In my pre-summer column I predicted that
MIB2 would make $225 million. While
it could turn out to be true, the movie
might make closer to the $250 million
mark. I doubt that it will overtake the
current number two movie for the summer, AOTC.
The Fourth of July numbers this year
might be a little lower than before,
considering that people seem to be out
and celebrating 4th of July in bigger
numbers. But, the future looks bright for
Men in Black II, as it is actually on pace to make
around $270 million or so in its entire
theater run. But it all depends on word
of mouth and just how many people
decided to go see it the first night.
The movie is not as well reviewed as the
first one and that might affect
attendance. I think I will stick with
my prediction of $225 million.
The other blockbuster-to-be, Austin
Powers in Goldmember, will premier
on the last weekend of July and should
have a huge opening. The question
is, how will it do after that opening
weekend?
The Spy Who Shagged Me had a stunning
opening of over $50 million a few years
back. While that comedy was not as good
as the original (that made only about
$50 million in its entire theater run),
Austin Powers still went on to make $200
million. Usually the third movie in a
trilogy is not as good as its
predecessors, and I think this time
around it will affect the box office.
Goldmember's second weekend drop might be one of
the biggest ever. My pre-summer
prediction for Goldmember was $160
million and I think that figure is a
little low now that it's getting closer
to the movie premiering. I believe the
movie will open big enough to make its
final total a little higher than $160
million, at
$185 million.
Tom Hanks is back and badder than
ever. Okay, so he plays a "good" bad
guy in the mob drama, The Road to
Perdition. His track record is
impeccable over the last decade or so. Back in 1988 and 1989 he had two hit
movies that seemed to send him on his
way to stardom (Big and Turner &
Hooch). Then in 1990 his career hit a
very big snag with The Bonfire of the
Vanities. The movie (based on a best
seller) bombed at the box office (to say
the least), making a pathetic $15
million. How do you bounce back from
something like that? Well, you win two
Best Actor Oscars and star in one $100
million hit after another.
Since Bonfire, Tom
Hanks has been in twelve movies. One of
them made over $300 million (Forrest
Gump), three of them grossed over $200
million (Cast Away, Toy Story 2 and
Saving Private Ryan), two of them made
over $150 million (Toy Story and Apollo
13), and another four turned in over $100
million (The Green Mile, You've Got
Mail, Sleepless on Seattle and A League
of their Own). The only two of the
twelve that didn't make over $100
million was Philadelphia (for which
Hanks won his first Oscar) and That
Thing You Do (which he directed and
played just a small part in).
So tell me now that The Road to
Perdition will not be a hit. Never mind
the movie just being another $100
million summer hit, look for it to be an
Oscar contender, as early word from
critics has them praising the movie with some
comparisons to The Godfather (although
no one should compare any movie to the
greatest movie of all time). On Rottentomatoes.com there are already
five reviews, all of them recommending
the movie. While I can't figure out the
grades that two of the reviewers gave,
one of the others gives it a 9 out of 10
rating while another gives it a 4 out
of 4, and the other an A+. And all the
time I am getting more and more excited
about this movie. Perdition, along
with Signs, is what I am looking forward
to the most the rest of this summer.
And to think that Road to Perdition has
been adapted from a "serialized graphic
novel" of all things!
And to make it all the better, it is
directed by Oscar winner Sam Mendes
(American Beauty) and co-stars Oscar
winner Paul Newman, Oscar nominated Jude
Law and the underrated Jennifer Jason
Leigh. The movie is rated R, so that will count
against it for box office returns. I
will stick with my pre-summer prediction
of $135 million.
Stuart Little 2 has little
breathing room before the next family
movie opens two weeks later (Spy Kids
2). But it should do fine no matter
what. The original was a surprise hit,
as going up against family movie, Toy Story
2 (which was in its 5th weekend), Stuart
Little made only $15 million in its
first weekend; hardly anything to brag
about. For its first five weeks in
theaters, SL never made more than
$20 million over a weekend, but yet
never less than $10 million, on its way
to making around $137 million. Making
almost ten times your opening weekend is
almost unheard of these days.
For some reason I didn't include this
movie in my pre-summer column. I don't
know why, just a slight oversight, but
it's obvious that Stuart Little 2 will
rake in big bucks again this time
around. It's a fun and light family
film that should go on to gross around
$130 million.
One person you cannot overlook though,
is Harrison Ford. He is the only star
whose movies have grossed a combined $3
billion. And while he opted not to
return as Jack Ryan in this summer's
hit, The Sum of All Fears, Ford is taking
on another political thriller, K-19:
The Widowmaker. The movie centers
on a true story of a Russian nuclear
submarine that suffers a malfunction.
While I don't care much for submarine
movies (how many more times will a sub
go deeper than it's supposed to and not
implode? And how many different things
can you do with a crew on a submarine
that is chased by ships?), the movie
should do pretty good. Will it be a
$100 million hit? No, but it should
come close, with about $85 million.
One movie that might surprise this month
is the sci-fi action movie, Reign of
Fire. I think the previews look
pretty cool for this obvious
tongue-in-cheek dragon slayer film
starring Matthew McConaughey and
Christian Bale. And with a friendly
PG-13 rating, kids of all ages can
venture out to see it. The only problem
is that it will suffer from competition
against MIB2. While it most likely will
not make the $100 million mark, I think
Reign of Fire could make north of $60
million.
Other movies in the month of July that
will all make under $50 million include
Like Mike (about $45 million),
The Crocodile Hunter ($40 million),
Eight Legged Freaks ($35
million), Halloween; Powerpuff
Girls and The Country Bears.
$100 million movies so far this
summer:
1. Spider-Man - $395 million (should
finish with $400 million)
2. Attack of the Clones - $286 million
($295 million)
3. Scooby-Doo - $124 million ($160
million)
4. The Sum of All Fears - $105 million
($120 million)
On pace for $100 million:
1. Lilo & Stitch - $77 million
($150-$175 million)
2. Minority Report - $73 million ($150
million)
3. Mr. Deeds - $37 million ($130
million)
4. The Bourne Identity - $73 million
($100 million)
Average Hits ($50 million+):
1. Spirit: Stallion Of The Cimarron -
$70 million
2. Insomnia - $63 million ($65 million)
3. Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya
Sisterhood - $55 million ($70 million)
4. Unfaithful - $51 million
Small Disappointments (under $50
million):
1. About A Boy - $40 million
2. Undercover Brother - $40 million
3. Enough - $40 million
Major Disappointments (low box
office and/or lost a lot of money):
1. Windtalkers - $35 million
2. Bad Company - $28 million
3. The New Guy - $28 million