I feel bad for Bruce
Willis and everyone associated with
Hart's War. The movie is excellent and
yet it's considered a major flop. In
it's opening weekend the movie failed
to make even $10 million and is on its
way to grossing about $30 million; it
is way below expectations. In last
month's State Of Movies column I
predicted that the movie would make at
least $60 million. I loved the movie
since it took a different approach to
the usual action packed war films.
Just too bad that it was a hard sell.
Arnold
Schwarzenegger's Collateral Damage is
another movie that is performing below
my expectations. In its third weekend
the movie had dropped to the bottom,
placing tenth for the top grossing
movies. Considering that it had such a
great opening weekend, the $40 million
it will end up with is pretty
disappointing (I figured it would at
least make the $50 million mark).
A surprise hit in it's opening weekend
was the Britney Spears movie,
Crossroads, which debuted in second
place behind John Q and made $17
million over the four day weekend. But
the movie fell the expected 50% in its
sophomore weekend and it will probably
end with around $40 million, $15
million more than I predicted.
The family movie, Big
Fat Liar is doing well for itself as
the movie has grossed over $33 million
and fell the least amount out of any
movie for the Feb. 22 - 24 weekend
(23%). Big Fat Liar should make over
$50 million.
Chris Klein should
have better luck in the month of March
(We Were Soldiers) than what he had in
February with the flop, Rollerball.
The movie opened decently but fell
quickly, grossing in the area of $20
million. With a rumored $90 million
budget, Rollerball will turn out to be
one of the biggest losers for 2002 (my
prediction was $40 million).
The family movie,
Return To Never Land started off with
a good opening weekend. The sequel to
Peter Pan fell 24% in its second
weekend and will most likely continue
to make money for a while (until Ice
Age freezes its box office intake). By
the end of February it has earned $29
million and will likely make the $50
million that I forecasted.
Queen of the Damned
had a spectacular opening, making more
than I expected ($15 million). Even
with the big opening the movie still
won't make much more than the $30
million that I predicted.
I thought that the
movie Super Troopers could turn into a
little surprise hit. But opening in
less than 2,000 theaters, its chances
were minimal. It opened with about $6
million and will probably end its run
in the area of $15 million.
A movie that I didn't
even mention last month turned in a
pretty good performance in its opening
weekend, as Dragonfly opened with $10
million. Unless the flick gets
positive word of mouth, it will end
its run in the area of $30 million.
March
As Lee has mentioned,
March could turn into a huge month for
the movie industry. I have to confess,
this part of the column I am writing
after the numbers have already come
out for the first weekend in March, so
in a way I will be cheating a little
with the first two movies of the
month.
But hey, we all knew
that We Were Soldiers (starring Mel
Gibson) would do pretty good. My
prediction for the opening weekend for
the movie turned out to be right on
the money. In my final predictions
column on Thursday (Feb. 28), I
predicted that Soldiers would open
with "$20 million...Nothing more,
nothing less." Now that the estimates
came out for the weekend, Soldiers
stands at $20.2 million so I was close
if the estimates hold up. The movie
was already set for big things,
considering that Mel Gibson was the
star. His last three movies (What
Women Want, The Patriot and Chicken
Run) all made over $100 million (they
were all released in the same year!)
and in his last ten movies six of them
grossed over $100 million. During that
span he also won two Oscars for
Braveheart (which made under $100
million). Although the movie opened
with $20 million, the chance that it
will make the $100 million club
remains to be seen. I predict that it
will end in the area of $80 - $90
million. Oh yeah, and Chris Klein
finally has a hit other than the
American Pie movies.
In the weekend
estimates for 40 Days and 40 Nights,
Josh Hartnett's sex comedy made a
decent showing with $12.5
million. Slowly making a name for
himself, Hartnett's future looks
bright. Although his movie "O" didn't
do well, his other two movies over the
last year (Black Hawk Down and Pearl
Harbor) have made a combined $300
million. And to have an R rated movie
open so well! 40 Days... should be
considered successful, even though it
will only end with about $50 million.
The rest of the month
is filled with possible blockbusters.
This is the first month in a while
where we might have at least four
movies grossing over $100 million in
their respective theater runs.
Premiering on March 8
is the somewhat highly anticipated The
Time Machine, starring one of today's
brightest stars. ast seen in The
Count of Monte Cristo and Memento, Guy
Pearce is on the verge of becoming a
huge star. Although I don't expect
Time Machine to be as good as either
of those movies, it could turn out to
make twice as much as both those
movies combined. Which means it could
make around $150 million, but that
might be stretching it a little too
far. Time Machine will probably make
$90 - $120 million, depending on how
many people know about it since the
movie has not had the greatest ad
campaign.
