Spider-Man will attempt to become one of only twelve comic book movies to make it over the $100 million mark at the domestic box office. Only eleven comic book flicks have achieved that milestone (the movies mentioned above and the following: Superman - $134 million, The Mask - $120 million, Superman II - $108 million, Batman & Robin - $107 million, Dick Tracy - $103 million and Casper - $100 million).

Will Spider-Man make over $100 million? That's like asking what 1+ 1 equals. Both answers are no-brainers. The question really is, will Spider-Man make over $200 million, making it only the third comic book to silver screen adaptation to do so? The truth is that people are flocking to movies as of late. Last year was a record setting year with six 2001 releases making over $200 million. There were five movies that opened with over $60 million on their opening weekend.

This year box office numbers are already higher than the same time last year. Ice Age is on its way to make $180 - 200 million. LOTR has made about $150 million in 2002 (the rest of the $300 million was made in 2001). A Beautiful Mind has grossed about $150 million in 2002. Black Hawk Down managed over $100 million and Panic Room is closing in on it.

Opening weekends have become more and more important in the movie industry over the last few years. No longer do movies spend months on end in theaters and steadily grow in box office revenue. You have to open big to have a chance of at least making your money back. Now the question of Spider-Man making $100 million should be answered within a week of its release. My guess is that it will be one of the higher ranking openings in box office history. The last big comic book to big screen adaptation was X-Men, which opened with $54 million and went on to make three times its opening weekend by the end of its run (X-Men's opening weekend is the biggest of all time for a comic book adaptation, followed by Batman Forever with $52 million and MIB with $51 million).

I have said earlier that the Spider-Man will likely open around at least $60 million, but as the release draws near and the buzz becomes more deafening, I have a feeling that this movie is going to open above expectations. As of now I am agreeing more with what Lee's early prediction is, right around $75 - $80 million for opening weekend.

The biggest thing that Spider-Man has to worry about is of course the release of Attack of the Clones a short two weeks later. Spider-Man has to make as much as it can since AOTC will cut into its grosses a great deal. But if Spider-Man opens with let's say $75 million and drops to about $40 million in its sophomore weekend, it could have between $140 and 150 million once AOTC rolls around. It all depends on how well the movie is received by those that see it the first weekend. Spider-Man could possibly suffer a 50+% drop in its second weekend. If its drop is larger than 50%, then Sony can forget about making over $200 million.

If Spider-Man can hold on for a strong third weekend opposite AOTC, it has the long Memorial Day weekend to look forward to in its fourth weekend in release to add more to its total. The trailers for Spider-Man look amazing and Raimi seems to have done an incredible job with this film. It might not get the reviews or the grosses of LOTR, but I believe that fans will regard it as done just the way they imagined Spider-Man should be done.

Tobey Maguire at first didn't seem like the logical choice, but I think he's proven that he would go the extra mile to play Spider-Man, as well as add more depth. Willem Dafoe is in the role he was meant to play and with his acting talent, he will bring much more to the Spider-Man legend than most of the Batman villains have (especially Arnold Schwarzenneger and Uma Thurman). I have heard that some fans don't appreciate Kirsten Dunst being in the movie, but she is a good actress. Though she might not have that much to work with here.

The bottom line is that Spider-Man will start off the summer movie season similar to last year's The Mummy Returns (which opened with an unbelievable $68 million). The difference is that it will make more over summer than Mummy did. Spider-Man should end its run with around $250 million. No, make that $252 million (beating the top grossing comic book adaptation, Batman, by $1 million).