Jason: Lizzie McGuire is probably going to
be overshadowed by another movie this weekend, but let's start with it.
Jeremy: Nick(elodeon) is more persuasive than Disney in attracting younger
teenagers. Jason: Perhaps, but this is Disney's
most popular show on cable. I'm going with over $15m Jeremy: The market for this movie is for the 8 to 13 demographic. That's pretty narrow.
Look at Cody Banks - that underperformed
and in much less competition. Jason: Cody Banks did $14, but look at the studio. Jeremy: Young girls might go to see it with their families, but most
kids (even little) are going to want to see X2. Lee: Disney is much better than MGM.
They know how to market. Jeremy: Yeah, but Banks had more advertising and more screens. Jason: Those screens were wasted. Lee: Even with the skinniest of plots like Princess Diaries, they know
how to reach their audience's attention. Jeremy: How so? Jason: Box office is demand driven; you could have it on 5000 theaters
and it wouldn't matter. Lee: Their advertising is always constant and the material they
typically show is what the audience wants to see. Jason: It was advertised, but not as well as Disney can with its cable,
magazine, tv, movies, etc. Jeremy: Yeah but the screens weren't wasted, the demand was obviously
lower than expected. Lee: It's like the crowd pleaser movies, there's predictability in the
trailer or ads so the demographic is aware that it's a happy movie. Jason: $14 is as low as I would go. Lee: If they don't know, they may not go as eagerly. Jeremy: I just don't see that happening, Lizzie Maguire just isn't that
popular. Lee: I'm going with around $17 on that one.
Not as high as Diaries, but close. Jason: $14 -17 Jeremy: Have you seen any advertising for this outside of Disney? I haven't. Lee: Judging from the past, it just seems like you can't always
under-estimate Disney. Even though there are exceptions. Jason: Yes, plenty. Jeremy: Plus it will be competing against Disney's own Holes, which is
doing extremely well. Jason: It's different demographics. Hilary
Duff was on TV guide; I couldn't help but see her all over magazines. Lee: Country Bears was consistently advertised, at least from what I
saw, and that flopped. This is much more of a familiar story, but one that
can strike young kids, or more so girls. Jeremy: Holes is already providing for the kid's market and X2 will be
doing the same to some extent. Jason: Which is a reliable demographic in
the face of X2. Lee: But Holes is a fantasy/adventure. Lizzie is venturing back to the
territory people like, which is the ability to not fit in and feel good. And
people like that. Jason: Despite the tough competition there should be a decent fan-base
to get at least a Cody Banks open. Jeremy: Most little boys aren't going to choose Lizzie Maguire over X2,
especially since the PG-13 rating will allow most of them to see X-Men. Jason: Speaking of which, X2 3500+ theaters, a good 20% more capacity than the original. Tickets are 9.6% more expensive as well. Jeremy: I just think that X2 will cannibalize most of the films in the
top 10 with over 11,000 screens. That's pretty damn impressive. Almost 3 screens per theater. Jason: So just on a technical standpoint, X2 looks really strong. Jeremy: You have to expect a opening of at least $60+ million. The buzz and the fact that X2 is the first out of the gate for
the summer season indicate some strong numbers. Jason: It was extremely frontloaded with X-Men, so even a big open might not be enough to beat Matrix overall. Jeremy: Yes it was, but apparently the second one is superior and much
more action-orientated. Lee: I can't see much more than a $24 mil first day, followed by some
decent drops over the weekend; the original did $20, but in like 500 fewer theaters or something. Jeremy: The first one came close to that; I see this making about $27
million first day. Definitely a drop though on Saturday. Jason: It should have some breathing room the next week, though. Lee: I could see $60 for the weekend, but nearing $70 is possible. Jeremy: My prediction right now is $70 - 74 million.
