Was November an interesting month or what?

Well, everyone knew that Harry Potter would do great.  But who would've guessed that it would make $90.3 million in it's opening weekend (I was pretty close though in my Weekend Outlook column).  But since then my prediction has fallen a little short.  I thought that it would make $200 million by the end of the second weekend, but it actually passed that mark on the last day of the month of November.  Harry Potter currently stands at just over $200 million, and it took just 15 days.  There was talk that it would hit the double century mark faster than Phantom Menace, but the Star Wars movie still holds that record at 13 days.  Potter also tied the record with Menace for fastest to $100 million (5 days).  But the magic is slowly fading, and in a huge upset, the new film Behind Enemy Lines, beat it for Friday, the 30th of November.  But as Lee has stated, Harry Potter should still take top honors for the weekend, since Saturday has been it's biggest day of the previous two weekends.  In my last "State Of Movies" column I predicted that Potter would make at least $250 million domestically, and it will probably hit that mark by the end of next weekend or soon thereafter.  For a final tally it looks to make between $300-350 million.

Overseas Harry Potter has shattered all kinds of records as well.  By the end of it's second weekend overseas, the movie had already made $77 million, and set opening weekend records in countries such as Germany, Brazil, Sweden and Austria.

As far as all-time lists are concerned, Harry Potter should end up taking away the number six spot from Forrest Gump ($329 million) domestically, and could possibly make the top 5 (the original Jurassic Park made $357 million domestically).  As far as making the top five in overseas box office, Potter has a long way to go.  Number one overseas is of course Titanic ($1.234 billion), followed by Jurassic Park with $563 million.  Potter will have to make another $400 million or so to pass number five on the overseas list (Lion King - $459 million).

November got off to an incredible start to say the least, as Monsters Inc. performed high above what anybody had predicted, making $62 million in its opening weekend.  My paltry prediction of $37.5 million for the opening weekend was closer for the second weekend.  Since then Monsters has just been a money making machine.  And thanks to a Thanksgiving holiday weekend, and Harry Potter shows being sold out, people kept flooding theaters to catch the one-eyed monster.  Monsters will pass the $200 million mark this weekend, on its way to close to $250 million for its domestic run, falling just short of the big green enemy Shrek ($263 million), but might beat previous Pixar record holder, Toy Story 2 ($245 million).  And to think my prediction was $150 million.

As for the other movies that I mentioned last month:  The One had a wonderful $20 million opening weekend, but fell quickly out of the top ten, making less than $50 million (I liked the movie...Oh well).  Shallow Hal did a little better, opening with $22 million (to date it's made $58 million, and will finish in the area of $70 million).  And damn, was I way off with Black Knight or what?  So far the Martin Lawrence medieval comedy has earned less than $20 million, on its way to a $40 - $50 million total.  Spy Game had a successful campaign over the long holiday weekend and will end its domestic run around $75 million.

So, how do you top a month like November?  Well, you bring out another movie based on popular books.  Lord Of The Rings will be huge, but not as big as Harry Potter.  At least not at first.  The near three hour running time of the first movie of a trilogy will hamper its opening weekend, and has no chance of beating Harry Potter's record.  But with the popularity of Lord Of The Rings stretching over generations, this movie could have some major staying power, especially if you take into consideration the early buzz of people that have been lucky enough to see the movie.  Rolling Stone calls it "the best movie of the year".  Rings does open on a Wednesday (DEC19), and should make some good money by the end of the first weekend.  But look for the success to continue far into next year.  Rings should end up grossing over $300 million domestically.

For the older crowd there is the highly anticipated, star filled Ocean's 11.  George Clooney has gathered an all star cast and director to bring to life a classic Rat Pack movie.  There's Brad, Julia, Matt, Don and Andy, and rising stars Scott Caan and Casey Affleck, directed by last year's hottest director, Steven Soderbergh (Traffic and Erin Brockovich).  How can you go wrong with people like that?  Well, you can't.  This movie is going to be huge.  Okay, not as big as Potter or Rings, or Monsters Inc. for that matter, but this movie should make over $150 million domestically.  Especially with the ingenious (and highly annoying) internet ad campaign.  If you have internet (which you probably have if you're reading this), then you have had to run across the ad.

Then you have another highly anticipated movie about the most recognized person in the world, Ali.  Will Smith, in what will probably turn out as the defining role of his career, plays the man that "floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee".  Just from the previews you can already hear the little golden guy knocking on Mr. Smith's door.  Directed by Michael Mann (Heat, Last Of The Mohicans and the Insider), this movie has Oscar written all over it.  Not only does Will Smith act wonderfully, but early buzz is that Jon Voight and Jamie Foxx are excellent as well.

But how will this translate into box office gold?  After all, Mann's Heat and The Insider were critical successes, but not so at the box office.  But still, this is a movie about the greatest boxer of all time, and everyone knows the name.  This movie should make somewhere between $125 and $150 million.

Let me ask you something.  How pissed are you at what Mr. Tom Cruise did to the lovely Nicole Kidman?  That's not really a fair question is it?  But what can I say?  It does seem like Cruise was the heartbreaker and not Kidman.  Will people take into account the lowered public image of one of the biggest actors of our time?  Well, have you seen the commercials for Vanilla Sky?  It actually looks pretty good.  Not at all what I expected.  Tom Cruise should have another $100 million hit on his hands.

Other movies premiering in the month of December that should make at least $50 million include, the comedy spoof Not Another Teen Movie; the other big cast movie, The Royal Tenenbaums; the computer animated Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius; the Tim Allen movie Joe Somebody; the Meg Ryan/Hugh Jackman starrer Kate & Leopold; Kevin Spacey's The Shipping News; Jim Carrey's seemingly low key PG-rated The Majestic; and Russell Crowe's A Beautiful Mind.

And with a $6.4 million opening day for Behind Enemy Lines, the Owen Wilson/Gene Hackman movie should make around $70 million.

So, have a wonderful December at the theater.  There sure is a lot to look forward to.  I know the studio executives are.