Box Office & Beyond.  Get The Numbers Here.
Lee's Movie Info > Lee's Last Minute Oscar Picks    Updated: 03/24/02  

Search

 

advanced search   

 
 
 

 

 

Lee's Last Minute Oscar Picks

In the Bedroom

by Lee Tistaert

This year I wasn't very good at getting out Oscar columns of my own, but as it is 5:00 pm PST as I'm writing this (with Oscars in 30 mins), it's either now or never.

In terms of Best Picture, the movie I want to win has an extremely small chance of winning, almost at zero probability. And that would be the one and only In the Bedroom. I saw the film in January and was blown away. The acting, the cinematography, the story...everything fit together like a charm to create an emotional rollercoaster ride.

As for who the Academy will pick, I think it's between A Beautiful Mind, Lord of the Rings and Moulin Rouge, but with Matt Drudge's recent attacks on the Ron Howard release, Beautiful Mind could be smothered in chances. If the old pattern of big Hollywood productions and budgets takes over, Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings could take top honors for Picture. Moulin Rouge has chances, but in all honesty I'm hoping that it doesn't take home the Oscar. While Bedroom likely will not win, I'd rather have A Beautiful Mind take that honor.

Best Director could be between Howard, Altman and Jackson. While the execution of Black Hawk Down represented powerhouse directing, Ridley Scott will probably not receive the award, given the fact of Altman's past career and the hype around Beautiful Mind and Lord of the Rings. David Lynch has chance in there, but the film itself (Mulholland Drive) was not a hit in theaters, which unfortunately can pay a part in that award (maybe he will win, you never know). Plus with a director of such awkward yet genius storytelling techniques, Academy members may lean away.

For Best Actor, in my book Tom Wilkinson would win for Bedroom, but I'm not so sure he can achieve it. Denzel Washington's been receiving some buzz for Training Day and Russell Crowe's got his foot in the door for that opportunity, but I doubt Sean Penn or Will Smith will earn the honor. I'd say it's likely to be either Crowe or Washington, with the slight chance of Wilkinson.

For Actress, I've only seen three of the said flicks. Renee Zellweger, while pulling off her role in Bridget Jones's Diary very well, I don't believe is really worth an actual Academy Award. I didn't find Sissy Spacek as electrifying in Bedroom as some critics proclaimed, but the actress has a solid shot of taking home the award. Halle Berry also has lately received a bonus of buzz for her part in Monster's Ball, of which I haven't seen yet. With all the re-release action of Moulin Rouge, Nicole Kidman as well has a nice chance of winning. Judi Dench's chances are iffy, as Iris was not necessarily an art-house hit yet her winning for Shakespeare in Love could aid in that factor. If I had to take a guess, it would be between Berry, Kidman and Spacek, with Dench being the wild card.

For Supporting Actor, Sexy Beast I thought was over-rated, as while I found Kingsley's character to be one interesting role, I wasn't wow'd. Ethan Hawke I also think should not be even involved in the Oscars this year (how he is included and Gene Hackman for Actor {Royal Tenenbaums} isn't is beyond me), but I've got my eyes on either McKellen or Kingsley to win.

Best Supporting Actress I have a pretty good feeling will go to Jennifer Connelly for Beautiful Mind. The only other one I see as an option is Marisa Tomei for Bedroom, but Connelly almost seems to own the category.

Best Original Screenplay...one word: MEMENTO! The film's not up for enough awards, but if it doesn't win at least screenplay, Nolan's been seriously cheated.

And finally for Adapted Screenplay, I'd personally (in my own awards) pick Ghost World, In the Bedroom or Shrek, but A Beautiful Mind has a shot at it. Lord of the Rings is about the only film I can't see winning for this.

Phew! Only took me 25 minutes. Well, have fun watching the Oscars and stay tuned later tonight for a complete list of Academy Award winners.

Actual Predictions
Picture: A Beautiful Mind
Director: Peter Jackson - Lord of the Rings
Foreign Film: Amelie
Actor: Russell Crowe - A Beautiful Mind
Actress: Sissy Spacek - In the Bedroom
Sup. Actor: Ian McKellen - Lord of the Rings
Sup. Actress: Jennifer Connelly
O. Screenplay: Memento
A. Screenplay: A Beautiful Mind