What I've noticed about
Signs is that its ad-campaign has
a touch of that mysterious
Independence Day feel, in that we
may not exactly know what is going on,
but it's that precise point that makes
us want to know more even if the ads are
being very teasing on the matter (saying
a lot without saying much). The
ad-campaign for Signs has been
one of the truly most effective
campaigns I've seen in years, if not
ever. If I am correct, Disney premiered
their approach late 2001, building
intense awareness from film fans and M.
Night Shyamalan's devoted fan base. One
would think that by starting so early in
the game, your product is either that
good that the more-than-half-a-year
anticipation will not kill the
experience, or it is a Godzilla
where the studio will up its looks to the
best of their ability by starting a
campaign one year beforehand, eventually
letting down moviegoers upon its
official debut.
For me personally, I was
intensely looking forward to Signs,
as it was my most anticipated release
for the future. And to my surprise, the
film was even better than I imagined.
Walking in I was probably more
mesmerized by the fact that by 9:00 that
night I would know all the secrets that
moviegoers would be screaming about in
anticipation for the next several
months, and I was extremely fascinated
by how well executed Shyamalan had
Signs. There was not one moment
throughout the feature where my eyes
weren't glued to the screen, constantly
thinking, asking the questions of where
the story was going.
The original Signs
teaser can be somewhat compared to the
premiere Godzilla teaser
featuring a class visiting a museum,
eventually leading to Godzilla's foot
smashing through the roof, with the tail
wagging by as the "ID4"
reference comes to screen. I have to say that teaser
hyped me beyond belief in how fun the
ID4 makers could make Godzilla
be, and the crowd present was under
similar feelings (at that Men in
Black night-before-debut screening
there was a roughly thirty second
cheering and applause period).
Godzilla turned out to be a
disappointment in quality, and at the box
office as well.
For Signs, the
marketing geniuses over at Disney began
their campaign with a bang, revealing
crop signs around the world, revealing
very little in the ways of its plot, yet
at the same time building awareness and
interest like no other. Holding no
dialogue whatsoever outside of Gibson's
teasing as hell remark of, "it's
happening", moviegoers were left to
interpreting the situation. What do
these crop signs mean? Are they a hoax?
Is there something Shyamalan is not
telling us yet? The questions Shyamalan
and his producers are probably giggling
about as we speak (and the folks who've
had the extreme privilege of seeing it
already), knowing all the answers to the
above and keeping as many secrets to
themselves as possible.
The experience of
witnessing all these trailer spots
for Signs reminds us of how fun
it can be in anticipation to a film.
Normally a studio will put out a
standard trailer revealing much of the
plot and even some of the best moments
seen in their project, whereas here in
Signs, there's barely anything
within the ads that point to anything we
want to know. Which to me, I give a big
thumbs up to Disney, as that is how you
can retrieve a roaring reaction.
As I sat in the theater
gazing at the screen, I was looking at
what appeared like a big film. All the
aspects within Signs pointed
towards a special movie that everyone
would want to see. Between the ability
to make the opening credits feel like
event picture type to certain scenes
that to me, without real in-depth
explanations behind, quite simply made
it feel as if the film was going to
retrieve long lines at the ticket booth.
Over the months I've
talked with various people who can't
wait to see the film, and while to some
it could appear as an implausibility,
the interest rate on the film seems
close to on par as when I ran a box
office poll on Monsters, Inc.
(which collected $62.6 million in its
opening) the week prior to the Disney
flick's opening. Many people I know are dying to
see Signs, and many of whom are
wanting to kill me being as though I
already have. While Disney has yet to
release one of their trailers in front
of a big box office hit, M. Night Shyamalan managed to nail the Super Bowl
list, but at the same time still has
some key opportunities including the
slight chance of Mr. Deeds, a
bigger chance with Men in Black II,
possibly Austin Powers 3, and
then it's show-time. Signs was
also showed in front of many We Were
Soldiers audiences, along with
Bad Company. Yet, given the
lackluster performance of the Chris Rock
release, not many eyes were tuned to it.
And my guess is that Signs has
been presented in front of various other
projects along the way unannounced by
online news groups (more so random
theaters' decisions).
Over the years I've
always wondered how much attention via
an ad-campaign a film really needs to
succeed on a high level. Sometimes a
studio needs to go bold and aggressive
for a flick to fly high, while others
need somewhat of a humble yet
creative/effective campaign to capture
the gold. The way I'm seeing it, the ad
spots for Signs have been awesome
and while it hasn't showed in terrific
slots outside of the Super Bowl, it has
captured the minds of millions of folks
already with its very mysterious and
creepy looks. Also going in its favor is
debuting three years to the date
following Shyamalan's big film premiere,
The Sixth Sense, which opened to
$26.7 million, eventually concluding
with $293.5 million domestically.
Sixth Sense was a huge surprise, a
film the producers figured would debut
at fourth place that weekend with
Runaway Bride in town.
After 6th Sense
made the rounds of theaters and
astounded everyone by its Titanic-like
inability to slow down in ticket wise,
Shyamalan came up with another thriller
entitled, Unbreakable (opened to
$30.3 million, ending up at $95.0
million domestically). While there are
there are plenty of filmgoers who did
not appreciate the film, I thought it
was well done, but must say I think
Signs is much better than both
Sixth Sense and Unbreakable,
but more so in the execution of the
mystery/suspense field. I do have a
hunch that there'll be a group of folks
letdown by the conclusion of Signs,
but anyone will have to look me in the
eyes and tell me that the build-up to it
was not one of the best in the genre.
