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Weekend Box Office Friday Box Office Analysis (6/20/03)
by Lee Tistaert

It may not have been a phenomenal opening night, but Universal executives should still be very pleased by Sunday, as their latest action picture, The Hulk, stands a chance at claiming up to $70 million over the 3-day weekend frame.

The film raked in a thunderous $24.9 million in first day receipts, averaging a monstrous $6,798 per-screen. The figure, while well below the $31.2 million first-day tally of X2, and far from the $39.4 million gross of Spider-Man (the movie the studio was obviously trying to replicate), is still in line with various big-budgeted Universal releases.

In comparison, the studio’s Mummy Returns grabbed $68.1 million after a $23.4 million (first-day) start-up, while even Jurassic Park: The Lost World gave in to $21.6 million and $72.1 million over the weekend frame. Take into account, however, that the Jurassic Park sequel debuted over Memorial Day when Sunday is traditionally higher than usual.

Hulk’s figure boosted past Universal’s Jurassic Park III as well, which also opened in midsummer and had garnered $19.8 million on its opening day, despite being a Wednesday. If second day sale returns prove to be successful (as in, not declining), Hulk should be in line to retrieve somewhere in the vicinity of The Mummy Returns, with the $70 million mark relying pretty heavily on the flick’s second day business. Being a pent-up comic book flick, the film’s biggest fans were likely to raid theaters on opening night, thus possibly limiting the gross in its following days, however slight.

Whether $70 million or not, with a production budget lurking in the $130 million range, Universal should still make a solid bank (between domestic and international sales). With teens (and even young kids) off for summer now, midweek dailies should be helpful, but with such a comic book release, hold-ups in the coming weeks may not be all that sturdy. Though a $150 million (total) should be fairly in the bag unless the flick rakes in the Daredevil (quality) reception among fans, $200 million should be somewhat out of reach, as most of its dedicated fans will have likely taken the voyage either on opening night or by the sunset of Sunday.

Hulk’s nemesis, Mummy Returns, lured in $202.0 million in the long run domestically, a figure of which the green monster could struggle to overcome. Mummy also had the benefit of being the first big action event of the summer in 2001, as well as solid word of mouth among moviegoers.

Despite Kate Hudson being the Reese Witherspoon of the year so far, her new cutesy romantic comedy, Alex & Emma, alongside Luke Wilson, turned in rather modest/slow sales in first day returns. The Rob Reinder-helmed flick took in $2.4 million on Friday, averaging $1,024 per-screen. Though Warner Bros. seemed to nail television commercial spots steadily nearing the film’s debut, the company failed to ignite the same level of a (movie theater) campaign as the cheery How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, which Paramount marketed (via trailers) just about beautifully.

With Hudson’s adorable charisma in Lose a Guy’s ads, the film sparked significant appeal among its core audience of young females, along with offering a story that couldn’t be any simpler yet couldn’t be any more ideal for its primary audience. That film grossed $23.8 million in debut (after a $7.9 million first night reception earlier this year), a figure that Alex & Emma might not even achieve in its entire run; with summer now in the air, however, Alex’s midweek dailies could assist in accomplishing that destination.

Although Luke Wilson has proven to be a bankable actor this year with the college comedic success, Old School, his presence in the original Legally Blonde film didn’t seem to boost his star-power up too many levels with the female demographics. Wilson, the brother of Owen, is a familiar face that most people know, but despite the promising duo here, audiences look to have avoided what had given the impression of a standard When Harry Met Sally copycat.

Even though cliché and predictable romances are just about all its core demographic screams for these days, Alex & Emma’s ads have never spoken out too deeply to its would-be fans. The film’s premise, which revolves around Wilson’s character as a writer fascinated by the directions of which a story can go, is not exactly the perfect image of a date film. But Hudson’s role, which partially involves taking the position of Wilson’s story’s roles in a cutesy fashion, had the potential to make best friends with female members of the crowd, only to resort to material that really just did not look overly unique.

Despite WB attaching on the obvious tagline, "From Rob Reiner, director of ‘When Harry Met Sally’" in promotional clips, moviegoers didn’t take the bite, which could possibly result in the flick landing slightly under $7 million for the 3-day frame (or slightly over). That tagline may have also hurt Emma’s prosperity chances; with the stories’ obvious similarities being thrown right in front of audiences, along with the fact that most people know who Reiner is without having to be reminded of Sally, WB may have given the wrong illusion via their marketing strategy.

With How to Lose a Guy, female fans very well knew it was yet another remake of all the genre films that had come before it, yet Paramount went full steam, avoiding taglines that would give the image of desperation.

Alex & Emma came within the same perimeters as Paramount’s Matthew Perry/Elizabeth Hurley comedy, Serving Sara, which took in $2.0 million in first day sales and $5.8 million over its 3-day weekend late summer of last year. Alex also reached the same terrain as this year’s box office disappointment, Down with Love, which conquered just $7.1 million in debut even after an explosive exclusive debut in New York one week prior to its national premiere.

Coincidentally, Love and Emma came off like two extremely familiar films of which their studios did not spice up with delicious enough promises in ads (they may not have been able to regardless); consequently, their performances are suffering.


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