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Lee's Movie Info > The State of Movies: July Edition    Updated: 07/28/02  

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The State of Movies: July Edition

$400.1 mil
& counting

by E. Charl Hattingh

June

The two biggest movies of the summer took a back-seat to other movies during the month of June. Yet Spider-Man and Attack of the Clones are still the movies to beat, as June was kind of a letdown. Some movies fared as I had expected while some did better and some did worse. But first off, let me discuss the leftovers from May.

Spider-Man continued to make good money into its second month in release. In June the movie made about another $50 million domestically, bringing its total to $395.9 million. The total puts it more than $100 million ahead of the movie that everyone thought would be number one for the summer, AOTC. Spider-Man also managed to break into the top five of all time top grossing movies in North America. While the movie will surely cross the $400 million mark, it won't surpass The Phantom Menace at #4 with $431 million. But no matter what, the feat is unbelievable.

Consider that the top grossing comic book movie before Spider-Man was Batman with $251 million. Not only did it surpass that movie, but it will end up with about $150 million more! While I'm on the subject of $150 million, could it be possible that Spider-Man 2 will be the first movie to make $150 million on its opening weekend? Okay, I'm getting a little ahead of myself. Spider-Man is also doing great business overseas. The movie has made almost $300 million in overseas markets and still has to open in a few countries. That brings its worldwide total to close to $700 million, good enough for #10 on the all time list.

Attack of the Clones is kicking and clawing its way just to make $300 million in domestic box office, far below any predictions made before summer. The movie stands a chance of being third or fourth on the top grossing movies for the year, depending on how movies like MIB2, Lord of the Rings 2 and Harry Potter 2 do. I doubt anyone thought that the movie would not be number one for the year before the summer movie season kicked off. At the end of June the movie had made $286 million, putting it just ahead of Home Alone for #15 on the all time domestic list. It's saving salvation is its grosses overseas, as the movie has already made over $200 million with many big markets left to premier in. Its worldwide total is over $500 million, good enough for #23 on the all time list.

Ben Affleck's The Sum Of All Fears premiered on the last day of May, making $10 million opening night. It's opening weekend of $31 million set the course for a total of $90 million, but the movie managed some good word of mouth and its total at the end of June was $105 million. Fears will most likely end up equaling the over $120 million marks set by two Jack Ryan predecessors, The Hunt For Red October and Clear and Present Danger.

The biggest movie premiering in the month of June was the live-action adaptation, Scooby-Doo. The movie had a stellar opening weekend, grossing $54 million. But as expected, Scooby suffered a 50%+ drop in its sophomore weekend. By the end of June, the family film had raked in $124 million. The movie was a hit and there is of course already talks of a sequel. My pre-summer prediction of $150 million should be close, as Scooby-Doo will make around $160 million before leaving theaters.

The biggest disappointment of the month for me was the paltry $35.6 million opening for Minority Report. The movie seemed poised to hit it very big, considering the talent in front of the camera (Tom Cruise) and behind (Steven Spielberg). Of course, $35 million ain't bad, but many (including me) thought that the movie would open north of $50 million as it was one of my choices for movies grossing over $200 million this summer. MR dropped less than 40% in its second weekend, but the chances of it making the $200 million mark are slim.

The whole concept of Minority Report is great and it received excellent reviews. I enjoyed the movie, but Spielberg made the same mistake he made with last summer's A.I., as it was longer than it should have been, story wise (it could have done without the last half hour). If it had ended with the shocking plot twist and not added the other silly plot twists at the end that you could see from a mile away, the movie would have been close to perfect. As it is, the movie is still very good; much better than both A.I. and Vanilla Sky.

By the end of June, Minority Report had grossed $73 million in ten days, trailing the gross of surprise hit, Lilo & Stitch, that premiered the same weekend. Minority Report will end its domestic run with about $150 million.

