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Weekend Box Office Friday Box Office Analysis (7/25)
by Lee Tistaert

Whether anyone expected it or not is another issue, but the latest Spy Kids adventure (offered in 3-D) topped the box office on Friday even over Lara Croft, hinting at a weekend gross of close to $30 million if opening day sales were not terribly frontloaded.

For those who remember forecasts of last summer, I find it amusing that last time I went overboard on Spy Kids 2 with $30 million, eventually being a very good distance off. Well, that prediction doesn't seem too crazy now...

Predictions aside, it seems that the 3-D offering literally placed the film into another dimension of anticipation, as part three raked in a monstrous $11.7 million in ticket sales, averaging $3,484 per-screen. The tally more than doubles the first day take of Spy Kids 2, which landed at $5.2 million on its way to a $16.7 million 3-day weekend. Part one, on the other hand, launched to $6.8 million Friday with a $26.6 million weekend frame.

The only real threat that challenges Spy Kids 3-D at this point is the possibility of Friday being extremely heavy in pent-up demand. If kids rushed out to see the nifty 3-D version much like the first day rush of Rugrats Go Wild ($4.6 million Friday and $11.6 million weekend), the Robert Rodriguez sequel would capture a relevant weekend figure as the original installment. That being said, the film should be headed for a 3-day gross in the region of $28 - 32 million.

Paramount's latest Lara Croft escapade, Tomb Raider: Cradle of Life, debuted much like the studio's own Star Trek: Nemesis last December, grossing $8.6 million for $2,683 per-screen (Nemesis, in comparison, took in $7.7 million, averaging $2,852 per-screen).

The Anjelina Jolie sequel evidently looks like it's out of oxygen already, and what may not help is the danger of the same sized daily falls as Nemesis was a victim of. Star Trek fell to $6.6 million on Saturday with a $4.2 million Sunday, leading to a $18.5 million weekend frame. Cradle of Life's performances may not be as embarrassing, but looks to score roughly $22 million.

Seabiscuit extinguished box office fears with its first day performance, earning $6.2 million for a bustling $3,138 average. The opening day figure came close to matching Road to Perdition's $6.7 million take ($3,725 per-screen) and locked in with The Bourne Identity's opening night per-screen average, which was $3,285 (and was also based on a popular novel). For the weekend, Seabiscuit looks on course for a gross of around $20 million.


Spy Kids 3D Total US Box Office: $111.761000 million (All-Time: 607)

Gareth's Review: Will likely only interest younger viewers. [ C ]
Visitor Rating Average: C (31 votes)
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