Jason: I can't imagine Daddy Day Care cutting into X2's box office. Lee: I think people are under-estimating Daddy Day Care. Jeremy: Not at all, although I have a feeling DDC will make
a fair amount of money. Lee: From what I've heard for months, crowds are really enjoying the ads. Jason: Maybe a Dr.D2 Jeremy: Eddie Murray does well with kid films. Jason: What were you saying about pay off again Lee? Jeremy: All of his success's recently have been with kid films and this
seems to be getting some decent buzz, especially the trailer which is
well-received. Lee: Oh, someone mentioned to me last week that they doubt there'd be
a payoff to some of the gags in the trailer. Like the bathroom scene. Given
the PG. And really, the payoff is what would create the reaction, as by the
time the movie gets out moviegoers are going to know those jokes already. Jason: PG is for language too, so it's going to be pretty tame. I can't imagine myself sitting through the entire movie,
but I'd put its weekend at $22 - 24. Jeremy: I think the rating is gold though, since family will be
encouraged to attend especially since Adults generally enjoy Eddie. Yeah, that's seems like a good prediction depending on the screen
count, $22 - 26 million. Lee: I still think it's going to do at least
$35. Parents look at the PG and probably get excited. It's something
they know they can take their kids to. Jason: I would just remind moviegoers how awful the sold out matinees
will be. It will be Daddy Day Care (literally) in the movie theater. Jeremy: Cuts into profits like anything, unfortunately, for children films. Jason: Packed early shows, but by 7 pm it will be empty. Jeremy: No, it will have some appeal to older audiences, $25 million seems
appropriate. Lee: I think Dr. 2 turned off some interest, but this has much more of
an event feeling within the trailer. At least to me. Jason: I doubt it, this is a strictly kids event. Jeremy: I think it appeals to the same older group of theatergoers that
made Bringing Down the House a success. Lee: Well, it's a family movie, but I doubt people outside that region
would feel embarrassed by walking in. With Lizzie, you wouldn't want to be caught dead in that room if
you weren't a teenage girl.
Jeremy: Exactly, what self respecting teenager would go see Lizzie
McGuire over X2.
Jason: I think Matrix is going to give ticket takers a major headache. Imagine the amount of carding that is going to happen that
weekend. Lee: And employees thought 8 Mile's situation was horrendous... Jason: You could probably make tons of money by offering to buy tickets
for minors. Jeremy: Yeah, so lets talk about The Matrix, the 800 pound gorilla of
the summer, the already crowned box office champ. Jason: I started my prediction thinking for the weekend at
$90 million. Jeremy: I have a feeling it might not be that way; Episode 2 was like
that last year and it feel short of it's crown. Jason: I worried about that also. Lee: You have to consider its 2 hr and 20 min running time,
not to mention w/ previews. Jeremy: What about Thursday? Jason: But there's a major difference between AOTC and Reloaded Jeremy: What's that? Lee: Reloaded has a lot more positive anticipation. AOTC was iffy. Many
viewed TPM as mediocre. Jason: The Phantom Menace was boring; The Matrix was one of the most
revolutionary movies of the decade. Jeremy: That could also backfire on Reloaded, as the expectations
may be too high for the film. Jason: Reloaded looks like it could suffer from some sequel syndrome.
But regardless, people will see it on the first weekend in masses. Jeremy: However, I think Reloaded should deliver. Lee: I think there are going to be some insane forecasts thrown out for
Reloaded, and I'm only going to go so high on that one. Jason: Spider-Man's weekend gross over the 4-day is doable. Jeremy: I think this is one of those scenarios were predictors should
throw away comparisons. Lee: I don't see how $27+ Thurs isn't possible. I could see up to $33,
but I'm not confident with that. Jeremy: Reloaded anticipation is unreal. I'm thinking more like $40 million for
Thursday.
Jason: That's a little out there. Lee: Comparisons are the best way to predict, though. Jeremy: Matrix appeal is across the board outstanding. Lee: $40 is Spider-Man, which attracted nearly every audience age group
on the board. You had child tickets, students, and adults. Jeremy: Exactly, every demographic is interested in seeing the Matrix.
