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The State Of Movies (February Edition)

E. Charl Hattingh, columnist for LMI and BOFC

Although Hollywood took the expected post-holiday box office plunge, the month still garnered its share of money makers.

Lord of The Rings continued to make money but fell quickly once Hollywood dumped several movies into theaters over the last two weeks of the month. And I am a little embarrassed to say that my prediction of $400 million will fall way short. I will be the first to admit that I over-estimated the success of the books and its following.

But still, standing at about $260 million for domestic gross to date, the movie still ranks #16 on the all-time list. The movie will have to gross another $47 million to make it into the top 10 (Independence Day holds the 10th spot with $306 million). And New Line should feel good about the money they invested in the LOTR trilogy, since the first one will make more in domestic box office than it cost for all three movies to be produced ($270 million). If the two sequels make at least $200 million each domestically, you're looking at $700 million! Okay, so I haven't accounted for the costs of the ad-campaign, but then again I haven't discussed how well the movie is doing overseas.

Movies To Look Forward To

Collateral Damage
Feb. 8

John Q
Feb. 15

We Were Soldiers
March 1

Panic Room
March 8

 
 
Overseas, LOTR has made more money than it has domestically and as it's still going strong in some countries, it should do pretty good for a while to come. By the end of January, the overseas intake is close to $370 million, bringing the worldwide take for LOTR to $630 million, for 11th place on the all time list. But it could possibly make it to #5 on the worldwide list, right behind Harry Potter. It needs to make about $190 million to overtake #5 Independence Day ($813 million worldwide).

Speaking of Harry Potter, the movie might not be in the top 10 in the America any more but it is still doing well overseas. It currently ranks #8 in domestic box office ($311 million) and fourth in worldwide grosses (over $875 million). Its foreign gross is second only to Titanic. Not often that you see two huge movies so close together in the theaters (but it could possibly happen with Spiderman and Attack of the Clones in early summer...and then again in December with Harry Potter 2 and LOTR 2...and then there's also Austin Powers 3 and MIB 2...I just realized that this is going to be a huge year!).

For the month of January LOTR made the most money of any movie, as I predicted last month (just over $100 million). But it wasn't such a clear cut box office victory. I knew that A Beautiful Mind would do well, but the movie made about $80 million in the month, without ever being number one at the box office! The movie is riding a wave of buzz. After the movie won some Golden Globes, the box office numbers fell about half a million the following weekend (the Friday to Sunday portion of both weekends). And as the Oscar nominations draw near, A Beautiful Mind will continue to make some more money. By the end of January it's total stood at $96 million (including screenings in selected cities in December). The movie could end with a total of over $150 million with the buzz that will follow it all the way to the Oscars. It all of course depends on how long they want to keep it in theaters.

The other hit during January was Black Hawk Down; it made $64 million in 14 days. The movie has also been high on the buzz, as it has become another Oscar hopeful and the timing of the release was impeccable, with patriotism running rampant in the United States. If it happens to be nominated for Best Picture, the movie could make well over $100 million. I don't believe that it will be nominated, so I see the movie ending its theater run with about $110 million (my prediction last month was that Black Hawk Down would make between $70 - $80 million).

Snow Dogs has spent an interesting time at the theaters. It falls below radar during the week and then on the weekend it does great, especially on Saturdays. Must be a family movie. The movie stands a very good chance of making the $75 million that I predicted, especially since there is no competition until Feb. 15th.

The Royal Tenenbaums has performed pretty close to my forecast. By the end of January, its total stood at $42 million, and ranked at the bottom of the top ten. The comedy might make it to $45 million.

The verdict is still out on some of the movies that I mentioned last month. But it is painfully obvious that I must have been smoking some good stuff when I predicted that Kung Pow would make over $50 million. Believe me, I am embarrassed about that prediction. I didn't expect the movie to be bad to the point where they wouldn't even preview it for critics. I actually thought that critics would applaud the originality of how it was produced. Kung Pow will be lucky to make $15 million (with a budget of $9 million).

The Mothman Prophecies had an average opening weekend and should end its run close to the $40 million that I predicted.

