Okay, it's great but I was actually expecting a little more than what occurred last month. In last month's State of of Movies column I mentioned that at least four movies released in March could cross the $100 million mark. While the verdict is still out on Blade II and Panic Room, only one other movie crossed the $100 million mark (Ice Age). Two other movies that were supposed to do better were the Mel Gibson war movie, We Were Soldiers and the Guy Pearce time traveling picture, The Time Machine.

First of all, let me discuss the blockbuster Ice Age. Last month I predicted that the movie "could actually reach the $150 million mark...Ice Age could gross anywhere from $125 - 175 million." I was a little more optimistic than other predictors about how the movie would do at the box office. Turns out that I was right. After besting the previous March opening record by more than 30% with a $46 million opening, the movie grossed $117 million by the end of the month.  In its third weekend it was still ranked second with about $18.5 million! By the end of its run the movie should have $170 - 190 million.

The second best opening of the month was the vampire action sequel, Blade II, bringing in $32.5 million in its first weekend. With an opening like that the movie is a lock to gross over $100 million, right? Not so fast. As I said last month, Blade 2 will open big but "it will most likely see a huge decline in its second weekend." The drop in its second weekend was almost 60% to $13 million. After ten days the flick has grossed about $55 million. It's not bad but the movie won't make $100 million, unless the decline in its third weekend is 25 - 30%. Blade 2 will most likely end its run with $80 - 90 million which is still very good.

The Jodie Foster/David Fincher thriller, Panic Room had the third biggest opening in March 2002 in the last weekend of the month. Final figures puts the total at $30.1 million. I would surmise that this movie would decline less than Blade II in its second weekend; maybe around 40 - 50%, which would give it a sophomore weekend gross of $15 - 18 million and a total of around $55 million in ten days. I know, it's the same as what Blade II had after ten days but Panic Room would have made up the $2.5 million it was behind after opening weekend. And if it makes at least $15 million, the movie should make it to exactly $100 million (to figure out how a movie will do, multiply the first weekend by four. That should be the total it will end up with, which means Panic should make $120 million. But with a movie that opens so big, there should be a bigger decline than usual. So, after its second weekend, take that total, multiply it by three and you should come up with the ballpark figure. So, if Panic Room makes $15 million in its second weekend for a total of $55 million, you multiply 15 times three which gives you $45 million. Add that to $55 million and you have $100 million). Of course, Panic could get the great word of mouth that it deserves and end up with at least $120 million.

We Were Soldiers turned out to be less of a hit than I expected. In the Weekend Outlook I predicted $20 million for its opening weekend which was correct, and meant that the movie should make at least $80 million, but it might not quite make that, though it will be close. But you would expect a Mel Gibson movie to do a little better over time. By the end of March its total stood at $67 million. Soldiers should end up with about $75 - 80 million. Look for his collaboration with M. Night Shyamalan in August's Signs to be much more fruitful.

Damn was I way off on the E.T. re-issue or what? The movie opened with a pathetic $14 million. My prediction for opening weekend was $40 million! E.T. won't even make $40 million in its entire run! Go ahead and laugh. The movie did make less than every predictor had thought but my prediction was way out there. Most likely the worst prediction I have ever made. My reasoning was that families would flock to it like they had the previous weekend for Ice Age and it is a classic after all.

In it's second weekend, E.T. fell along the same lines as Blade II, dropping 57%! This experience much be as disappointing to Spielberg as the whole A.I. fiasco. Maybe he should stay away from movie titles that are abbreviations and two letters long (E.T. and A.I.). Okay, it's not all that bad. E.T. has already jumped into the third spot past Phantom Menace for all time top grossing movies. It just won't jump over the number two movie, Star Wars. Plus, his next movie, Minority Report is my pick to be the fourth highest grossing movie of the summer (behind Attack of the Clones, Spider-Man and MIB2). I could see the movie starring Tom Cruise making close to $200 million.

Turns out that I wasn't the only one that hated Guy Pearce's The Time Machine. While the movie opened with great numbers ($22.6 million), it fell quickly because of poor word of mouth.  By its fourth weekend in theaters the movie wasn't even in the top ten anymore! Time Machine had some truly great effects but this is a movie that proves that you need more than special effects to make it a success. The story (following the classic book) was just too ridiculous. The movie ended up grossing about $50 million.

And I guess the Robert De Niro/Eddie Murphy action comedy, Showtime was even worse than Time Machine. With two successful stars I thought that the movie was going to make a lot more, but by its third weekend in release the movie had dropped to number ten of the top grossing movies. Its total by the end of March was $33 million and should end up with about $42.5 million.

Resident Evil surprised many with its big $17.7 million opening, but the same thing happened to it as with Blade II and The Time Machine as it dropped steeply in its second weekend, and dropped out of the top ten by its third weekend. It should end up with about $40 million.

Disney's The Rookie opened pretty big ($15 million) and should drop little from week to week, probably ending with close to $50 million in box office receipts.

Clockstoppers opened with an average $10 million and should end up with about $30 - 40 million.

