The
original teaser to Ice Age really
makes you realize the lack of
creativity behind many of today's
ad-campaigns for films. Even with not
much going on in the beginning
segments, the first preview for Ice
Age grabbed viewers' attention and
wouldn't let go until that fatal last
moment where the famous Scrat gets
squashed by the Mammoth. Just about
every audience I experienced the
trailer with had the exact same
reaction each time, and it was a very
supportive and encouraging response.
While I
can imagine many box office-goers out
there are envisioning a guaranteed
Shrek delivery in ticket sales (at
least debut wise), I think it is
possible but the film could take in a
little less. Being one of the hottest
teaser previews of 2001, Ice Age is
theoretically guaranteed to glide past
the opening day performances of The
Kid ($3.9 mil; $1,808 per-screen), Snow
Dogs ($4.3 mil; $1,851 per-screen), Spy Kids, Chicken Run ($5.3 mil;
$2,135 per-screen) and Inspector
Gadget ($6.6 mil; $2,361 per-screen), and on my
radar the film is flying on target to
earning a per-screen average (for
opening day) in the high $2000's to
low $3000's range, which happens to be
about the amount Toy Story 2 ($2,948),
Cats & Dogs ($2,968), Shrek ($3,226),
The Princess Diaries ($3,272), and
Dinosaur ($3,362)
performed on their opening days.
Shrek may
be the best comparable film for Ice
Age to some, but I'm a little questionable on
Ice's Saturday increase factor. Shrek
upped its business by 51% on its
second day, but I've got a hunch that
Ice Age may only get a boost of around
30% or so. If that were to take place,
then the film would earn about $34.0
million over the weekend. On the other hand, a Shrek
opening is entirely possible but Ice
Age does lack the big-name voices of
Mike Myers, Eddie Murphy and Cameron
Diaz versus the much weaker Denis
Leary, Ray Romano and John Liguizamo
backup Ice age involves. Regardless,
Ice Age is still heading for a
spectacular opening weekend.
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