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Lee's Movie Info > The State of Movies: July Edition    Updated: 07/28/02  

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The State of Movies: July Edition

Men in Black II

by E. Charl Hattingh

July

Will MIB2 join Spider-Man and AOTC in the summer of 2002 $200+ million club? I have to apologize, I was on vacation and I'm writing this column a little late. I already know that MIB2 had a huge opening day of $19 million on Wednesday, July the 3rd. In my weekend outlook I was looking for MIB2 to make about $65 million over the three day weekend and a total of $110 million for the five day total. As Lee mentioned, it seems that the movie will perform lower than some of us had expected and make around $90 - $100 million for the five day holiday. Is that bad? Duh, of course not! If the movie does make around $60 million for the weekend and $90 million for its first five days, it is well on its way to the $200 million mark.

In my pre-summer column I predicted that MIB2 would make $225 million. While it could turn out to be true, the movie might make closer to the $250 million mark. I doubt that it will overtake the current number two movie for the summer, AOTC. The Fourth of July numbers this year might be a little lower than before, considering that people seem to be out and celebrating 4th of July in bigger numbers. But, the future looks bright for Men in Black II, as it is actually on pace to make around $270 million or so in its entire theater run. But it all depends on word of mouth and just how many people decided to go see it the first night. The movie is not as well reviewed as the first one and that might affect attendance. I think I will stick with my prediction of $225 million.

The other blockbuster-to-be, Austin Powers in Goldmember, will premier on the last weekend of July and should have a huge opening. The question is, how will it do after that opening weekend? The Spy Who Shagged Me had a stunning opening of over $50 million a few years back. While that comedy was not as good as the original (that made only about $50 million in its entire theater run), Austin Powers still went on to make $200 million. Usually the third movie in a trilogy is not as good as its predecessors, and I think this time around it will affect the box office. Goldmember's second weekend drop might be one of the biggest ever. My pre-summer prediction for Goldmember was $160 million and I think that figure is a little low now that it's getting closer to the movie premiering. I believe the movie will open big enough to make its final total a little higher than $160 million, at $185 million.

Tom Hanks is back and badder than ever. Okay, so he plays a "good" bad guy in the mob drama, The Road to Perdition. His track record is impeccable over the last decade or so. Back in 1988 and 1989 he had two hit movies that seemed to send him on his way to stardom (Big and Turner & Hooch). Then in 1990 his career hit a very big snag with The Bonfire of the Vanities. The movie (based on a best seller) bombed at the box office (to say the least), making a pathetic $15 million. How do you bounce back from something like that? Well, you win two Best Actor Oscars and star in one $100 million hit after another.

Since Bonfire, Tom Hanks has been in twelve movies. One of them made over $300 million (Forrest Gump), three of them grossed over $200 million (Cast Away, Toy Story 2 and Saving Private Ryan), two of them made over $150 million (Toy Story and Apollo 13), and another four turned in over $100 million (The Green Mile, You've Got Mail, Sleepless on Seattle and A League of their Own). The only two of the twelve that didn't make over $100 million was Philadelphia (for which Hanks won his first Oscar) and That Thing You Do (which he directed and played just a small part in).

So tell me now that The Road to Perdition will not be a hit. Never mind the movie just being another $100 million summer hit, look for it to be an Oscar contender, as early word from critics has them praising the movie with some comparisons to The Godfather (although no one should compare any movie to the greatest movie of all time). On Rottentomatoes.com there are already five reviews, all of them recommending the movie.  While I can't figure out the grades that two of the reviewers gave, one of the others gives it a 9 out of 10 rating while another gives it a 4 out of 4, and the other an A+. And all the time I am getting more and more excited about this movie.  Perdition, along with Signs, is what I am looking forward to the most the rest of this summer. And to think that Road to Perdition has been adapted from a "serialized graphic novel" of all things!

And to make it all the better, it is directed by Oscar winner Sam Mendes (American Beauty) and co-stars Oscar winner Paul Newman, Oscar nominated Jude Law and the underrated Jennifer Jason Leigh. The movie is rated R, so that will count against it for box office returns. I will stick with my pre-summer prediction of $135 million.

Stuart Little 2 has little breathing room before the next family movie opens two weeks later (Spy Kids 2). But it should do fine no matter what. The original was a surprise hit, as going up against family movie, Toy Story 2 (which was in its 5th weekend), Stuart Little made only $15 million in its first weekend; hardly anything to brag about. For its first five weeks in theaters, SL never made more than $20 million over a weekend, but yet never less than $10 million, on its way to making around $137 million. Making almost ten times your opening weekend is almost unheard of these days. For some reason I didn't include this movie in my pre-summer column. I don't know why, just a slight oversight, but it's obvious that Stuart Little 2 will rake in big bucks again this time around.  It's a fun and light family film that should go on to gross around $130 million.

One person you cannot overlook though, is Harrison Ford. He is the only star whose movies have grossed a combined $3 billion. And while he opted not to return as Jack Ryan in this summer's hit, The Sum of All Fears, Ford is taking on another political thriller, K-19: The Widowmaker. The movie centers on a true story of a Russian nuclear submarine that suffers a malfunction. While I don't care much for submarine movies (how many more times will a sub go deeper than it's supposed to and not implode? And how many different things can you do with a crew on a submarine that is chased by ships?), the movie should do pretty good. Will it be a $100 million hit? No, but it should come close, with about $85 million.

One movie that might surprise this month is the sci-fi action movie, Reign of Fire. I think the previews look pretty cool for this obvious tongue-in-cheek dragon slayer film starring Matthew McConaughey and Christian Bale. And with a friendly PG-13 rating, kids of all ages can venture out to see it. The only problem is that it will suffer from competition against MIB2. While it most likely will not make the $100 million mark, I think Reign of Fire could make north of $60 million.
Other movies in the month of July that will all make under $50 million include Like Mike (about $45 million), The Crocodile Hunter ($40 million), Eight Legged Freaks ($35 million), Halloween; Powerpuff Girls and The Country Bears.

$100 million movies so far this summer:
1.  Spider-Man - $395 million (should finish with $400 million)
2.  Attack of the Clones - $286 million ($295 million)
3.  Scooby-Doo - $124 million ($160 million)
4.  The Sum of All Fears - $105 million ($120 million)

On pace for $100 million:
1.  Lilo & Stitch - $77 million ($150-$175 million)
2.  Minority Report - $73 million ($150 million)
3.  Mr. Deeds - $37 million ($130 million)
4.  The Bourne Identity - $73 million ($100 million)

Average Hits ($50 million+):
1.  Spirit: Stallion Of The Cimarron - $70 million
2.  Insomnia - $63 million ($65 million)
3.  Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood - $55 million ($70 million)
4.  Unfaithful - $51 million

Small Disappointments (under $50 million):
1.  About A Boy - $40 million
2.  Undercover Brother - $40 million
3.  Enough - $40 million

Major Disappointments (low box office and/or lost a lot of money):
1.  Windtalkers - $35 million
2.  Bad Company - $28 million
3.  The New Guy - $28 million