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July Predictions

Men in Black II


by Ammar S.

Smoking Hot Summer Keeps Up the Heat in July

The summer heat keeps rising as July comes closer, and the summer box office is only going to get hotter. July 2002 has its oddball of scares, thrills, aliens, basketball stars, crocodiles, girl superheroes, mob bosses, dragons, mice, bears, shagedelic spies, and of course more spiders. But which movies and stars will come out on top?

#1) Men In Black II (July 3)  Opening: $106m (5-day)   Total: $238m

Tommy Lee Jones and Will Smith are back after five years in the highly anticipated film, Men in Black II. The original film debuted Independence Day weekend in 1997 to $51 million and finished with $251m. Will Smith at the time was just off of the success of 1996’s Independence Day. Smith has lost some of his shine with 2000’s The Legend of Bagger Vance and last year’s
financial disappointment, Ali. All demographics should rush out to Smith’s latest film, as it opens on a very good release date and has something for everyone. The film will have a 5-day opening similar to Independence Day in 1996. MIB2 offers thrills, comedy, romance, action, and sci-fi and has a lot of potential. It also has many things against it, though. For instance, the film enters a very competitive market and almost looks exactly like the original Men In Black. Regardless, moviegoers of all ages will have plenty of time over the holidays to catch the men in black. Sony is sure to put this film in 3400+ theaters and box office fireworks are surefire. Non-stop advertisements full of action and fun have raised awareness to astronomical levels, as the Independence Day box office record should be blown away.

#2) Austin Powers in Goldmember (July 26)  Opening: $63m  Total: $201m

Mike Myers and the gang are all back in Austin Powers in Goldmember. The third film in the series follows 1997’s Austin Powers and 1999’s Austin Powers II: The Spy Who Shagged Me, which opened to $54m and finished with $204m. The series has lost quite a bit of its shine over the years and is not as original as it once was. The film has had some very unappealing trailers and commercials that should turn off many people, but does offer a huge list of cameos from stars Tom Cruise, Steven Spielberg, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Britney Spears. The long list of appearances suggests that the film may have a very weak script. Joining the ride is Destiny’s Child Beyonce Knowles and Michael Caine. New Line is sure to place the film in 3300+ theaters and will likely attach The Two Towers trailer to the film. AP3 has a good release date but should drop at Planet of the Apes levels due to negative word of mouth, the must-see factor for moviegoers and immense competition from Signs, and xXx during the following two weeks. In spite of this, Austin Powers III will bring in huge crowds and great profits for New Line and could get Austin Powers IV green-lit.

#3) Stuart Little 2 (July 19)   Opening: $27m   Total: $115m

Stuart Little is back after a three-year absence and is bringing a new friend along for the ride. Melanie Griffith joins the cast as a bird that catches Stuart’s eye. Sony has magnificently advertised this film spoofing Spider-Man and features Geena Davis, Nathan Lane, and Michael J. Fox headlining the Sony film whose predecessor opened in December 1999 to $15m, finishing with $140m. Stuart Little had incredible legs and struck a chord with moviegoers, however, Stuart Little 2 enters a very competitive kids market but I have a hunch that it will bring in huge audiences and display great legs throughout the second half of the summer. Stuart Little 2 faces The Country Bears in its sophomore weekend and Spy Kids 2 in its fourth frame, but should still grab tons for Sony. SL2 should have great legs due to mostly positive reviews and great word of mouth.

#4) The Road to Perdition (July 12)   Opening: $22m   Total: $90m

The very bankable Tom Hanks stars in the Sam Mendes follow up to American Beauty and stars alongside Jude Law and Paul Newman. The film has Oscar written all over it and is sure to have critics drooling. I may regret this, but I think the film is going to under perform and go below industry expectations. The film is far too dark for the moviegoing public and intense competition will limit The Road to Perdition’s box office chances. It opens alongside Reign of Fire and the sophomore weekend of Men In Black II and will not open well, but should display good legs. Perdition will likely open in a moderate amount of theaters and may become Tom Hank’s first film since That Thing You Do to not pass the century mark. I will probably regret this prediction a month from now, but my instincts tell me that this film is going to disappoint box office wise. Road to Perdition will most likely be re-released during Oscar season to increase its box office take.

#5) Reign of Fire (July 12)   Opening: $24m   Total: $75m

Firefighters battling fire breathing dragons in the year 2084? The premise is quite out there but in spite of this, the film has been advertised immensely by Disney and offers a lot of great action and special effects sequences. Matthew McConaughey and Christian Bale star in the expensive dragon film, which may pull an upset during the weekend of July 12. The film faces Men In Black’s sophomore session and will need to have great word of mouth to see any signs of profitability. Reign of Fire offers no A-list stars but is sure to get a huge screen count. It should show no legs whatsoever following its opening but will bring in large amounts of young people and science fiction fans during its opening weekend.

Other July releases...

6) K-19 (July 19)   Opening: $19m   Total: $65m

7) Crocodile Hunter (July 12)   Opening: $16m   Total: $51m

8) Like Mike (July 3)   Opening: $15m (5 day)   Total: $35m

9) The Powerpuff Girls (July 3)   Opening: $13m (5 day)   Total: $33m

10) The Country Bears (July 26)   Opening: $10m   Total: $37m

11) Halloween: Resurrection (July 19)   Opening: $10m   Total: $25m

12) Eight Legged Freaks (July 19)   Opening: $8m   Total: $22m