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'Signs' Box Office Outlook

Signs

by Lee Tistaert

I decided to write a column so early given my latest vibes of Signs exploding at the box office. Having seen the film itself late April, I know what moviegoers are walking into on August 2. And with some films, by watching the flick you can judge whether or not it feels like a box office hit and with Signs, the atmosphere created was along the lines of an event picture.

What I've noticed about Signs is that its ad-campaign has a touch of that mysterious Independence Day feel, in that we may not exactly know what is going on, but it's that precise point that makes us want to know more even if the ads are being very teasing on the matter (saying a lot without saying much). The ad-campaign for Signs has been one of the truly most effective campaigns I've seen in years, if not ever. If I am correct, Disney premiered their approach late 2001, building intense awareness from film fans and M. Night Shyamalan's devoted fan base. One would think that by starting so early in the game, your product is either that good that the more-than-half-a-year anticipation will not kill the experience, or it is a Godzilla where the studio will up its looks to the best of their ability by starting a campaign one year beforehand, eventually letting down moviegoers upon its official debut.

For me personally, I was intensely looking forward to Signs, as it was my most anticipated release for the future. And to my surprise, the film was even better than I imagined. Walking in I was probably more mesmerized by the fact that by 9:00 that night I would know all the secrets that moviegoers would be screaming about in anticipation for the next several months, and I was extremely fascinated by how well executed Shyamalan had Signs. There was not one moment throughout the feature where my eyes weren't glued to the screen, constantly thinking, asking the questions of where the story was going.

The original Signs teaser can be somewhat compared to the premiere Godzilla teaser featuring a class visiting a museum, eventually leading to Godzilla's foot smashing through the roof, with the tail wagging by as the "ID4" reference comes to screen. I have to say that teaser hyped me beyond belief in how fun the ID4 makers could make Godzilla be, and the crowd present was under similar feelings (at that Men in Black night-before-debut screening there was a roughly thirty second cheering and applause period). Godzilla turned out to be a disappointment in quality, and at the box office as well.

For Signs, the marketing geniuses over at Disney began their campaign with a bang, revealing crop signs around the world, revealing very little in the ways of its plot, yet at the same time building awareness and interest like no other. Holding no dialogue whatsoever outside of Gibson's teasing as hell remark of, "it's happening", moviegoers were left to interpreting the situation. What do these crop signs mean? Are they a hoax? Is there something Shyamalan is not telling us yet? The questions Shyamalan and his producers are probably giggling about as we speak (and the folks who've had the extreme privilege of seeing it already), knowing all the answers to the above and keeping as many secrets to themselves as possible.

The experience of witnessing all these trailer spots for Signs reminds us of how fun it can be in anticipation to a film. Normally a studio will put out a standard trailer revealing much of the plot and even some of the best moments seen in their project, whereas here in Signs, there's barely anything within the ads that point to anything we want to know. Which to me, I give a big thumbs up to Disney, as that is how you can retrieve a roaring reaction.

As I sat in the theater gazing at the screen, I was looking at what appeared like a big film. All the aspects within Signs pointed towards a special movie that everyone would want to see. Between the ability to make the opening credits feel like event picture type to certain scenes that to me, without real in-depth explanations behind, quite simply made it feel as if the film was going to retrieve long lines at the ticket booth.

Over the months I've talked with various people who can't wait to see the film, and while to some it could appear as an implausibility, the interest rate on the film seems close to on par as when I ran a box office poll on Monsters, Inc. (which collected $62.6 million in its opening) the week prior to the Disney flick's opening. Many people I know are dying to see Signs, and many of whom are wanting to kill me being as though I already have. While Disney has yet to release one of their trailers in front of a big box office hit, M. Night Shyamalan managed to nail the Super Bowl list, but at the same time still has some key opportunities including the slight chance of Mr. Deeds, a bigger chance with Men in Black II, possibly Austin Powers 3, and then it's show-time. Signs was also showed in front of many We Were Soldiers audiences, along with Bad Company. Yet, given the lackluster performance of the Chris Rock release, not many eyes were tuned to it. And my guess is that Signs has been presented in front of various other projects along the way unannounced by online news groups (more so random theaters' decisions).

Over the years I've always wondered how much attention via an ad-campaign a film really needs to succeed on a high level. Sometimes a studio needs to go bold and aggressive for a flick to fly high, while others need somewhat of a humble yet creative/effective campaign to capture the gold. The way I'm seeing it, the ad spots for Signs have been awesome and while it hasn't showed in terrific slots outside of the Super Bowl, it has captured the minds of millions of folks already with its very mysterious and creepy looks. Also going in its favor is debuting three years to the date following Shyamalan's big film premiere, The Sixth Sense, which opened to $26.7 million, eventually concluding with $293.5 million domestically. Sixth Sense was a huge surprise, a film the producers figured would debut at fourth place that weekend with Runaway Bride in town.