Jason: With the R rating, though, you'll need parents and they won't see it Thursday as easily as the weekend. Lee: You aren't going to get a whole lot of parents taking kids, at
least not on the norm. Jason: For the weekend sure, but not Thursday. Jeremy: The anticipation for this movie has been building for years
now. People I know have been saying "When is the Matrix sequel coming out?"
and that was last year. Lee: It would be funny if Lizzie opened that weekend. You'd have that
movie making like $30 mil from sneak-ins. Jeremy: That would be hilarious. Jason: Lizzie would be sold out, but only 1/4 of the seats filled. Lee: I think theaters are a little smarter than that, though. Jason: Theater managers better put those movies on separate sides. Jeremy: So other than the R rating what do you two think will hold the
Matrix back from making $40 million the first day? Lee: But for Matrix, you're likely to have people card when you buy
tickets, have them ripped, and walk in the auditorium. It's probably not going to
be easy to get by. Jason: No other movie has made that much on a weekday. Jeremy: No one thought Spider-Man would make $40 million the first day. Jason: On a Friday. Lee: Thurs is a workday for most, and only so many can rush out to their
liking. But there's still going to be a lot of it. Jason: People have work and school; only the diehards will be there in
the morning and afternoon. Jeremy: Doesn't matter for an event like The Matrix. Lee: I don't think you can really use that defense. There are usually
factors going against. Jason: The diehards will see it Wednesday night. LOTR was a huge event, and it didn't come close. Jeremy: Millions skipped work to see Phantom Menace the first day. Jason: I think AOTC, LOTR and Harry Potter were as big if not bigger and they had no restrictions. Spider-Man I will never understand. Jeremy: LOTR had a huge hindrance and that was the length of three
hours. Lee: It was 3 hours plus previews, so it was around a 3 hour and 20 min
experience. That killed a little bit. Jason: Okay, so $40 on Thursday - how much for the 4-day? Jeremy: Spider-Man appealed to every age group because lets face it, he
is the most popular comic book character and the comic has been around for 50
years. Jason: I will be shocked if Matrix makes $40 million, and there will be discussion all day about if it included
midnight showings. Jeremy: $40 million for Thursday and around $125 million for all 4 days.
There will be showings on
Wednesday at 10:00 in some theaters. Some even have 7:00 pm showings on
Wednesday, at least that's
what I have seen reported. Lee: If you think about it, TPM had those special trailer screenings in
front of specific movies and got people to pay $7+ dollars for just a
preview. Warner Bros. isn't doing that here. Jeremy: What about the Animatrix? Lee: People didn't exactly show up to Dreamcatcher. Jeremy: That's the real reason I went to Dreamcatcher - what a piece of crap. Lee: It may have gotten some hardcore people, but looking at the
box office,
there's a lot of people who didn't go. Jason: Let's never speak of Dreamcatcher again. Jeremy: That was a similar situation; the Animatrix definitely helped Dreamcatcher grosses. Jason: Animatrix wasn't that good. Jeremy: No, it wasn't but still, the excitement just seeing The Matrix
green numbers sort of showed how everyone is looking forward to this film. Lee: You had people going in to movies like The Siege to see
the trailer (TPM) and walking out right after it played. That was a sign of itself
that it would be enormous. I think people stayed for Dreamcatcher.
Jason: Unfortunately for them. Jeremy: I wish I walked out but I was forced to stay.
