Overseas, LOTR has made more money than it has
domestically and as it's still going strong in some
countries, it should do pretty good for a while to
come. By the end of January, the overseas intake is
close to $370 million, bringing the worldwide take for
LOTR to $630 million, for 11th place on the all time
list. But it could possibly make it to #5 on the
worldwide list, right behind Harry Potter. It needs to
make about $190 million to overtake #5 Independence
Day ($813 million worldwide).
Speaking of Harry Potter, the movie might not be in
the top 10 in the America any more but it is still
doing well overseas. It currently ranks #8 in domestic
box office ($311 million) and fourth in worldwide
grosses (over $875 million). Its foreign gross is
second only to Titanic. Not often that you see two
huge movies so close together in the theaters (but it
could possibly happen with Spiderman and Attack of the
Clones in early summer...and then again in December
with Harry Potter 2 and LOTR 2...and then there's also
Austin Powers 3 and MIB 2...I just realized that this
is going to be a huge year!).
For the month of January LOTR made the most money of
any movie, as I predicted last month (just over $100
million). But it wasn't such a clear cut box office
victory. I knew that A Beautiful Mind would do well,
but the movie made about $80 million in the month,
without ever being number one at the box office! The
movie is riding a wave of buzz. After the movie won
some Golden Globes, the box office numbers fell about
half a million the following weekend (the Friday to
Sunday portion of both weekends). And as the Oscar
nominations draw near, A Beautiful Mind will continue
to make some more money. By the end of January it's
total stood at $96 million (including screenings in
selected cities in December). The movie could end with
a total of over $150 million with the buzz that will
follow it all the way to the Oscars. It all of course
depends on how long they want to keep it in theaters.
The other hit during January was Black Hawk Down; it
made $64 million in 14 days. The movie has also been
high on the buzz, as it has become another Oscar
hopeful and the timing of the release was impeccable,
with patriotism running rampant in the United
States. If it happens to be nominated for Best
Picture, the movie could make well over $100 million.
I don't believe that it will be nominated, so I see
the movie ending its theater run with about $110
million (my prediction last month was that Black Hawk
Down would make between $70 - $80 million).
Snow Dogs has spent an interesting time at the
theaters. It falls below radar during the week and
then on the weekend it does great, especially on
Saturdays. Must be a family movie. The movie stands a
very good chance of making the $75 million that I
predicted, especially since there is no competition
until Feb. 15th.
The Royal Tenenbaums has performed pretty close to my
forecast. By the end of January, its total stood at
$42 million, and ranked at the bottom of the top ten.
The comedy might make it to $45 million.
The verdict is still out on some of the movies that I
mentioned last month. But it is painfully obvious that
I must have been smoking some good stuff when I
predicted that Kung Pow would make over $50
million. Believe me, I am embarrassed about that
prediction. I didn't expect the movie to be bad to the
point where they wouldn't even preview it for
critics. I actually thought that critics would applaud
the originality of how it was produced. Kung Pow will
be lucky to make $15 million (with a budget of $9
million).
The Mothman Prophecies had an average opening weekend
and should end its run close to the $40 million that I
predicted.
The Count of Monte Cristo, opening in a very low
amount of theaters, still made some very good money in
its first weekend. It actually beat out Mothman for
the number five spot on opening weekend, with a
promising future ahead of it. The CinemaScore was
high, as people of all ages seemed to enjoy it. It
will be one of those word of mouth movies that will do
average to good business for a few weeks, and it could
make over the $50 million that I predicted. A good
sign is that the movie was ranked either number two or
three during on the weekdays after its opening
weekend, which already shows some strong word of
mouth.
After an incredible $15 million opening weekend,
Orange County dropped fast. It will be lucky to make
the $40 million that I predicted, as its total by the
end of the month was around $36 million.
One movie that I didn't even discuss last month has
become somewhat of a hit. The Mandy Moore tearjerker,
A Walk to Remember made an impressive $12 million in
its opening weekend, and could end up with over $50
million.
