Box Office & Beyond.  Get The Numbers Here.

Search

 

advanced search   

 
 
 

 

 

The State of Movies (March Edition)

 

By E. Charl Hattingh

February

It could be the calm before the storm but February turned out to be a pretty average month for movies. The only hit for the month was Denzel Washington's John Q. Opening with $20 million for the three day weekend ($24 million for the four day holiday), the movie should go on to make more money than any other movie released in February.  In its second weekend it dropped more than I thought it would (to $12.5 million). It's current total stands at about $40 million and it should end its theater run in the area of $80 million, unless word of mouth picks up.
 

I feel bad for Bruce Willis and everyone associated with Hart's War. The movie is excellent and yet it's considered a major flop. In it's opening weekend the movie failed to make even $10 million and is on its way to grossing about $30 million; it is way below expectations. In last month's State Of Movies column I predicted that the movie would make at least $60 million. I loved the movie since it took a different approach to the usual action packed war films. Just too bad that it was a hard sell.

Arnold Schwarzenegger's Collateral Damage is another movie that is performing below my expectations. In its third weekend the movie had dropped to the bottom, placing tenth for the top grossing movies. Considering that it had such a great opening weekend, the $40 million it will end up with is pretty disappointing (I figured it would at least make the $50 million mark).
A surprise hit in it's opening weekend was the Britney Spears movie, Crossroads, which debuted in second place behind John Q and made $17 million over the four day weekend. But the movie fell the expected 50% in its sophomore weekend and it will probably end with around $40 million, $15 million more than I predicted.

The family movie, Big Fat Liar is doing well for itself as the movie has grossed over $33 million and fell the least amount out of any movie for the Feb. 22 - 24 weekend (23%). Big Fat Liar should make over $50 million.

Chris Klein should have better luck in the month of March (We Were Soldiers) than what he had in February with the flop, Rollerball. The movie opened decently but fell quickly, grossing in the area of $20 million. With a rumored $90 million budget, Rollerball will turn out to be one of the biggest losers for 2002 (my prediction was $40 million).

The family movie, Return To Never Land started off with a good opening weekend. The sequel to Peter Pan fell 24% in its second weekend and will most likely continue to make money for a while (until Ice Age freezes its box office intake). By the end of February it has earned $29 million and will likely make the $50 million that I forecasted.

Queen of the Damned had a spectacular opening, making more than I expected ($15 million).  Even with the big opening the movie still won't make much more than the $30 million that I predicted.

I thought that the movie Super Troopers could turn into a little surprise hit. But opening in less than 2,000 theaters, its chances were minimal. It opened with about $6 million and will probably end its run in the area of $15 million.

A movie that I didn't even mention last month turned in a pretty good performance in its opening weekend, as Dragonfly opened with $10 million. Unless the flick gets positive word of mouth, it will end its run in the area of $30 million.
 

March

As Lee has mentioned, March could turn into a huge month for the movie industry. I have to confess, this part of the column I am writing after the numbers have already come out for the first weekend in March, so in a way I will be cheating a little with the first two movies of the month.

But hey, we all knew that We Were Soldiers (starring Mel Gibson) would do pretty good. My prediction for the opening weekend for the movie turned out to be right on the money. In my final predictions column on Thursday (Feb. 28), I predicted that Soldiers would open with "$20 million...Nothing more, nothing less." Now that the estimates came out for the weekend, Soldiers stands at $20.2 million so I was close if the estimates hold up. The movie was already set for big things, considering that Mel Gibson was the star. His last three movies (What Women Want, The Patriot and Chicken Run) all made over $100 million (they were all released in the same year!) and in his last ten movies six of them grossed over $100 million. During that span he also won two Oscars for Braveheart (which made under $100 million). Although the movie opened with $20 million, the chance that it will make the $100 million club remains to be seen. I predict that it will end in the area of $80 - $90 million. Oh yeah, and Chris Klein finally has a hit other than the American Pie movies.

In the weekend estimates for 40 Days and 40 Nights, Josh Hartnett's sex comedy made a decent showing with $12.5 million. Slowly making a name for himself, Hartnett's future looks bright. Although his movie "O" didn't do well, his other two movies over the last year (Black Hawk Down and Pearl Harbor) have made a combined $300 million. And to have an R rated movie open so well! 40 Days... should be considered successful, even though it will only end with about $50 million.

The rest of the month is filled with possible blockbusters. This is the first month in a while where we might have at least four movies grossing over $100 million in their respective theater runs.