The Count of Monte Cristo, opening in a very low amount of theaters, still made some very good money in its first weekend. It actually beat out Mothman for the number five spot on opening weekend, with a promising future ahead of it. The CinemaScore was high, as people of all ages seemed to enjoy it. It will be one of those word of mouth movies that will do average to good business for a few weeks, and it could make over the $50 million that I predicted. A good sign is that the movie was ranked either number two or three during on the weekdays after its opening weekend, which already shows some strong word of mouth.

After an incredible $15 million opening weekend, Orange County dropped fast. It will be lucky to make the $40 million that I predicted, as its total by the end of the month was around $36 million.
One movie that I didn't even discuss last month has become somewhat of a hit. The Mandy Moore tearjerker, A Walk to Remember made an impressive $12 million in its opening weekend, and could end up with over $50 million.

The cast for February includes Bruce Willis, Denzel Washington, Arnold Schwarzenneger, Britney Spears, Aaliyah, LL Cool J, Rebecca Rojmin-Stamos, Chris Klein, Frankie Muniz, Nicole Kidman and Peter Pan. It's going to be an interesting month, especially the weekend of the 15th.
Let's start with the big stars.

Bruce Willis returns to the big screen in the form of a war film. Bruce Willis movies are always interesting to predict. You can have an average moneymaker like Bandits or The Whole Nine Yards, or you could have a break out hit like The Sixth Sense or Armageddon. Lately Bruce Willis has had mostly average hits. In fact, he hasn't had a $100 million hit since The Sixth Sense (although he came close with the terrific Unbreakable).  Movies like The Kid, Bandits and Nine Yards still made good money at the box office but they weren't huge hits. I see his new movie, Hart's War, opening on a weekend with five other movies making better money than the last few movies. Bruce Willis is my favorite actor due to the great roles that he picks, and this one looks like another solid one. So, I'll be there to see it. The R-rating will keep the figures low and an already saturated movie market (with more to come) will keep its total under $100 million. My guess is that Hart's War will make over $60 million in its entire run.

The previews for John Q are very intriguing, and I think this will be one of those movies that will open pretty good and go on to drop very little from week to week. The storyline of a father that takes a hospital hostage to save his son is enough to get me into the theater. It will make for a very interesting thriller. And with the success of his last movie (and a possible nomination), Denzel Washington is a major draw. His last two movies have opened very well (Training Day and Remember the Titans), and continued to do well for a while. John Q doesn't quite carry the same weight as the last two but it could still make over $60 million.

Arnold Schwarzenegger returns to theaters on the heels of much discussion about his signing on for the third installment of The Terminator for $30 million. Although that film is sure to make much money, the returns of Collateral Damage will not be great. Still, the movie is sure to make more than his last movie, The 6th Day (which collected $34 million). Collateral Damage is another one of several that had to postpone its release date after Sep. 11th. The movie hits very close to home, as it deals with a terrorist that plants a bomb that ends up killing Arnold's character's wife and kid by accident, hence the title. It will be interesting to see how the public handles this movie. Is it something that people will want to see? I think that quite a few will want to see it.  Look for the film to make at least $50 million.

Rollerball, Return to Neverland, and Crossroads are all hard to predict. Rollerball could turn out to be another The Fast and the Furious. My guess is that it will probably make less than $50 million, probably around $40 million. Return To Neverland has not received any exposure at all, unless they've been showing previews on the Disney channel or something. I'm going to say that it will make over $50 million just because it's Disney and another family movie with generations of fans. Mariah Carey's Glitter was a major flop...the same for NSync's movie (which was spent so little time in the theaters I can't even remember the name of it now). On the other hand, Mandy Moore's A Walk to Remember is doing better than I expected. So, what to predict for Britney Spears' Crossroads? I'm not expecting a major hit. Plus, it is the nice Britney, not the sexy singer in the movie. I think she should have taken on a more risky role for her first movie. I would surmise that the movie will make less than $25 million.

Aaliyah's The Queen of the Damned will not make big money. The movie has had several problems since her untimely death, requiring her brother to do some of the dialogue in the film.  The movie will not make more than $30 million (although I am interested in seeing it).

A little surprise for the month could be the independent comedy, Super Troopers. The times that I've seen previews for Troopers at the theater, the audience was laughing out loud. Depending on how many theaters the movie comes out in, it could do pretty well. If it comes out on more than 2,000 theaters, it could bring in over $40 million.

As you can see, February should have a handful of average to good hits. It will be very interesting to see how the movies fight it out in a crowded month.

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