889 average tally).

The opening was on the same level as other dramatic adolescent genre films, including crazy/beautiful ($1.8 million, but a $1,116 average), Anywhere But Here ($1.9 million, $1,136 average), and Where the Heart is ($3.0 million - $1,218 average). A solid boost on Saturday may not result from How to Deal, but a weekend figure of $8.0 - 8.5 million should follow.


Bad Boys II Total US Box Office: $138.500000 million (All-Time: 419)

Gareth's Review: A summer action film that delivers. [ B ]
Craig's Review: The dumbest action movie to hit theaters this year. [ D ]
Visitor Rating Average: C+ (94 votes)
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