Jason: Down with Love looks incredibly tacky. I don't know what they were thinking. Lee: Down w/ Love is another example of mine where the trailer probably
says 75% of the movie, but the box office will partially come from that fact. Jeremy: They are trying to capitalize off of Renee and her Oscar
nomination. Lee: It's a crowd pleaser w/ a duo people like, and people will show. Jason: It's like a 1960s knockoff of the Moulin Rouge style. Lee: I think the jazzy tune of the trailer will help, with Chicago in
comparison. Jason: I can just imagine them breaking out in song and dance. Jeremy: It's decent counter programming, but they forgot that no one is
going to see anything else but the Matrix and X2 that weekend. Jason: A decent try, though. Somewhat like Unfaithful last year. Jeremy: It could do about $10 million. Jason: I have no interest in seeing it. Lee: I don't think Matrix and X2 are going to be good comparisons for
Down w/ Love. You're going after the feel-good audience, which is not the same. Jeremy: Some of that will be people sneaking into The Matrix. Jason: Some middle aged woman would probably go to Down with Love over
Matrix. Jeremy: Of course they are not comparable, it's just that the appeal
for both films is so large I doubt anyone will seriously consider Down with
Love as their first film choice that weekend. Lee: The thing with Down w/ Love is that adults can go to it with the
assurance that a 2 hour line probably won't be involved. Jason: It will definitely have an audience. Lee: it's like the About a Boy counter programming. Jason: That's the only romance until Alex and Emma. Jeremy: Possibly, although Reloaded is trying hard to plat up the
romance factor in the trailers. Jason: Nah, that won't cut it with Down with Love fans. Living in a dingy rebel hideout
and plugging your head into an outlet is not romantic. Jeremy: How many fans is that? All three of them. Lee: The romance in Reloaded is going to be for guys, probably, not
girls. They've been trying to up the sex footage in the clips. Jeremy: This is a generic comedy that maybe on any given normal weekend
might do at most $15 or 16 million, but it's not a normal weekend at all. Lee: Down w/ Love is going to be the cute romance flick that females are
going to want to flock to. Jason: It will make up the loss on the weekend during the weekdays. I can see it holding up well if they don't saturate the theater
count. Lee: I'd say $13/14 for Down w/ Love. Jeremy:: Let's face it, how will this get a decent screen count when the
Matrix and X2 will be gobbling up all the multiplexes? Jason: Next weekend looks even more crowded. Jeremy: Not likely, $12 million at the most. Lee: X2 won't be anywhere near as busy when Matrix comes out.
Screens
may have dropped already. At least, those theaters w/ more than one screen
Jason: Bruce Almighty looks like a definite hit. Jeremy: That's always packed Memorial weekend. Jason: It will be crazy that weekend. You've got every genre covered. Lee: Bruce Almighty's another case where I just can't imagine that not
doing explosive figures. Jeremy: Still, X2 should still have at least 3,200 theaters when the
Matrix arrives and the weekend after. Jason: Is In-Laws still set for that weekend also? Lee: I think In-Laws will find a reasonable crowd, but nothing special.
Bruce looks like the comedy everyone will want to see. Jeremy: No, in-laws is another Michael Douglas flop.Bruce
Almighty has the comedy covered that weekend. Lee: In-Laws is a much easier sell than Runs in the Family, even though
that's not saying much. In Laws kind of looks like the movie people may look at in question
and wonder if it'll be good, and only so many will actually go. I get a Miss
Congeniality vibe, but I don't expect it to hold up as well. Jason: That's poor placement; why put another comedy on that weekend? Lee: Bruce Almighty looks guaranteed for $50+ 3-day to me. Jeremy: I was thinking that too, but Carrey's stock has fallen
recently. Lee: I think everyone still loves Carrey.
This is like the ideal casting. Jason: I'd say $40 million would be more reasonable. Jeremy: Yeah, $40 million seems right in such a crowded marketplace. Jason: Well, supposedly, the marketplace makes room if there is really
enough demand. But I don't see that happening for Bruce's $50 million.
Jason: Weekend after belongs to Finding Nemo,
first big kid's movie in a long time and the computer animation looks spectacular. Lee: Nemo looks like a little stronger than Lilo. Jeremy: $55 million for Nemo. Lee: I'd say $45 range. Jeremy: This is one the kid's movie every kid wants to see. Lee: It doesn't have the Monsters, Inc. glare, but it's still big. Jason: Agreed, it's no Monsters or Toy Story. Lee: John Goodman and Billy Crystal were also really good candidates.
