Ali set a Christmas opening day record with $10
million, almost beating LOTR for the day. It seemed
that the movie was well on its way to $100 million.
Since then the Will Smith movie has fallen quickly.
It made a dismal $15 million over its first weekend,
and should fall even further over the next few weeks.
I predicted that the movie would make between $125 and
$150 million at the theaters. At the time I didn't
realize that the movie was almost three hours long.
You're not going to have a huge blockbuster with a
three hour, R-rated movie, no matter how famous its
subject is. The movie, currently with a gross of $35
million, will not make more than $80 million.
I originally predicted that Vanilla Sky would make
$100 million. After I saw the previews and ultimately
the movie, I changed my mind, and said that it would
end its run between $50 - $60 million. After last
weekend, the pathetic excuse for a movie stands at $66
million. It will probably go on to make close to $100
million, and I just can't figure out why. Do people
want to see for themselves how bad it is? Are people
actually listening to a review of Ebert? Or are
people going just to catch a glimpse of Penelope Cruz
topless? Whatever the reason, the word of mouth is
actually pretty good, even though the people that saw
it on opening night gave it an average score of D-.
As for my other predictions with the last State Of The
Movies, some are way below my expectations, and the
verdict is still out on some of them.
Movies that didn't make the $50 million that I
predicted was Not Another Teen Movie (about $30
million); Joe Somebody (will end with less than $25
million); The Majestic (will finish with less than $30
million).
Jimmy Neutron will make around $75 million, and Kate &
Leopold might barely make it over the $50 million
mark.
As for The Royal Tenenbaums, A Beautiful Mind, and The
Shipping News, those movies are not in wide release as
of yet. I no longer believe that Shipping News will
make over $50 million, as it seems that the movie is
extremely boring, and the turnout should challenge
that of The Majestic as most disappointing.
A Beautiful Mind on the other hand should do some
incredible business, as both critics and word of mouth
is driving this movie. It should make at least $75
million.
As for The Royal Tenenbaums, the movie could still
make over $50 million, though I don't know if the
majority of filmgoers will like it as much as I did.
Looking ahead to the month of January, it is going to
be one huge let down after two incredible months.
Sure, LOTR is still going to make a lot of money (but
whether my prediction in the "Top 10 Reasons LOTR Will
Make $400 million" column will come true, remains to
be seen). Of movies carrying over from December,
Harry Potter should make it over the $300 million
mark.
There are only two movies premiering in January that
might make the century mark.
The first one is the war drama based on actual events,
Black Hawk Down, which stars a cast of young actors,
including Ewan McGregor, Josh Hartnett, Eric Bana (Mr.
The Hulk himself) and veteran actor, Tom Sizemore.
Directed by Ridley Scott, this movie is sure to get
the adrenaline and movie ticket dispensers pumping.
But the R-rating and violence that sounds like it will
give Saving Private Ryan a run for its money, will
make it tough to reach $100 million. The movie should
end its run somewhere around $70 - $80 million.
The other $100 million hopeful is the Disney family
movie Snow Dogs, starring Cuba Gooding Jr. As we all
know, family movies have had a wonderful time over the
past two months, with Monsters Inc. making $230
million, and Harry Potter making close to $300
million. Even Jimmy Neutron rebounded from a lower
than expected opening of $15 million, to make another
$15 million in its second weekend. A drop of zero
percent is pretty damn good! The three top grossing
movies of 2001 were family movies (Harry Potter, Shrek
and Monsters Inc.). Three other family movies made
over $100 million in 2001 (Doctor Dolittle 2, Spy Kids
and The Princess Diaries). So, I'd say that the
chances of making at least $75 million is pretty good
for Snow Dogs.
As for movies that should make at least $50 million,
there is a handful.
The one movie that I am looking forward to the most is
The Count Of Monte Cristo, starring Guy Pearce
(Memento), Jim Caviezel (Angel Eyes) and Richard
Harris (Harry Potter). With a friendly PG-13 rating,
this movie could bring in teenagers, but should appeal
more to the older crowd.
Another movie that should be fun to watch is Kung Pow:
Enter The Fist. Writer, director and star, Steve
Oedekerk, brings to the big screen one of the most
original movie ideas in a long while. Oedekerk
(director of The Nutty Professor), took footage of an
old martial arts movie, and using digital editing, put
himself in the movie, as its hero. There should be
quite a few hilarious moments in this movie, and even
critics might like it due to its originality.
Other movies that should make at least $40 million, is
the Jack Black (Shallow Hal) comedy Orange County, and
the supposedly based on true events Richard Gere
thriller, The Mothman Prophecies.
The why-didn't-they-just-put-it-out-on-video award
goes to The Imposter, the Gary Sinise sci-fi thriller
that has been sitting on the shelf so long, you're
probably going to see particles of dust in the
picture.
Still, the movie that will probably make the most
money this month will be LOTR, and it should continue
to be number one for at least two more weeks.
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