by E. Charl Hattingh

June

Can the month of June beat May's box office? Most likely not, but there are at least two very big hits on line for the second month of summer.

Although Minority Report most likely won't make the most money of all movies in the month of June (since it's premiering on June 21), the movie should go on to be the top grossing movie of those premiering in the month of June. Report has the distinction of being the first collaboration between one of the biggest directors of all time (Spielberg) and one of the biggest stars (Tom Cruise). Throw in a very imaginative sci-fi plot dealing with catching killers before they can kill, and you have a major blockbuster on your hands.

Last year I was very disappointed with both Spielberg's A.I. and Cruise's Vanilla Sky. My hopes are high again for this movie, so I sincerely hope that I'm not disappointed again. I'm thinking that this movie could make at least $200 million at the box office, but it all depends on how good it is.

The other guaranteed blockbuster is the live-action adaptation of the classic TV cartoon, Scooby Doo. The only problem I have is that even though the hilarious teaser trailer was great, the full two minute trailer at theaters didn't look too good. I have a lot of faith in Matthew Lillard pulling the part of Shaggy, and I think that Sarah Michelle Gellar as Daphne will be good, but I don't know about Freddie Prinze Jr. as Fred. The preview for the movie looked disjointed and a little bit of a mess. But then again, how do you preview a movie like this? Families are going to be out in full force for this one, and you could see a similar opening to that of this year's Ice Age. If the movie is as bad as the trailer looks, the movie might not suffer that much but I believe the movie won't make more than $150 million at the box office, which still is very good of course.

The other movie premiering in June that should make it to the $100 million mark is Disney's Lilo & Stitch (June 21). Although the movie looks a little different from most Disney fare (in that one of the main characters is a mischievous little alien), it should still do pretty good for itself. But with the other family movie, Scooby Doo in the market it could lose some major business. Lilo & Stitch will gross about $110 million.

There are four movies that stand a slight chance of making the $100 million mark: Windtalkers, The Bourne Identity, Mr. Deeds and Bad Company. But my guess is that none of them will even come close.

Windtalkers, starring Nicolas Cage and directed by John Woo (Face/Off and Mission Impossible II), is yet another war movie that has just saturated the market so much that it would amaze me if it even made $75 million. The movie is better fitted to premier in the non summer months (of course that didn't help Mel Gibson's We Were Soldiers to the $100 million mark, or Bruce Willis' Hart's War to the $25 million mark). Some big numbers could be expected the first weekend, but the following weekend everyone will be lining up for Minority Report. Something else that counts against it is that it is coming out on the same weekend as Matt Damon's The Bourne Identity and Scooby Doo. Windtalkers will make about $65 million.

And that is exactly the reason that The Bourne Identity won't make $100 million either. As one of the movies I am most excited about, Bourne Identity has a small chance of making even $60 million. The movie looks very interesting; a great political thriller, but it is going to be lost in the shuffle. Bourne should make about $50 million.

Mr. Deeds could actually become the biggest hit of the four. Adam Sandler's last movie was a huge disappointment for both his fans and him (Little Nicky bombed at the box office). After big hits like The Wedding Singer ($80 million), The Waterboy ($161 million) and Big Daddy ($163 million), Little Nicky made a miserable $39 million. My favorite Sandler movie by far is Wedding Singer and it looks like Mr. Deeds is a mix between that romantic love story and the humor of Big Daddy. Deeds might surprise and make $100 million, but my guess is it will make around $80 million.

Bad Company, starring Chris Rock and Anthony Hopkins, and produced by the "box office hit maker", Jerry Bruckheimer will do good initially, but it too will suffer from the direct competition of the movies coming out in the weeks after and the movie that came out the week before (The Sum of All Fears). In its first weekend it has to face of against counter-programmer, The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood. Okay, so no competition there. Couples will go to the theater together and the women will go to Ya-Ya and the men to Bad Company. Actually, I believe that a lot more people are going to see Company. But the week after it has to face off against Bourne Identity and Windtalkers. The week after that, Minority Report. So, even though Bruckheimer never seems to fail with his movies, he has to hope that people come out in droves in the first weekend to make money. Critics will obviously not like this movie (they never like Bruckheimer movies for some reason), but audiences won't really care. Bad Company will probably make around $65 million in its entire run, qualifying as a so-so hit.

As for The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood, I never liked the whole thing since I saw the first preview. Then, of course, I am a guy. But early word from critics is that it is just annoying. I think some of the people it is trying to attract will look at the reviews, but there are those women that won't care and go out and see the movie. But look for Ya-Ya to make less than $50 million at the box office.

I have no idea what to predict with the kids movie, Hey Arnold! I've never even heard of the guy until I saw a preview in the theaters. But it shouldn't matter too much, since there will be other family movies out at the same time that will keep its numbers low.