Disney returned big time with the non-computer animated Lilo & Stitch. The movie surprisingly gave Minority Report a run for its money when the two movies premiered on the same weekend. After the numbers came out for the Friday that the two movies premiered, it seemed a sure thing that L&S would win the weekend, as it made almost a million more on the Friday. And considering that family films usually do much better on Saturdays, it seemed that L&S would be the #1 film at the end of the weekend. Unfortunately for Disney, the film remained about even on its second day in theaters while Minority Report jumped 14%. At the end of the frame, L&S fell about $400,000 short of being the top movie.

But by the end of the first ten days in release for both Minority and L&S, the animated movie had moved past the sci-fi film. At the end of the month, L&S had grossed about $77 million, $4 million ahead of MR. In the long run, L&S should do better than Minority Report. Look for Lilo & Stitch to make between $150 and $175 million.

The other surprise hit for the month of June was the Matt Damon spy thriller, The Bourne Identity. Left out of the spotlight due to Scooby-Doo opening on the same weekend, the movie made a very impressive $27 million. While it fell a pretty big 44% in its sophomore weekend, it dropped only 26% in its third frame. By the end of the third weekend (and month), Bourne had gathered $73 million and should reach the $100 million mark. There has been some joking around about Damon's movie facing off against friend Ben Affleck's The Sum of All Fears (as you know, the two made it big in the business together when they wrote and starred in Good Will Hunting). Turns out that Affleck's movie will probably do a little better, but both will have $100 million hits. That is especially good news for Matt Damon who has had a few flops over the last few years (not counting his supporting role in Ocean's Eleven).

Another film that seems to be on pace to break the $100 million barrier is the new Adam Sandler film, Mr. Deeds. The film had an above expected opening of $37 million, even beating the highly anticipated Minority Report's opening weekend. It seems Sandler's fans have forgiven him for the little mishap that was Little Nicky, as Deeds almost made the same amount of money in its first weekend that Little Nicky did in its entire theater run. Although Mr. Deeds has only been in theaters for one weekend in June, it seems clear that it will continue to do well, especially with the long Fourth of July weekend as its sophomore session. Plus, word of mouth on the film should be good, as people under 21 love the movie. It's hard to say if Deeds will do similar business as Sandler's biggest movies (Big Daddy and The Waterboy both made over $150 million), but the movie is a big hit and puts Sandler back near the top as one of the most loved comics of the silver screen.  Mr. Deeds should make around $130 million.

It seems that the counter programming of The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood worked to a certain extent. The movie enjoyed an opening of $16 million, beating out the other movie opening that weekend, the actioner, Bad Company. So, yes, the summer counter programming worked that first weekend, but Ya-Ya has moved along slowly and its total at the end of June stood at $55 million. The movie will likely end with around $70 million  A small hit, and it beat Bad Company by a huge margin.

Two movies that cost a lot to make flopped big time at the theaters during June. Windtalkers cost more than $100 million to make and in its third weekend in theaters (which was also the end of June), the movie was ranked tenth for the weekend and had a total gross of $33 million. By the time it leaves theaters, the John Woo film will have lost around $60 or $70 million and that's not even counting advertising costs. It has to be a devastating blow to director Woo, who has directed blockbusters like Face//Off and Mission: Impossible 2. For Nicolas Cage it is just another in a string of disappointments.

But Woo and Cage have company in their misery. Producer Jerry Bruckheimer and actors Anthony Hopkins and Chris Rock suffered similar humiliation with their $70 million bomb, Bad Company. The movie opened below what most Bruckheimer movies make ($11 million) and then just dropped out of sight. Company ended up grossing less than $30 million and both Windtalkers and Bad Company are victims of this busy summer. I thought that The Bourne Identity would be the movie that suffered the most with the schedule of big blockbuster movies, but it clearly stands far above both movies.

$100 million movies from June
:

Scooby-Doo: End of June - $124 million; Should finish with about $160 million
Lilo & Stitch: $77 million; $150-$175 million
Minority Report: $73 million; $150 million
Mr. Deeds: $37 million; $130 million
The Bourne Identity: $73 million; $100 million

Continued: July >>