I know that many people knew about Death to Smoochy since everywhere you go on the internet, the movie's ads popped up. I guess people just didn't care much. Maybe they were annoyed by the ads on the internet and refused to see it. Smoochy brought in a very low $4 million in its first weekend and will be lucky to make $15 million.

40 Days and 40 Nights did pretty good for itself, making close to $40 million. For an R-rated movie with only one recognizable star (Josh Hartnett), that amount is better than expected.

Other disappointments for the month of March include the action comedy, All About The Benjamins (less than $30 million gross) and Sorority Boys (less than $10 million).

Lord of the Rings finally crossed the $300 million mark on the last weekend of March. During March it also crossed the $500 million mark in overseas grosses, meaning that the movie has already made over $800 million worldwide (the exact figures aren't available but LOTR should have passed Independence Day for the #5 top grossing movie worldwide by now and is close to passing ID4 for the #10 spot on the domestic list). With a price tag of $270 million for making the entire trilogy, the first movie alone has made three times that amount with the next two installments coming out December 2002 and 2003.

Harry Potter is #7 on the domestic list with $316 million and has jumped into second place on the all time worldwide list with over $935 million (Titanic still has a comfortable lead with $1.835 billion worldwide, a figure that might not get passed for another 15 or 20 years once inflation catches up).

April

This month most likely will have less $20 million openings than March had $30 million openings. If you look at the list of movies coming out this month you might see a possibility of one or maybe two movies opening over $20 million. Actually, it will be surprising if three movies open higher than $10 million. That's okay, people probably need to save their money for the monstrous summer months coming up.

The biggest movie of the month should be The Scorpion King, a prequel to the hits: The Mummy and The Mummy Returns. Reprising his role as the Scorpion King from Mummy Returns, The Rock should not expect an opening like either of the Mummy movies (the first one opened with over $40 million and the sequel opened with over $60 million), but I think that it will do much better than some are expecting. There are many Rock fans out there and the movie will benefit from the huge ad-campaign that it has received. It will open big but it will have to make money quickly before it gets lost in the shuffle over the summer, starting only two weeks later with Spider-Man. Don't laugh, but I think this movie stands a chance of making at least $80 million, but look for it to make anywhere between $60 and $100 million. I would have brought the movie out a week or two earlier to give it some more breathing room.

A movie that could actually open pretty big but fall as much as Blade II in its second weekend is Jason X. When seeing the ridiculous previews in theaters I've actually heard other audience members say that they "have to see that".  Jason in space? Jason becoming half cyborg? Well, at least it has a little more imagination than the previous hundred Jason movies I guess. I'm going out on a limb here: Jason is going to kill a few young pretty faces and then the innocent looking, quiet virgin is going to kill him in the end (maybe releasing him into outer space). Then Jason 11 could be Jason vs Aliens or Jason vs Predator as he lands on an alien planet! No, that would be too ridiculous (of course we have gone way passed that point with the Jason movies).

Still, Jason X could see an opening in the teens and maybe end with about $30 - 40 million. I've heard that the Ben Affleck/Samuel L. Jackson movie, Changing Lanes is really bad. Still, with two stars like them the movie should survive and make some good money, right? Well, just look at how Showtime did. Changing Lanes could have similar results. The movie could open over $10 million but if its as bad as they say then it should drop quickly. Look for the film to make $30 - 40 million.

The movie that I am looking forward to the most in April is Life, or Something Like It, starring the newly crowned "the world's perfect body (by Vogue)" Angelina Jolie. And no, I'm not excited to see the "perfect body", but rather the story. Angelina Jolie plays a TV journalist who finds out from a homeless man that she will die within a week. The man also makes other predictions that come true and Jolie's characters starts believing that she will die. The movie is coming out on the last weekend of the month, just one week before Spider-Man but is likely to attract mostly females that might not be too enthusiastic about seeing Spider-Man. Life could receive good word of mouth and make $30 - 50 million.

Another female star with hits in the past is coming out with a different kind of role, playing a homicide detective. Sandra Bullock will star in the suspense thriller, Murder by Numbers. It is probably the darkest movie that she has come out in and the previews look interesting enough to get some good reviews and some interest from moviegoers. The R-rating will limit the possibility of big numbers, so Murder will probably make less than $40 million.

Ashley Judd, Morgan Freeman and Jim Caviezel will star in the military courtroom thriller, High Crimes. Premiering early in the month, the movie might actually do pretty good before the onslaught of summer movies. Opening in a good amount of theaters, High Crimes will be interesting to see if the movie catches on with its two established stars (Judd and Freeman) and another rising star (Caviezel). The last time that Judd and Freeman collaborated on a movie, it made over $60 million (Kiss the Girls), and it's been a while since Judd has had a movie that made over $40 million (Double Jeopardy made $116 million in 1999). I'm afraid that High Crimes will suffer a similar fate, since there aren't too many moviegoers that know about it. Look for it to make $30 - 40 million.

I know that there are some people that are really looking forward to Big Trouble, so it's surprising that the movie is premiering in less than 2,000 theaters. The studio must remember the awful returns on Tim Allen's last movie, Joe Somebody. Big Trouble will make in the area of $25 million in it's entire theater run.