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The State Of Movies (December Edition)

E. Charl Hattingh, columnist for LMI and BOFC

Continuing the furious pace set by November movies, Hollywood continued with a monumental month in December.

The month was led by Lord Of The Rings and Ocean's Eleven, while Harry Potter (it's total stands at $286 million domestically and $372 million overseas as of Sunday, December 30) contributed as well.  Harry Potter's $658 million worldwide gross currently ranks 10th on the all time list.

Even with an almost three hour running time and limited screenings, Lord Of The Rings opened huge all over the world.  In it's first week LOTR made $95 million domestically.  It passed the $100 million mark the following day.  By Sunday the 30th of December, in its 12th day in theaters, LOTR had made $154 million domestically, making over $11 million a day, except for two days.  Overseas, LOTR has made over $100 million.  If LOTR continues at this pace, its worldwide take will be twice that of the budget for the entire trilogy ($270 million)...With two more movies to be released!  Talk about your great investments.  We're looking at a trilogy that should altogether make at least $1.5 billion worldwide by the time the third movie leaves theaters.  All I can say is that Peter Jackson should be well rewarded by New Line for turning a risky endeavor into what will become one of the biggest series in the history of the cinema.

Ocean's Eleven was a born blockbuster ever since the great cast signed on.  In its fourth weekend, Ocean's was still number two at the box office, making over $17 million, proof that the movie has received some great word of mouth.  When the movie opened with $38 million, it was widely thought that it would finish with about $125 million.  In last month's State Of The Movies column I predicted that Ocean's will make over $150 million.  It is well on it's way, as it has made $128 million in 24 days.  The movie should end its run somewhere in the area of $175 million.

Movies To Look Forward To

The Count of Monte Cristo
Jan. 25

The Mothman Prophecies
Jan. 25

Collateral Damage
Feb. 8

Rollerball
Feb. 8

 
 

Ali set a Christmas opening day record with $10 million, almost beating LOTR for the day.  It seemed that the movie was well on its way to $100 million.  Since then the Will Smith movie has fallen quickly.  It made a dismal $15 million over its first weekend, and should fall even further over the next few weeks.  I predicted that the movie would make between $125 and $150 million at the theaters.  At the time I didn't realize that the movie was almost three hours long.  You're not going to have a huge blockbuster with a three hour, R-rated movie, no matter how famous its subject is.  The movie, currently with a gross of $35 million, will not make more than $80 million.

I originally predicted that Vanilla Sky would make $100 million.  After I saw the previews and ultimately the movie, I changed my mind, and said that it would end its run between $50 - $60 million.  After last weekend, the pathetic excuse for a movie stands at $66 million.  It will probably go on to make close to $100 million, and I just can't figure out why.  Do people want to see for themselves how bad it is?  Are people actually listening to a review of Ebert?  Or are people going just to catch a glimpse of Penelope Cruz topless?  Whatever the reason, the word of mouth is actually pretty good, even though the people that saw it on opening night gave it an average score of D-.
As for my other predictions with the last State Of The Movies, some are way below my expectations, and the verdict is still out on some of them.

Movies that didn't make the $50 million that I predicted was Not Another Teen Movie (about $30 million); Joe Somebody (will end with less than $25 million); The Majestic (will finish with less than $30 million).

Jimmy Neutron will make around $75 million, and Kate & Leopold might barely make it over the $50 million mark.

As for The Royal Tenenbaums, A Beautiful Mind, and The Shipping News, those movies are not in wide release as of yet.  I no longer believe that Shipping News will make over $50 million, as it seems that the movie is extremely boring, and the turnout should challenge that of The Majestic as most disappointing.

A Beautiful Mind on the other hand should do some incredible business, as both critics and word of mouth is driving this movie.  It should make at least $75 million.

As for The Royal Tenenbaums, the movie could still make over $50 million, though I don't know if the majority of filmgoers will like it as much as I did.
Looking ahead to the month of January, it is going to be one huge let down after two incredible months.  Sure, LOTR is still going to make a lot of money (but whether my prediction in the "Top 10 Reasons LOTR Will Make $400 million" column will come true, remains to be seen).  Of movies carrying over from December, Harry Potter should make it over the $300 million mark.

There are only two movies premiering in January that might make the century mark.

The first one is the war drama based on actual events, Black Hawk Down, which stars a cast of young actors, including Ewan McGregor, Josh Hartnett, Eric Bana (Mr. The Hulk himself) and veteran actor, Tom Sizemore.

Directed by Ridley Scott, this movie is sure to get the adrenaline and movie ticket dispensers pumping.  But the R-rating and violence that sounds like it will give Saving Private Ryan a run for its money, will make it tough to reach $100 million.  The movie should end its run somewhere around $70 - $80 million.

The other $100 million hopeful is the Disney family movie Snow Dogs, starring Cuba Gooding Jr.  As we all know, family movies have had a wonderful time over the past two months, with Monsters Inc. making $230 million, and Harry Potter making close to $300 million.  Even Jimmy Neutron rebounded from a lower than expected opening of $15 million, to make another $15 million in its second weekend.  A drop of zero percent is pretty damn good!  The three top grossing movies of 2001 were family movies (Harry Potter, Shrek and Monsters Inc.).  Three other family movies made over $100 million in 2001 (Doctor Dolittle 2, Spy Kids and The Princess Diaries).  So, I'd say that the chances of making at least $75 million is pretty good for Snow Dogs.

As for movies that should make at least $50 million, there is a handful.
The one movie that I am looking forward to the most is The Count Of Monte Cristo, starring Guy Pearce (Memento), Jim Caviezel (Angel Eyes) and Richard Harris (Harry Potter).  With a friendly PG-13 rating, this movie could bring in teenagers, but should appeal more to the older crowd.

Another movie that should be fun to watch is Kung Pow: Enter The Fist.  Writer, director and star, Steve Oedekerk, brings to the big screen one of the most original movie ideas in a long while.  Oedekerk (director of The Nutty Professor), took footage of an old martial arts movie, and using digital editing, put himself in the movie, as its hero.  There should be quite a few hilarious moments in this movie, and even critics might like it due to its originality.

Other movies that should make at least $40 million, is the Jack Black (Shallow Hal) comedy Orange County, and the supposedly based on true events Richard Gere thriller, The Mothman Prophecies.

The why-didn't-they-just-put-it-out-on-video award goes to The Imposter, the Gary Sinise sci-fi thriller that has been sitting on the shelf so long, you're probably going to see particles of dust in the picture.

Still, the movie that will probably make the most money this month will be LOTR, and it should continue to be number one for at least two more weeks.

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