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The State of Movies: May

MAY!!!

Let's see. Mmmm? May 2002? Not much going on in theaters this month. Summer is going to be off to a very slow start this time around. Not like last year when The Mummy Returns and Pearl Harbor came out in May. Together those movies made $400 million at the domestic box office. They should really have thought about bringing out Mummy Forever, just to add a little to this lackluster month.

All kidding aside, you've probably had cobwebs in your eyes if you haven't seen the all out attack of Spider-Man on TV and pictures on cereal boxes and on candy, and who knows what else. And if you know a little about movies, then you know that all kinds of companies and directors have been interested in making this movie since the 80's. So far Spider-Man seems to have a bigger and better ad-campaign than the expected summer champ, Attack of the Clones.

Is there any justification to all this hype? Well, it is one of the most popular comic book characters of all time. And from what the previews have shown us, Columbia Pictures and Sam Raimi went all out for this film. Star Tobey Maguire has already signed on for two sequels and Raimi has signed on for at least one more. They are expecting a huge hit and rightfully so. For at least two weeks this movie will be number one and it won't be a number one like The Scorpion King, but more along the lines of last summer's Mummy Returns and Rush Hour 2. It's going to open huge and make a whole lot of money. As I stated in my Spider-Man Special column, Spider-Man is going to make $252 million, making it the biggest comic book to silver screen adaptation ever! While the hype for Spider-Man keeps growing and growing, there is another little movie hitting theaters two weeks later.

It's no surprise to some of you, but I am a huge Star Wars fan. Sure, I'm looking forward to Spider-Man, Signs (I'm so jealous of you Lee), MIB2, Insomnia, Minority Report, The Road to Perdition among others. But Star Wars!!! If I could see a new chapter of Star Wars every week and nothing else, I would (well, if M. Night Shyamalan also directed one of them). In fact, I'm sitting here in line for tickets to Attack of the Clones as I'm writing this. I've been sitting here since The Phantom Menace was just starting production. Saw that one 1,500 times. Okay, I'm not that big of a Star Wars fan. In fact, I'll just show up a few hours early on opening day to get tickets. And those of you that were nay-sayers about The Phantom Menace, this time you will be hushed. This movie looks amazing and it is going to be bigger and better than Phantom (although I still loved Phantom - complain all you want. George Lucas did a magnificent job! I think the difference was that some were expecting a miracle. I was just expecting a great movie and that's what I got!).

But, Lucas listened and Jar Jar will spend very little time on-screen. Now that we have gotten introduced to the characters in Phantom, we can go ahead with the incredible story of the transformation of Anakin to you know who (there might be some people out there that don't know yet). This movie will be embraced just like the first three Star Wars movies were and it is going to blow us away! $450 - $500 million. And please Star Wars fans, lets not let that little wizard boy hold the record for opening weekend.

Do I need to write about any other movies coming out this month? Well, actually yes. There could be a few more hits in May. No, not Deuces Wild that is opening the same day as Spider-Man for some reason. That will be lucky to make $20 million in its entire theater run. Three movies opening on the same weekend (May 24 - Memorial Day weekend) will fight it out for the top five (since Spider-Man and AOTC will still be in the top five that weekend, AOTC obviously number one in its second weekend). But Insomnia, Enough and Spirit: Stallion of the Cimmaron should all do pretty good over the first part of the summer.

Although I am not all that interested in Spirit (an animated feature from DreamWorks, the movie will most likely bring in many families. And since there is hardly any competition for its intended audience, the movie might do good for a while. But, I don't think that it will make more than $75 million.

Enough could be a big hit for its star Jennifer Lopez. It is the perfect counter programming movie in early summer. It should expect a big opening, as the storyline might bring in many audiences. And having that nice long weekend to launch with, Enough will be off to a good start. Look for it to make between $60 and 75 million in theaters.

Insomnia is blessed with three Oscar winners (actors Al Pacino, and Robin Williams and actress Hillary Swank), as well as one of the most promising directors in the movie industry (Christopher Nolan - wrote and directed last year's Memento). Robin Williams attempts another dark role, playing a serial killer who toys around with Pacino's cop, who is trying to solve the case of a murdered girl. I think the movie would've been better served released on a non-holiday, non-summer weekend, so that it can grow with word of mouth. Of course the movie has to be good for that to happen anyway. This is also one of the summer movies that I am looking forward to the most, but I think that it will most likely make $50 - $60 million.

Although The Sum of All Fears premieres in the month of May, it will make pretty much all of its money in June (considering that it opens on May 31st). But since it still does open in May, I will discuss it here. The movie could be surrounded by controversy, as it deals with a group of terrorists with a nuclear weapon on American soil. Ben Affleck steps into the shoes of Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan character (previously played by Alec Baldwin in The Hunt For Red October and Harrison Ford in Patriot Games and Clear and Present Danger). This time he is aided by veteran actor Morgan Freeman (which is always a plus!). Fears should do very well, although it will have some stiff competition from other movies that are geared towards the same audience (Bad Company, The Bourne Identity, Windtalkers and Minority Report will come out within three weeks following the premiere of Sum of All Fears). Still, I believe that Fears could make between $80 - $100 million.

Movies that could turn into unexpected hits include the comedies, The New Guy, About a Boy and Undercover Brother. The problem for The New Guy is that it is coming out in the weekend between Spider-Man and AOTC (May 10). It could open big but it will be tough. The comedy will be lucky to make $40 million.

About A Boy stars Hugh Grant. The romantic comedy has received little exposure and is opening against AOTC; not a good idea. As counter programming, About a Boy could still open with $10 million, but will probably not make it past $40 million.

Undercover Brother could see some interest in its first weekend, but it will probably drop out of theaters within three to four weeks. Look for it to make less than $30 million.

The drama Unfaithful (from the makers of Fatal Attraction) stars Richard Gere as a married man who suspects his wife of cheating on him. This is yet another movie that would probably have done better in February or March. It won't make more than $35 million.

This is going to be a huge month, thanks mostly to two movies. The combined total of Spider-Man and Attack of the Clones could reach over $400 million by the end of May! In fact, together they could make close to $500 million by the end of this month. It's not only huge, but it's beyond Hollywood's wildest dreams.