#1) Men In
Black II (July 3) Opening: $106m
(5-day) Total: $238m
Tommy Lee
Jones and Will Smith are back after five
years in the highly anticipated film,
Men in Black II. The original film
debuted Independence Day weekend in 1997
to $51 million and finished with $251m.
Will Smith at the time was just off of
the success of 1996’s Independence Day.
Smith has lost some of his shine with
2000’s The Legend of Bagger Vance and
last year’s
financial disappointment, Ali. All
demographics should rush out to Smith’s
latest film, as it opens on a very good
release date and has something for
everyone. The film will have a 5-day
opening similar to Independence Day in
1996. MIB2 offers thrills, comedy,
romance, action, and sci-fi and has a
lot of potential. It also has many
things against it, though. For instance,
the film enters a very competitive
market and almost looks exactly like the
original Men In Black. Regardless,
moviegoers of all ages will have plenty
of time over the holidays to catch the
men in black. Sony is sure to put this
film in 3400+ theaters and box office
fireworks are surefire. Non-stop
advertisements full of action and fun
have raised awareness to astronomical
levels, as the Independence Day box
office record should be blown away.
#2) Austin Powers in Goldmember (July
26) Opening: $63m Total: $201m
Mike Myers
and the gang are all back in Austin
Powers in Goldmember. The third film in
the series follows 1997’s Austin Powers
and 1999’s Austin Powers II: The Spy Who
Shagged Me, which opened to $54m and
finished with $204m. The series has lost
quite a bit of its shine over the years
and is not as original as it once was.
The film has had some very unappealing
trailers and commercials that should
turn off many people, but does offer a
huge list of cameos from stars Tom
Cruise, Steven Spielberg, Gwyneth
Paltrow, and Britney Spears. The long
list of appearances suggests that the
film may have a very weak script.
Joining the ride is Destiny’s Child
Beyonce Knowles and Michael Caine. New
Line is sure to place the film in 3300+
theaters and will likely attach The Two
Towers trailer to the film. AP3 has a
good release date but should drop at
Planet of the Apes levels due to
negative word of mouth, the must-see
factor for moviegoers and immense
competition from Signs, and xXx during
the following two weeks. In spite of
this, Austin Powers III will bring in
huge crowds and great profits for New
Line and could get Austin Powers IV
green-lit.
#3) Stuart Little 2 (July 19)
Opening: $27m Total: $115m
Stuart Little
is back after a three-year absence and
is bringing a new friend along for the
ride. Melanie Griffith joins the cast as
a bird that catches Stuart’s eye. Sony
has magnificently advertised this film
spoofing Spider-Man and features Geena
Davis, Nathan Lane, and Michael J. Fox
headlining the Sony film whose
predecessor opened in December 1999 to
$15m, finishing with $140m. Stuart
Little had incredible legs and struck a
chord with moviegoers, however, Stuart
Little 2 enters a very competitive kids
market but I have a hunch that it will
bring in huge audiences and display
great legs throughout the second half of
the summer. Stuart Little 2 faces The
Country Bears in its sophomore weekend
and Spy Kids 2 in its fourth frame, but
should still grab tons for Sony. SL2
should have great legs due to mostly
positive reviews and great word of
mouth.
#4) The Road to Perdition (July 12)
Opening: $22m Total: $90m
The very
bankable Tom Hanks stars in the Sam
Mendes follow up to American Beauty and
stars alongside Jude Law and Paul
Newman. The film has Oscar written all
over it and is sure to have critics
drooling. I may regret this, but I think
the film is going to under perform and
go below industry expectations. The film
is far too dark for the moviegoing
public and intense competition will
limit The Road to Perdition’s box office
chances. It opens alongside Reign of
Fire and the sophomore weekend of Men In
Black II and will not open well, but
should display good legs. Perdition will
likely open in a moderate amount of
theaters and may become Tom Hank’s first
film since That Thing You Do to not pass
the century mark. I will probably regret
this prediction a month from now, but my
instincts tell me that this film is
going to disappoint box office wise.
Road to Perdition will most likely be
re-released during Oscar season to
increase its box office take.
#5) Reign of Fire (July 12)
Opening: $24m Total: $75m
Firefighters
battling fire breathing dragons in the
year 2084? The premise is quite out
there but in spite of this, the film has
been advertised immensely by Disney and
offers a lot of great action and special
effects sequences. Matthew McConaughey
and Christian Bale star in the expensive
dragon film, which may pull an upset
during the weekend of July 12. The film
faces Men In Black’s sophomore session
and will need to have great word of
mouth to see any signs of profitability.
Reign of Fire offers no A-list stars but
is sure to get a huge screen count. It
should show no legs whatsoever following
its opening but will bring in large
amounts of young people and science
fiction fans during its opening weekend.
Other July releases...
6) K-19 (July 19) Opening:
$19m Total: $65m
7) Crocodile Hunter (July 12)
Opening: $16m Total: $51m
8) Like Mike (July 3)
Opening: $15m (5 day) Total:
$35m
9) The Powerpuff Girls (July 3)
Opening: $13m (5 day) Total:
$33m
10) The Country Bears (July 26)
Opening: $10m Total: $37m
11) Halloween: Resurrection (July 19)
Opening: $10m Total: $25m
12) Eight Legged Freaks (July 19)
Opening: $8m Total: $22m