The cast for February includes Bruce Willis, Denzel
Washington, Arnold Schwarzenneger, Britney Spears,
Aaliyah, LL Cool J, Rebecca Rojmin-Stamos, Chris
Klein, Frankie Muniz, Nicole Kidman and Peter
Pan. It's going to be an interesting month, especially
the weekend of the 15th.
Let's start with the big stars.
Bruce Willis returns to the big screen in the form of
a war film. Bruce Willis movies are always interesting
to predict. You can have an average moneymaker like
Bandits or The Whole Nine Yards, or you could have a
break out hit like The Sixth Sense or
Armageddon. Lately Bruce Willis has had mostly average
hits. In fact, he hasn't had a $100 million hit since
The Sixth Sense (although he came close with the
terrific Unbreakable). Movies like The Kid, Bandits
and Nine Yards still made good money at the box office
but they weren't huge hits. I see his new movie,
Hart's War, opening on a weekend with five other
movies making better money than the last few movies.
Bruce Willis is my favorite actor due to the great
roles that he picks, and this one looks like another
solid one. So, I'll be there to see it. The R-rating
will keep the figures low and an already saturated
movie market (with more to come) will keep its total
under $100 million. My guess is that Hart's War will
make over $60 million in its entire run.
The previews for John Q are very intriguing, and I
think this will be one of those movies that will open
pretty good and go on to drop very little from week to
week. The storyline of a father that takes a hospital
hostage to save his son is enough to get me into the
theater. It will make for a very interesting
thriller. And with the success of his last movie (and
a possible nomination), Denzel Washington is a major
draw. His last two movies have opened very well
(Training Day and Remember the Titans), and continued
to do well for a while. John Q doesn't quite carry the
same weight as the last two but it could still make
over $60 million.
Arnold Schwarzenegger returns to theaters on the heels
of much discussion about his signing on for the third
installment of The Terminator for $30
million. Although that film is sure to make much
money, the returns of Collateral Damage will not be
great. Still, the movie is sure to make more than his
last movie, The 6th Day (which collected $34
million). Collateral Damage is another one of several
that had to postpone its release date after Sep.
11th. The movie hits very close to home, as it deals
with a terrorist that plants a bomb that ends up
killing Arnold's character's wife and kid by accident,
hence the title. It will be interesting to see how the
public handles this movie. Is it something that people
will want to see? I think that quite a few will want
to see it. Look for the film to make at least $50
million.
Rollerball, Return to Neverland, and Crossroads are
all hard to predict. Rollerball could turn out to be
another The Fast and the Furious. My guess is that it
will probably make less than $50 million, probably
around $40 million. Return To Neverland has not
received any exposure at all, unless they've been
showing previews on the Disney channel or
something. I'm going to say that it will make over $50
million just because it's Disney and another family
movie with generations of fans. Mariah Carey's Glitter
was a major flop...the same for NSync's movie (which
was spent so little time in the theaters I can't even
remember the name of it now). On the other hand, Mandy
Moore's A Walk to Remember is doing better than I
expected. So, what to predict for Britney Spears'
Crossroads? I'm not expecting a major hit. Plus, it is
the nice Britney, not the sexy singer in the
movie. I think she should have taken on a more risky
role for her first movie. I would surmise that the
movie will make less than $25 million.
Aaliyah's The Queen of the Damned will not make big
money. The movie has had several problems since her
untimely death, requiring her brother to do some of
the dialogue in the film. The movie will not make
more than $30 million (although I am interested in
seeing it).
A little surprise for the month could be the
independent comedy, Super Troopers. The times that
I've seen previews for Troopers at the theater, the
audience was laughing out loud. Depending on how many
theaters the movie comes out in, it could do pretty
well. If it comes out on more than 2,000 theaters, it
could bring in over $40 million.
As you can see, February should have a handful of
average to good hits. It will be very interesting to
see how the movies fight it out in a crowded month. |