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Box Office and Predictions Seabiscuit (Movie Preview)
by Stephen Lucas

Tobey Maguire has, from the start of his career, been a very talented and credible actor. His various roles in several well-beloved films such as "The Ice Storm," "Wonder Boys," and "The Cider House Rules" are what have given him a strong reputation as an actor, even if he never seemed to step far beyond the drama genre.

This changed last summer when Maguire was cast in the title role of "Spider-Man" – a decision that seemed rather surprising to those who were familiar with his previous work. However, his strong performance helped propel the blockbuster to worldwide success, and consequently, he became something of a household name. It may have been is biggest and most well-known performance yet, but his stellar work in smaller, more intimate films is what first made him famous and remains his greatest strength.

With that in mind, his follow up, the $86 million horse racing drama "Seabiscuit" is likely to test this newfound notoriety of his. Can his name help open a film or will his latest film enjoy the moderate success of similar films of his? Granted, there are several other contributing factors, but that question is one many are curious to see answered.

This latest film reunites Maguire with director Gary Ross, who first collaborated with the twenty-eight year old actor back in 1998 to create the masterpiece, "Pleasantville." Adding to that are Maguire's co-stars in "Seabiscuit," including award-winning actors Jeff Bridges ("The Contender") and Chris Cooper ("Adaptation") – both of which adding to the early Oscar buzz surrounding this film, an adaptation of the best-selling novel by Laura Hillenbrand.

The film is based on a true story of the legendary, crooked-legged race horse named Seabiscuit who made racing history with the help of his jockey (Maguire), trainer (Cooper), and owner (Bridges), and stole thousands of hearts in Depression-era America.

The film, said to have spectacular camera work and cinematography, is being pitched through various trailers and TV spots as a very "triumphant" sports drama, which has its drawbacks and possibilities. Each of the lead actors plays fractured characters; Maguire is a jockey who's lost his spirit, Cooper a lost cowboy, and Bridges as millionaire with nothing to live for. With Seabiscuit as their a common link, they will defeat the odds together. Such a film seems extremely out of place in the middle of a hot, sticky summer filled with so many blockbuster auctioneers like Maguire's "Spider-Man" was last summer.

The thing about "Seabiscuit" is that even though it is an oddball comparatively, it'll need to do just as well as its competitors to earn back its hefty budget. Universal, the studio releasing "Seabiscuit," has had a pretty disappointing year thus far due in great part to the under-performing of its $125 million "Hulk" film adaptation.

The $86 million budget for "Seabiscuit" is rather steep for a drama of this kind, and truthfully, no one can guess if it'll make a profit when it opens this Friday, July 25th. Up against typically action-packed fare such as "Tomb Raider: Lara Croft and the Cradle of Life" and "Spy Kids 3D" (along with leftover hits such as "Pirates of the Caribbean") it's a tough call whether "Seabiscuit" can see its way to victory. This film is this season's box office darkhorse, indeed.

I don't think there is anyone naive enough to not believe "Tomb Raider" will claim this weekend's top spot, but also naive enough to believe "Seabiscuit" will too put up big numbers. Although I don't think it'll draw a large crowd in its first weekend, positive reviews and good word-of-mouth may help the film sustain strong figures, if success is where it is headed. Unlike most summer films, this one will most likely rely on its reviews and audience feedback to help find large numbers, opposed to heavy opening weekends making up nearly half of a film's final gross.

However, there's always that chance of failure, as there is with every movie; but with that aside, who will be the ones seeing "Seabiscuit"? Who will be the audience for this drama? The genre itself usually attracts older, more adult-heavy crowds; this particular audience (by nature) tends to pay closer attention to reviews of a film, more-so than the younger audiences that dominates several of the season's most panned films.

It's common for a film with an adult audience to either do very well by word-of-mouth or die quickly, and that's really what the performance at the box office will come down to for "Seabiscuit." If people can connect with this Oscar-hopeful film, it will most likely perform well, but if people do not take well to it, it'll collapse.

'Seabiscuit' Preview Continued >>


Seabiscuit Total US Box Office: $120.147000 million (All-Time: 539)

Gareth's Review: One of the best films of the year. [ A ]
Craig's Review: In a summer where movies have amassed over two hours worth of running time, we finally have one that deserves every second. [ A ]
Lee's Review: While I still think Seabiscuit is sappy and cheesy at times, the directing and cinematography save the show. [ B- ]
Visitor Rating Average: B+ (93 votes)
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