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The State of Movies: May

Spider-Man / Attack of the Clones

by E. Charl Hattingh

Okay, everyone is talking either about Spider-Man or Attack of the Clones (or both like me), but believe it or not, there are still other movies nestled in with these two guaranteed blockbusters. But, first of all, there is a month to look back on and that is April; or what I'd like to call the calm before the storm.

April

First of all, there was one big hit in the month of April. The Scorpion King managed to make quite a nice profit in the two weeks leading up to early summer (Spider-Man). It opened with an incredible $36 million, making it the biggest opening ever in the month of April. TSK actually opened bigger than two of the three movies that opened huge in the previous month (Blade II - $32.5 million and Panic Room - $30 million and Ice Age opened with $46 million). And surprisingly, the movie starring The Rock dropped only about 50% in its second weekend and currently stands at just over $60 million, already covering the $60 million budget. The problem is that it could drop another 50% in its third weekend, as most of its intended audience will flock to see Spider-Man. Still, it looks like The Rock will have his first $100 million hit as the star. All that talk about him being the next Arnold doesn't seem so far fetched.

Changing Lanes has turned into a nice little hit. The movie opened number one and had accumulated $44 million by the end of its third weekend. The R-rated movie starring Samuel L. Jackson and Ben Affleck received great reviews and was by far the best movie that came out in the month of April (I gave it an A). The movie could continue to do well, as older audiences would rather see a grown up film than the flashy Spider-Man and later AOTC. Changing Lanes could end with around $75 million.

I turned out to be wrong about both Jason X and Life or Something Like It, as both movies opened to pathetic numbers (both made under $7 million on their opening weekend) and neither movie will make it to $25 million. My prediction for High Crimes was pretty close, as the movie should end its run with around $45 million. Sandra Bullock's new movie was murdered by its box office numbers. The movie opened pretty low and will probably end with about $40 million.

Two other disappointments at the box office were Van Wilder and Frailty (although Frailty opened in a small amount of theaters). Both will end with under $25 million. Some of the holdovers from March continued to do well in April. Ice Age grossed an additional $50 million in April and should end up with $185 million. Blade II will most likely end with about $85 million. The Jodie Foster/David Fincher film, Panic Room sat at almost $88 million at the end of April and will just barely cross the $100 million mark before leaving theaters.

The Rookie is a hit! Slowly, but surely, the movie crept its way past $50 million and is still going (from weekend to weekend, the movie continually had the lowest percentage drop of all movies). At the end of April its total stands at about $60 million and could end with about $80 million. Which means that the movie will make about five times its opening weekend; something you don't see too often. Lord of the Rings finally managed to crawl its way into the top ten domestic grosses where it belongs. Its total now stands at $308 million. Next up at #9 is Return of the Jedi with $309 million. Unfortunately, LOTR won't pass that boy wizard (Harry Potter) which has made $317 million for #7 on the domestic list.

Column Continued >>