MAY!!!
Let's see. Mmmm? May
2002? Not much going on in theaters this
month. Summer is going to be off to a
very slow start this time around. Not
like last year when The Mummy Returns
and Pearl Harbor came out in
May. Together those movies made $400
million at the domestic box office. They
should really have thought about
bringing out Mummy Forever, just to add
a little to this lackluster month.
All kidding aside,
you've probably had cobwebs in your eyes
if you haven't seen the all out attack
of Spider-Man on TV and pictures on
cereal boxes and on candy, and who knows
what else. And if you know a little
about movies, then you know that all
kinds of companies and directors have
been interested in making this movie
since the 80's. So far Spider-Man seems
to have a bigger and better ad-campaign
than the expected summer champ, Attack
of the Clones.
Is there any
justification to all this hype? Well, it
is one of the most popular comic book
characters of all time. And from what
the previews have shown us, Columbia
Pictures and Sam Raimi went all out for
this film. Star Tobey Maguire has
already signed on for two sequels and
Raimi has signed on for at least one
more. They are expecting a huge hit and
rightfully so. For at least two weeks
this movie will be number one and it
won't be a number one like The Scorpion
King, but more along the lines of last
summer's Mummy Returns and Rush Hour 2.
It's going to open huge and make a whole
lot of money. As I stated in my
Spider-Man Special column, Spider-Man is
going to make $252 million, making it
the biggest comic book to silver screen
adaptation ever! While the hype for
Spider-Man keeps growing and growing,
there is another little movie hitting
theaters two weeks later.
It's no surprise to some
of you, but I am a huge Star Wars
fan. Sure, I'm looking forward to
Spider-Man, Signs (I'm so jealous of you
Lee), MIB2, Insomnia, Minority Report,
The Road to Perdition among others. But
Star Wars!!! If I could see a new
chapter of Star Wars every week and
nothing else, I would (well, if M. Night
Shyamalan also directed one of them). In
fact, I'm sitting here in line for
tickets to Attack of the Clones as I'm
writing this. I've been sitting here
since The Phantom Menace was just
starting production. Saw that one 1,500
times. Okay, I'm not that big of a Star
Wars fan. In fact, I'll just show up a
few hours early on opening day to get
tickets. And those of you that were nay-sayers
about The Phantom Menace, this time you
will be hushed. This movie looks amazing
and it is going to be bigger and better
than Phantom (although I still loved
Phantom - complain all you want. George
Lucas did a magnificent job! I think the
difference was that some were expecting
a miracle. I was just expecting a great
movie and that's what I got!).
But, Lucas listened and
Jar Jar will spend very little time
on-screen. Now that we have gotten
introduced to the characters in Phantom,
we can go ahead with the incredible
story of the transformation of Anakin to
you know who (there might be some people
out there that don't know yet). This
movie will be embraced just like the
first three Star Wars movies were and it
is going to blow us away! $450 - $500
million. And please Star Wars fans, lets
not let that little wizard boy hold the
record for opening weekend.
Do I need to write about
any other movies coming out this
month? Well, actually yes. There could
be a few more hits in May. No, not
Deuces Wild that is opening the same
day as Spider-Man for some reason. That
will be lucky to make $20 million in its
entire theater run. Three movies opening
on the same weekend (May 24 - Memorial
Day weekend) will fight it out for the
top five (since Spider-Man and AOTC will
still be in the top five that weekend,
AOTC obviously number one in its second
weekend). But Insomnia, Enough
and Spirit: Stallion of the Cimmaron
should all do pretty good over the first
part of the summer.
Although I am not all
that interested in Spirit (an animated
feature from DreamWorks, the movie will
most likely bring in many families. And
since there is hardly any competition
for its intended audience, the movie
might do good for a while. But, I don't
think that it will make more than $75
million.
Enough could be a big
hit for its star Jennifer Lopez. It is
the perfect counter programming movie in
early summer. It should expect a big
opening, as the storyline might bring in
many audiences. And having that nice
long weekend to launch with, Enough will
be off to a good start. Look for it to
make between $60 and 75 million in
theaters.
Insomnia is blessed with
three Oscar winners (actors Al Pacino,
and Robin Williams and actress Hillary
Swank), as well as one of the most
promising directors in the movie
industry (Christopher Nolan - wrote and
directed last year's Memento). Robin
Williams attempts another dark role,
playing a serial killer who toys around
with Pacino's cop, who is trying to
solve the case of a murdered girl. I
think the movie would've been better
served released on a non-holiday,
non-summer weekend, so that it can grow
with word of mouth. Of course the movie
has to be good for that to happen
anyway. This is also one of the summer
movies that I am looking forward to the
most, but I think that it will most
likely make $50 - $60 million.
Although The Sum of
All Fears premieres in the month of
May, it will make pretty much all of its
money in June (considering that it opens
on May 31st). But since it still does
open in May, I will discuss it here. The
movie could be surrounded by
controversy, as it deals with a group of
terrorists with a nuclear weapon on
American soil. Ben Affleck steps into
the shoes of Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan
character (previously played by Alec
Baldwin in The Hunt For Red October and
Harrison Ford in Patriot Games and Clear
and Present Danger). This time he is
aided by veteran actor Morgan Freeman
(which is always a plus!). Fears should
do very well, although it will have some
stiff competition from other movies that
are geared towards the same audience
(Bad Company, The Bourne Identity,
Windtalkers and Minority Report will
come out within three weeks following
the premiere of Sum of All
Fears). Still, I believe that Fears
could make between $80 - $100 million.
Movies that could turn
into unexpected hits include the
comedies, The New Guy, About a
Boy and Undercover Brother.
The problem for The New Guy is that it
is coming out in the weekend between
Spider-Man and AOTC (May 10). It could
open big but it will be tough. The
comedy will be lucky to make $40
million.
About A Boy stars Hugh
Grant. The romantic comedy has received
little exposure and is opening against
AOTC; not a good idea. As counter
programming, About a Boy could still
open with $10 million, but will probably
not make it past $40 million.
Undercover Brother could
see some interest in its first weekend,
but it will probably drop out of
theaters within three to four
weeks. Look for it to make less than $30
million.
The drama Unfaithful
(from the makers of Fatal Attraction)
stars Richard Gere as a married man who
suspects his wife of cheating on
him. This is yet another movie that
would probably have done better in
February or March. It won't make more
than $35 million.
This is going to be a
huge month, thanks mostly to two
movies. The combined total of Spider-Man
and Attack of the Clones could reach
over $400 million by the end of May! In
fact, together they could make close to
$500 million by the end of this month.
It's not only huge, but it's beyond
Hollywood's wildest dreams.