Premiering on March 8 is the somewhat highly anticipated The Time Machine, starring one of today's brightest stars.  ast seen in The Count of Monte Cristo and Memento, Guy Pearce is on the verge of becoming a huge star. Although I don't expect Time Machine to be as good as either of those movies, it could turn out to make twice as much as both those movies combined. Which means it could make around $150 million, but that might be stretching it a little too far.  Time Machine will probably make $90 - $120 million, depending on how many people know about it since the movie has not had the greatest ad campaign.

A movie that could actually reach the $150 million mark is Ice Age. Looking back over the last year, similar family movies (Shrek and Monster's Inc.) both grossed over $200 million, so the chances are pretty good that Ice Age will do well. The only things that count against it making it really big is that the movie didn't have the ad campaigns the other two did, and it's being released during a non-holiday frame (Shrek came out over the summer and Monsters just before the Thanksgiving & Christmas holiday season). Ice Age could gross anywhere from $125 - $175.

E.T. is not Star Wars, but maybe it can relive its golden days much as the Star Wars Special Editions did a few years ago. E.T. doesn't have the same cult following as the Star Wars saga but it could still benefit from parents who saw the original in theaters when they were young, taking their kids to see it now. The movie will probably open very big (over $30 million) but then fall quickly. It could end its run in the area of $100 million, but the problem will be that it will have direct competition with the hit from the weekend before (Ice Age).

Blade 2: Bloodhunt will benefit from a huge cult following. The original did better than expected in theaters and it grew bigger on video. Blade 2 will at the very least have a huge opening, maybe as high as $30 million. But the chances that it will make the $100 million mark are slim, yet not impossible. Whatever the movie opens with it will most likely see a huge decline in its second weekend.  It should make in the area of $80 - $100 million.

I am looking forward to the pairing of Robert DeNiro and Eddie Murphy in the cop comedy, Showtime, but early buzz is very low for the movie that sounds like a sure hit. Both actors have had hits in the comedy genre over the last few years (DeNiro with Meet The Parents and Analyze This, Eddie Murphy with Shrek, Nutty Professor 1 & 2 and Dr. Dolittle 1 & 2. All those movies made over $100 million!). The previews, while humorous, are not laugh-out-loud funny.  The movie will have a big opening but if it's as bad as I've heard, then it will fall quickly. If Showtime is bad: $70 million. If it's good: $100 million.

The other movie that stands a small chance of making it to the $100 million mark is the Jodie Foster starring, David Fincher directed (Se7en, Fight Club and The Game) thriller, The Panic Room. Foster, who hasn't had a hit since 1997's Contact, is returning to theaters for the first time since 1999. But with a talented director like Fincher (he is one of my favorites), this could turn out to be a very good film. The previews already look great, but with an R rating and a busy movie market this movie could get lost in the shuffle. My guess is that it will make between $50 and $80 million.

Three movies that could make at least $50 million, including a dark comedy, a teenage comedy and a family movie, are all opening over the last two weekends of the month. Death To Smoochy is a movie that is right down my alley. I am looking forward to this movie because of the stars (Edward Norton and Robin Williams) and what sounds like a great storyline. Norton is truly one of the greatest actors today, as he has turned in terrific performances in movies like Fight Club, Primal Fear, The Score, American History X and Rounders. And with the prequel to Silence of the Lambs (Red Dragon) coming up, he is set to hit it very big. Smoochy will not hit it that big but it is sure to be a good movie. The problem is that the public might not embrace an R rated dark comedy about a man (Williams) trying to kill a "Barney" type kids show character (Norton). The movie might make $50 million.

The preview for Sorority Boys looks funny and it might turn into another American Pie like hit. My guess is that it will do average and make $40 - $50 million.

I know that Lee has made some fun of the family movie Clockstoppers, but I think the movie might actually do pretty good (no, not anywhere close to what Spider-Man will make). There are some genuinely interesting special effects that I've seen in the previews and I think youngsters will enjoy the movie. Look for it to make at least $50 million.

Undisputed, another Wesley Snipes movie coming out this month (co-starring Ving Rhames), looks like a great movie. The story about a man (Snipes) in prison that has (in jail) beaten everybody at boxing faces off against the reigning heavyweight champ (Rhames) that is sent to prison on charges of rape. Undisputed will probably make less than $40 million but I will be there to see it.

Other movies that will earn less than $40 million are the Ice Cube action comedy. All About The Benjamins and the Milla Jovovich actioner, Resident Evil. It seems that we are smack dab in the middle of summer with some of the movies premiering this month, but it is just the beginning since there are big movies opening seemingly every month for the rest of the year.  Let's just say that summer is starting a little earlier this year.

 

 

 

© 1998 - 2001 Lee's Movie Info.  All Rights Reserved.
Privacy Policy | Contact