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March Box Office Preview

by Lee Tistaert

With what was quite possibly one of the best teaser trailers of 2001, Fox is already on a superb track to retrieving powerhouse results from their family feature, Ice Age.

The original teaser to Ice Age really makes you realize the lack of creativity behind many of today's ad-campaigns for films. Even with not much going on in the beginning segments, the first preview for Ice Age grabbed viewers' attention and wouldn't let go until that fatal last moment where the famous Scrat gets squashed by the Mammoth. Just about every audience I experienced the trailer with had the exact same reaction each time, and it was a very supportive and encouraging response.

While I can imagine many box office-goers out there are envisioning a guaranteed Shrek delivery in ticket sales (at least debut wise), I think it is possible but the film could take in a little less. Being one of the hottest teaser previews of 2001, Ice Age is theoretically guaranteed to glide past the opening day performances of The Kid ($3.9 mil; $1,808 per-screen), Snow Dogs ($4.3 mil; $1,851 per-screen), Spy Kids, Chicken Run ($5.3 mil; $2,135 per-screen) and Inspector Gadget ($6.6 mil; $2,361 per-screen), and on my radar the film is flying on target to earning a per-screen average (for opening day) in the high $2000's to low $3000's range, which happens to be about the amount Toy Story 2 ($2,948), Cats & Dogs ($2,968), Shrek ($3,226), The Princess Diaries ($3,272), and Dinosaur ($3,362) performed on their opening days.

Shrek may be the best comparable film for Ice Age to some, but I'm a little questionable on Ice's Saturday increase factor. Shrek upped its business by 51% on its second day, but I've got a hunch that Ice Age may only get a boost of around 30% or so. If that were to take place, then the film would earn about $34.0 million over the weekend. On the other hand, a Shrek opening is entirely possible but Ice Age does lack the big-name voices of Mike Myers, Eddie Murphy and Cameron Diaz versus the much weaker Denis Leary, Ray Romano and John Liguizamo backup Ice age involves. Regardless, Ice Age is still heading for a spectacular opening weekend.

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