After 6th Sense made the rounds of theaters and astounded everyone by its Titanic-like inability to slow down in ticket wise, Shyamalan came up with another thriller entitled, Unbreakable (opened to $30.3 million, ending up at $95.0 million domestically). While there are there are plenty of filmgoers who did not appreciate the film, I thought it was well done, but must say I think Signs is much better than both Sixth Sense and Unbreakable, but more so in the execution of the mystery/suspense field. I do have a hunch that there'll be a group of folks letdown by the conclusion of Signs, but anyone will have to look me in the eyes and tell me that the build-up to it was not one of the best in the genre. What makes it great is that Shyamalan mixes reality with the supernatural, yet nothing seems far-fetched in terms of material. The believability at least from my standpoint was always there.

Of what I've seen, the interest to see Signs is much greater than both the surprise entrance of 6th Sense and the expected hit of Unbreakable. The film I always tend to be comparing this to is Independence Day ($50.2 million launch; $306.1 million finale). Without spoiling anything, there's a jump in Signs that reminded me very much of one in the original Jurassic Park, which also happened to make $50.2 million in its opening weekend. The jump in Signs happened to make just about every audience member jolt in reaction (including myself), also resulting in purely loud shrieking screams from most of the attendance, which also occurred in JP at the similar moment.

M. Night Shyamalan, beginning with The Sixth Sense, has built up an enormous fan base ranging from teens to young adults, as well as adults. And when you can nail the demographic range like that, it is simply incredible. Also working in Signs' favor is that it appears as though Sony got scared and moved XXX out of its competition opening weekend, signaling the potential heat that is building up surrounding the momentum of Signs. Whether the writer/director continues on in the path of mystery thrillers is unknown, but here, whether it's his last feature in the genre or not, Signs will likely see sellouts galore come opening night.

One of the questions I've been pondering since the original teaser trailer is how wide Disney will give it in terms of a theater count. Sixth Sense had a modest 2,161 venues at the start while Unbreakable received a much broadened 2,708. If I were to guess, Signs will get anything between 2725 to the low 3000 range. In terms of opening night business, I'm forecasting a per-screen average of $5450 or so to $7250, as I really do sense a vibe of BIG business on the way. $7250 could be a risky gamble, but how many predictors actually saw Planet of the Apes doing about that much the day before it opened? While one could raise the argument that Apes had a cult following, I believe Signs has gigantic awareness and interest level.

I would think that Mel Gibson has more star-power than Bruce Willis, and if that were to turn out to be true, that factor boosts Signs even more. Gibson's track record includes the debuts of $20.2 million for We Were Soldiers, $33.6 million for What Women Want, $22.4 million for The Patriot, $21.2 million for Payback, $34.0 million for Lethal Weapon 4, $19.3 million for Conspiracy Theory and $34.2 million for Ransom. Obviously, Gibson has held a career of mostly $20+ box office launches in terms of opening weekends, but what Signs has that none of the above flicks had to offer is a humungous anticipation rate. And when you take one of today's top dollar stars and place him under the direction of one of the top dollar writer/directors, the outcome could be dazzling.

Signs will have Gibson attracting mostly older moviegoers, but Shyamalan can target younger and older crowds alike with his name alone. And Joaquin Pheonix in the supporting role will also aid in pulling in younger audience members. The Disney flick will also travel the familiar 6th Sense territory of having a similarly aged Haley Joel Osment character, Rory Culkin playing Gibson's son and newcomer, Abigail Breslin as the younger daughter.

With all the said facts, star-power, interest and awareness rate, competition and everything in mind, if Signs debuts in the 2725 - low 3000 theater range, I project an opening weekend of $45 - 60 million. Repeat viewings is another issue. The Sixth Sense was so successful not just because word of mouth traveled like crazy, but the ending forced everyone back at least once to see it all in the other perspective. My guess is that with Signs, the moviegoers willing to go again are more so going to want to experience the ride itself again than the trick behind the ending. Unbreakable didn't even have close to the repeat viewing status as 6th Sense, as even the second weekend in release I couldn't get anyone to join me for a second viewing of Unbreakable, as my friends had already seen it with me the previous week and saw no point in attending a second time.

One thing I'm really looking forward to is seeing the reception among critics. I could see Signs being one of the best reviewed films of the year, as I have yet to read a negative or mixed review from anyone who has seen it already (of the seven or eight reviews I've read online) and anyone who's read mine knows that I truly loved the film. I think many will praise the style of the pacing, as while it could be labeled as somewhat slow, Shyamalan has attached enough within what is there that it'll keep your brains busy in thoughts and looking ahead. Signs isn't as slow as The Sixth Sense, but it tosses many techniques our way to keep us on the same page as the characters.

And a unique quality about the film is that while it is essentially a mystery and suspenseful tale, it has many moments of complete freaky territory in store. Whether it is what we see or what we don't see (implied), some of the elements are truly frightening. In fact, it gave me an after effect a la Blair Witch that lasted for many days. Whether or not Signs is the next Sixth Sense is beyond me, but from what I can judge, those disappointed with Unbreakable are probably going to like Signs, if not love it. The anticipation for the M. Night Shyamalan release has been sky-high, and my guess is that the reaction (quality wise) for many if not millions will be on the same level.