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Box Office and Predictions Seabiscuit (Movie Preview)
by Stephen Lucas

There may, however, be some surprises in store. Family audiences have proven themselves to be highly lucrative in the past few years, generating such massive hits as "Shrek," "My Big Fat Greek Wedding," and most recently the $300+ million-grossing "Finding Nemo."

If "Seabiscuit" can somehow connect with that group of moviegoers, it could be on a much different path.

Sports-centered dramas such as this one tend to perform well with families; two that stand out in recent memory are 2000's "Remember the Titans" and 2002's "The Rookie." The latter had to work a tad harder to earn its loot (face it, Dennis Quaid isn't as big as Denzel Washington) but nevertheless, strong word-of-mouth for the G-rated film propelled it to success.

Even though "Seabiscuit" is at a PG-13 rating, parents may still feel comfortable taking their kids. First of all, it's being promoted in a very clean, good-hearted manner and second of all, "Pirates of the Caribbean," a harder and more violent PG-13, succeeded in luring this particular crowd. If that's to be the case for "Seabiscuit" as well, then it'll be that much easier for it to perform well.

Also keep in mind that "Seabiscuit" is the first movie in a long time about the sport of horse racing, so don't be surprised if that group of fans makes an impact as well. Online message boards have been lit up about this film for a while now with horseracing fans eager to see Tobey Maguire's latest film. This may be the most dependable of audiences, but granted, it isn't the largest.

If it's difficult to find an audience outside of horseracing fans early on, "Seabiscuit" may have a rather tough time. In order to make what it needs to satisfy Universal's large investment, people will need to first be attracted and then satisfied with the film. Without both of those vital steps, good buzz cannot grow, which is something that this particular film is depending on.

Last summer's "Road to Perdition" comes to mind when I think about the situation that "Seabiscuit" is in, mostly because both are serious, Oscar-friendly dramas being released in the middle of summer. Although "Perdition" had three more marketable leads -- Tom Hanks, Paul Newman, and Jude Law -- the sell was still rather tough (on top of that, it was rated R in contrast to its heavy PG-13 competition).

Critics adored that film and it generated a great deal of early awards buzz, translating into a theatrical gross of $90 million domestically. "Seabiscuit" too is generating Oscar buzz, which I think is due to the under-whelming selection of films released so far this year; some may see hope in this film as I do.

I'm getting increasingly bored with what has been hitting theaters week after week this year, with only a few exceptions. Endless amounts of advertisement are, by this point, growing stale and, like many summers before, the films don't always quite live up to the hype. We all know this, yet we still keep going back, right? "Seabiscuit," however, is an interesting prospect; to pit a drama at the center of a summer consumed with actioneers is a bold move, but remember, it may either work well or flat-out bomb.

I, for one, am looking forward to going to see this film due to my love for "Pleasantville." Director Gary Ross and Maguire first collaborated beautifully, and so I hope that they deliver another excellent film with "Seabiscuit." However, I am not giving it impossible expectations to live up to ("Pleasantville" is in fact my favorite movie off all-time, mind you). Although "Pleasantville" performed well at the box office, grossing nearly $50 million domestically, "Seabiscuit" will need to attract a larger audience. "Pleasantville" is my type of film, but really, it isn't for everyone. The way "Seabiscuit" is being promoted, it looks as though they may have a more marketable film at hand.

Yet however many of us may see "Seabiscuit" as an oasis in this dry field of blockbusters, there may be twice as many who would rather plot down their money again for "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines" than see something heavier and emotionally demanding like "Seabiscuit." I may not be in the latter group, but by knowing people that are in it, I can understand the mentality to some degree – summer is, for many, a time to have fun and be entertained at the movies, which is fine; movies are entertaining, remember?

But for those of us who have seen all the big releases and had mixed reactions to what we've seen (good and bad), this film is interesting. I'll admit that I want to see the "Tomb Raider" sequel as much as any other person (the first was bad, I know, but I just wanna see it, okay?), so you can't say I'm bias. Heck, I'm not even sure which I'll see first, but I will most definitely make a trip to each of them.

Those attracted to previous Tobey Maguire dramas such as "Cider House Rules," "Ice Storm," and "Wonder Boys" may very well be among those seated at "Seabiscuit" when it opens; those who flocked to "Spider-Man" may be elsewhere, but maybe not. The target audience is different for his latest film, but Maguire is a good actor, plain and simple. All things considered, Maguire's name will be put to the test, and like the movie, there's no telling how it'll turn out; younger audiences may have connected with him in "Spider-Man" and may decide to take a shot at "Seabiscuit." Who knows?

Summer is commonly propelled by movies like "Tomb Raider" and "Spider-Man," but that doesn't necessarily mean a film such as "Seabiscuit" doesn't have a shot as well – all bets are off. As we count down the days before a fierce box office race begins, there's time to wonder which way "Seabiscuit" will go. Will it collapse early on, struggling to finish, or will this darkhorse keep a steady pace and finish strong, proud, and as a success?

There's no way to be sure – may the race begin.


Seabiscuit Total US Box Office: $120.147000 million (All-Time: 539)

Gareth's Review: One of the best films of the year. [ A ]
Craig's Review: In a summer where movies have amassed over two hours worth of running time, we finally have one that deserves every second. [ A ]
Lee's Review: While I still think Seabiscuit is sappy and cheesy at times, the directing and cinematography save the show. [ B- ]
Visitor Rating Average: B+ (93 votes)
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