What makes it great is that Shyamalan
mixes reality with the supernatural, yet
nothing seems far-fetched in terms of
material. The believability at least
from my standpoint was always there.
Of what I've seen, the
interest to see Signs is much
greater than both the surprise entrance
of 6th Sense and the expected hit
of Unbreakable. The film I always
tend to be comparing this to is
Independence Day ($50.2 million
launch; $306.1 million finale). Without
spoiling anything, there's a jump in
Signs that reminded me very much of
one in the original Jurassic Park,
which also happened to make $50.2
million in its opening weekend. The jump
in Signs happened to make just
about every audience member jolt in
reaction (including myself), also
resulting in purely loud shrieking
screams from most of the attendance,
which also occurred in JP at the
similar moment.
M. Night Shyamalan,
beginning with The Sixth Sense,
has built up an enormous fan base
ranging from teens to young adults, as
well as adults. And when you can nail
the demographic range like that, it is
simply incredible. Also working in
Signs' favor is that it appears as
though Sony got scared and moved XXX
out of its competition opening weekend,
signaling the potential heat that is
building up surrounding the momentum of
Signs. Whether the
writer/director continues on in the path
of mystery thrillers is unknown, but
here, whether it's his last feature in
the genre or not, Signs will
likely see sellouts galore come opening
night.
One of the questions
I've been pondering since the original
teaser trailer is how wide Disney will
give it in terms of a theater count.
Sixth Sense had a modest 2,161
venues at
the start while Unbreakable
received a much broadened 2,708. If I
were to guess, Signs will get
anything between 2725 to the low 3000
range. In terms of opening night
business, I'm forecasting a per-screen
average of $5450 or so to $7250, as I
really do sense a vibe of BIG business
on the way. $7250 could be a
risky gamble, but how many
predictors actually saw Planet of the
Apes doing about that much the day
before it opened? While one could raise
the argument that Apes had a cult
following, I believe Signs has
gigantic awareness and interest level.
I would think that Mel
Gibson has more star-power than Bruce
Willis, and if that were to turn out to
be true, that factor boosts Signs
even more. Gibson's track record
includes the debuts of $20.2 million for
We Were Soldiers, $33.6 million
for What Women Want, $22.4
million for The Patriot, $21.2
million for Payback, $34.0
million for Lethal Weapon 4,
$19.3 million for Conspiracy Theory
and $34.2 million for Ransom.
Obviously, Gibson has held a career of
mostly $20+ box office launches in terms
of opening weekends, but what Signs
has that none of the above flicks had to
offer is a humungous anticipation rate.
And when you take one of today's top
dollar stars and place him under the
direction of one of the top dollar
writer/directors, the outcome could be
dazzling.
Signs will have
Gibson attracting mostly older
moviegoers, but Shyamalan can target
younger and older crowds alike with his
name alone. And Joaquin Pheonix in the
supporting role will also aid in pulling
in younger audience members. The Disney
flick will also travel the familiar
6th Sense territory of having a
similarly aged Haley Joel Osment
character, Rory Culkin playing Gibson's
son and newcomer, Abigail Breslin as the
younger daughter.
With all the said facts, star-power, interest and awareness
rate, competition and everything in
mind, if Signs debuts in the 2725
- low 3000 theater range, I project an
opening weekend of $45 - 60 million.
Repeat viewings is another issue. The
Sixth Sense was so successful not
just because word of mouth traveled like
crazy, but the ending forced everyone
back at least once to see it all in the
other perspective. My guess is that with
Signs, the moviegoers willing to
go again are more so going to want to
experience the ride itself again than
the trick behind the ending.
Unbreakable didn't even have close
to the repeat viewing status as 6th
Sense, as even the second weekend in
release I couldn't get anyone to join me
for a second viewing of Unbreakable,
as my friends had already seen it with
me the previous week and saw no point in
attending a second time.
One thing I'm really
looking forward to is seeing the
reception among critics. I could see
Signs
being one of the best reviewed films of
the year, as I have yet to read a
negative or mixed review from anyone who
has seen it already (of the seven or
eight reviews I've read online) and
anyone who's read mine knows that I
truly loved the film. I think many will
praise the style of the pacing, as while
it could be labeled as somewhat slow, Shyamalan has attached enough within
what is there that it'll keep your
brains busy in thoughts and looking
ahead. Signs isn't as slow as
The Sixth Sense, but it tosses many
techniques our way to keep us on the
same page as the characters.
And a unique quality
about the film is that while it is
essentially a mystery and suspenseful
tale, it has many moments of complete
freaky territory in store. Whether it is
what we see or what we don't see
(implied), some of the elements are
truly frightening. In fact, it gave me
an after effect a la Blair Witch
that lasted for many days. Whether or
not Signs is the next Sixth
Sense is beyond me, but from what I
can judge, those disappointed with
Unbreakable are probably going to
like Signs, if not love it. The
anticipation for the M. Night Shyamalan
release has been sky-high, and my guess
is that the reaction (quality wise) for
many if not millions will be on the same
level.