This weekend follows the pattern of March 15 and June 14. On March 15, Fox's blockbuster animated comedy, Ice Age hit it big w/ the kiddies, generating a debut in excess of $45M. The same weekend Sony's R-rated video game adaptation, Resident Evil, debuted to a strong $17M (surprising to most considering the R-rating, which led people to believe the core audience of
teens would not be able to see it). However, it had heavy drops in the following weeks. And finally the doomed buddy cop flick which targeted adults, Showtime, debuted to a so-so $15M but horrid word of mouth only allowed the $80M picture to clear about $40M domestically.

Last month, Warner Bros.' embarrassingly bad kids flick, Scooby-Doo, started an unfortunate franchise w/ a huge $54.2M debut. While it had horrendous declines, the film should still end up in the $150M range, setting the stage for a sequel in 2004. But the real surprise of the weekend was the Matt Damon espionage thriller, The Bourne Identity, which debuted to an amazing $27M+; a pleasant surprise for the Oscar winner who hasn't carried a true hit on his own since Good Will Hunting. The film generated superb buzz and is well on its way to entering the $100M club. Like Scooby, Bourne already has a sequel in development and has become the biggest surprise of the summer so far. Finally that weekend was the biggest bomb of the summer, which came in the form of MGM's Windtalkers, which got panned by critics and will end up w/ less than $40M domestically w/ a budget of over $100M.

This weekend Disney unleashes its fantasy epic, Reign of Fire, which has sparked tremendous buzz in recent days. The film's target audience is clearly male teens looking for a kick butt action film and they will probably get it w/ this one. The FX is the main drawing point w/ this one and reviews haven't been that bad. On a personal note I think this one looks rather dull, but I'm not one who enjoys these films. I tend to prefer "plot". A gut feeling tells me this may be headed for Evolution business, but I'm playing it safe and predicting about $24.5M this weekend, which I think will just barely be enough for the top spot.

Ah, finally my most anticipated film of the year comes w/ Sam Mendes' much hyped follow up to his Oscar winning directorial debut, American Beauty. The gangster flick (Road to Perdition) stars Tom Hanks, Jude Law, and Paul Newman and carries a hefty budget of over $80M. While the plot for Road to Perdition couldn't be much more non-commercial for a film opening in July, pedigree alone guarantees a nice opening (not to mention glowing reviews). Hanks has been an unstoppable force at the box office over the past decade and things don't look to change any time soon. DreamWorks is doing a beautiful job marketing this picture and they are going to try w/ a slightly different release method here, releasing the film into less than 2000 locations, hoping to expand at later dates and keep their Oscar hopeful in theaters well into the fall (Oscar pundits are already predicting it to coast to the Best Picture finish line). Road to Perdition could debut to $22.5M.

Kids get The Crocodile Hunter movie, which stars the utterly annoying Steve Irwin, whose TV show has brought him many fans, as well as many people who despise him (me included). The film will surely break even, being that its budget is a mere $13M. So this may be a rare chance for a non-007 profit for MGM, but there isn't enough interest or marketing for a break through debut. But unfortunately, kids will likely drag their parents to see this. Look for Crocodile Hunter to make in the low teens this weekend.

And finally Miramax unleashes the 8th film in their tired Halloween franchise. This one stars Busta Rhymes and Tara Banks. I'm sorry, but this series is getting more ridiculous than the horrible dialogue in Attack of the Clones. Young adults are the main audience for this low budget gore fest, along w/ fans of the series (who should just rent the original). Halloween: Resurrection hopefully will be the last of the series, but that's doubtful. Anyways, enough people will show up opening weekend to turn a profit but clearing $40M domestically will be nearly impossible.