Best Picture
 

Battle #1:
A Beautiful Mind  vs.  The Lord Of The Rings: The Fellowship Of The Ring

I'm not claiming to know who will win in this category or any other category for that matter. It's just becoming increasingly clear who is pulling ahead of the pack.

So, with what has occurred in the lesser of the award shows (and boy, is it just me, or is there just way too many award shows? I can do with just the Oscars and the Golden Globes), here is a list of who and what I feel will at least be front-runners and even who will probably win, along with the reasons why.

If you look at what critics say, Lord of the Rings should win hands down. When a movie is reviewed by 110 critics and 95% of them recommend it (refer to RottenTomatoes.com), you know you have one great movie. Also, the movie still seemed like a long shot until it won the very first AFI best picture award. All of the sudden it became one of the front-runners. Never mind Mullholland Drive winning three best pictures (Boston Society Of Film Critics, NY Film Critics Circle, National Society Of Film Critics) or Moulin Rouge (National Board) and In The Bedroom (Los Angeles Film Critics) winning one each before LOTR won its first.  Of the movies that will get nominated, LOTR is by far my favorite. If Memento were to be nominated it would be a tough choice for me. But unfortunately, Memento has a very small chance of being nominated (due to coming out early in the year and not getting much Oscar push from its small company). LOTR still stands a pretty good chance of winning but it will be tough, as there are no stars that will be nominated (even though I believe Ian Mckellen gave one of the best performances of the year). But with Peter Jackson sure to be nominated for Best Director (making an outstanding picture when no one believed it could be done), the movie will at least get nominated as well.

Although A Beautiful Mind received a less than stellar 78% on RottenTomatoes, and not winning a Best Picture award until after the aforementioned, it has clearly become a favorite to win the "big one". Let's just say that Universal Pictures has done a magnificent job of promoting the movie to the voters of the Golden Globes and will most likely continue promoting it for the Oscars. There are many things that count against the movie. Rumors that it doesn't really show everything that went on in John Forbes Nash Jr.'s life are casting some doubts as to how well the movie follows his legend. But does that really matter? Not according to Broadcast Film Critics Association or the Golden Globes, which both gave it the Best Picture award. One thing that counts for Mind is that it will also receive two actor nominations (for Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly) and most likely for Best Director, Ron Howard. So the movie will get a lot of exposure. But it doesn't always mean that a movie will win if it has many acting nominations. Yet, there is still this feeling that this is the movie to beat this year. And as it continues to stay among the top grossing movies, the buzz just grows more deafening.

But don't count out Moulin Rouge, as it has become a late bloomer with what seems like major Oscar buzz. The movie recently won the Golden Globe for Best Picture in the musical or comedy category. It also won Actress in a Leading Role (Musical or Comedy) for Nicole Kidman. But alas, the movie received a major blow. Nicole Kidman was not nominated for the prestigious SAG awards.

Other films that I see standing a very good chance of at least getting nominated are: 
Mulholland Drive; it's been nominated by almost every award institution and as I stated above, has won three times. The only thing is that the movie might just be too weird for older academy voters.

In the Bedroom I do not fully agree with all critics but the movie did receive a 92% rating on RottenTomatoes. And now with Nicole Kidman taking a knife in the back from her peers, Sissy Spacek has a clear road to victory for lead actress.

Gosford Park - Robert Altman has been a favorite with critics and voters for a long time (as is evident with several wins for Best Director and glowing reviews for the film) and this year seems no different. Although the movie has not won any awards so far it might squeak in with a nomination.