A movie that could
actually reach the $150 million mark
is Ice Age. Looking back over the last
year, similar family movies (Shrek and
Monster's Inc.) both grossed over $200
million, so the chances are pretty
good that Ice Age will do well. The
only things that count against it
making it really big is that the movie
didn't have the ad campaigns the other
two did, and it's being released
during a non-holiday frame (Shrek came
out over the summer and Monsters just
before the Thanksgiving & Christmas
holiday season). Ice Age could gross
anywhere from $125 - $175.
E.T. is not Star Wars,
but maybe it can relive its golden
days much as the Star Wars Special
Editions did a few years ago. E.T.
doesn't have the same cult following
as the Star Wars saga but it could
still benefit from parents who saw the
original in theaters when they were
young, taking their kids to see it
now. The movie will probably open very
big (over $30 million) but then fall
quickly. It could end its run in the
area of $100 million, but the problem
will be that it will have direct
competition with the hit from the
weekend before (Ice Age).
Blade 2: Bloodhunt
will benefit from a huge cult
following. The original did better
than expected in theaters and it grew
bigger on video. Blade 2 will at the
very least have a huge opening, maybe
as high as $30 million. But the
chances that it will make the $100
million mark are slim, yet not
impossible. Whatever the movie opens
with it will most likely see a huge
decline in its second weekend. It
should make in the area of $80 - $100
million.
I am looking forward
to the pairing of Robert DeNiro and
Eddie Murphy in the cop comedy,
Showtime, but early buzz is very low
for the movie that sounds like a sure
hit. Both actors have had hits in the
comedy genre over the last few years (DeNiro
with Meet The Parents and Analyze
This, Eddie Murphy with Shrek, Nutty
Professor 1 & 2 and Dr. Dolittle 1 &
2. All those movies made over $100
million!). The previews, while
humorous, are not laugh-out-loud
funny. The movie will have a big
opening but if it's as bad as I've
heard, then it will fall quickly. If
Showtime is bad: $70 million. If it's
good: $100 million.
The other movie that
stands a small chance of making it to
the $100 million mark is the Jodie
Foster starring, David Fincher
directed (Se7en, Fight Club and The
Game) thriller, The Panic
Room. Foster, who hasn't had a hit
since 1997's Contact, is returning to
theaters for the first time since
1999. But with a talented director
like Fincher (he is one of my
favorites), this could turn out to be
a very good film. The previews already
look great, but with an R rating and a
busy movie market this movie could get
lost in the shuffle. My guess is that
it will make between $50 and $80
million.
Three movies that
could make at least $50 million,
including a dark comedy, a teenage
comedy and a family movie, are all
opening over the last two weekends of
the month. Death To Smoochy is a movie
that is right down my alley. I am
looking forward to this movie because
of the stars (Edward Norton and Robin
Williams) and what sounds like a great
storyline. Norton is truly one of the
greatest actors today, as he has
turned in terrific performances in
movies like Fight Club, Primal Fear,
The Score, American History X and
Rounders. And with the prequel to
Silence of the Lambs (Red Dragon)
coming up, he is set to hit it very
big. Smoochy will not hit it that big
but it is sure to be a good movie. The
problem is that the public might not
embrace an R rated dark comedy about a
man (Williams) trying to kill a
"Barney" type kids show character
(Norton). The movie might make $50
million.
The preview for
Sorority Boys looks funny and it might
turn into another American Pie like
hit. My guess is that it will do
average and make $40 - $50 million.
I know that Lee has
made some fun of the family movie
Clockstoppers, but I think the movie
might actually do pretty good (no, not
anywhere close to what Spider-Man will
make). There are some genuinely
interesting special effects that I've
seen in the previews and I think
youngsters will enjoy the movie. Look
for it to make at least $50 million.
Undisputed, another
Wesley Snipes movie coming out this
month (co-starring Ving Rhames), looks
like a great movie. The story about a
man (Snipes) in prison that has (in
jail) beaten everybody at boxing faces
off against the reigning heavyweight
champ (Rhames) that is sent to prison
on charges of rape. Undisputed will
probably make less than $40 million
but I will be there to see it.
Other movies that will
earn less than $40 million are the Ice
Cube action comedy. All About The
Benjamins and the Milla Jovovich
actioner, Resident Evil. It seems that
we are smack dab in the middle of
summer with some of the movies
premiering this month, but it is just
the beginning since there are big
movies opening seemingly every month
for the rest of the year. Let's just
say that summer is starting a little
earlier this year.