This has got Albert Brooks, who isn't as animated, even though
voices don't always matter. Jeremy: The summer release will help it out since by May 30 lots of
kids are close to being down with school. Jason: And there is nothing else opening that weekend. Lee: I think Lilo had more going for it w/ release dates; it was the
last day of school and the only thing to do that afternoon. But Nemo has an
amusing trailer for its crowd. Jeremy: Voices matter only marginally except in the case of Shrek where
it had such a huge cast of popular actors and actresses. Jason: Monsters looked better than fish. Jeremy: Look at titan A.E. - that had some famous actors voicing the
characters and that went bombs away. Lee: Well, Shrek was also DreamWorks, which isn't Disney when it comes
to star-power. But Titan A.E. had a bland story in the ads. Jason: And was aimed at older kids like Atlantis,
destined to fail there. Their animation counter is Sinbad, which looks like a pretty decent bomb. Jeremy: I haven't seen much for Sinbad except that Brad Pitt is the
voice of Sinbad. Jason: Great, but kids aren't going to care. Lee: I don't know anything about it. Jeremy: That's what I was saying before - kids could careless about the
voices. Lee: Who really is eager to hear Pitt's voice. Middle aged females will
flock to a movie to physically see him, but I don't know what voice will do. Jeremy: Adults care a little bit though, maybe not enough to entice them
to go see the movie for that sole reason.
Jason: Have you seen the Wrong Turn synopsis? Jeremy: No, I haven't. Jason:A carload of six teens find themselves trapped in the woods of
West Virginia, hunted down by "cannibalistic mountain men grossly disfigured
through generations of in-breeding." Jason: How much did that screenplay cost? Jeremy: Where did this movie come from, Hell? Lee: It looks like a Ravenous for younger people. Jeremy: Sounds absolutely absurd, though. Oh yeah, and we all know how well that did. Ravenous, what a success!!!! (obviously sarcastic). Jason: I think it just needed to be retuned. Lee: Never saw it, but I heard it was better than it looked. Jeremy: How much did that make first weekend, less than 3 million? Lee: It averaged like $1300 a screen or something, which is really,
really, poor. Jeremy: Yeah, cannibalistic films usually aren't too successful unless
Anthony Hopkins stars in them. Lee: Paramount's been advertising Italian Job well, but I don't know
if they can get it to fly too high. Jason: I don't think so either. Jeremy: I have enjoyed the previews for Italian job. Lee: It's got a good cast, but Norton looks out of place and it comes
off like familiar territory in a not so great way. Jeremy: Looks like it could achieve a solid Borne Identity grosses. Jason: No way, try a fraction of that. Bourne made $120
million in total. Lee: I'd be surprised if they didn't get away with
a $16 debut, but reaching
into $20's I just don't see happening yet. Jeremy: Norton wanted to drop out of the film from the get go. Lee: Paramount forced him into it.
Jason: Italian Job isn't going to break $70 in the long run. Jeremy: I think you are really under-estimating it. Lee: From the trailer it doesn't look like Norton wants to be there,
either. His performance is really limited. It's got ideal casting to bring in truck loads of middle aged
moviegoers, but I think the subject matter needs to be stronger. It looks
like The Score without brains. Mark Wahlberg and Norton alone are good with both genders, let
alone Theron for females and Seth Green. But I think it would have a lot more
potential with an altered story. Donald Sutherland doesn't quite have the same effect as Kiefer here.
Jason: I'd like to have seen the group meeting that came up with 2 Fast 2 Furious'
title. Lee: With a likely broadened theater count - slightly less quantity of
people but same relative gross as original. Jason: Yeah, maybe a bit less. Lee: The lack of Diesel will kill it slightly, but moviegoers will still
want fast car chases. Jason: It looks more like crashes in this one. Lee: And it's John Singleton; nobody knew who Rob Cohen from the first
was. Jason: I hate to say it, but Diesel has screen presence and no one else has it in the trailer for 2 Fast
2 Furious. Jeremy: Furious is going to be a huge disappointment. Lee: It actually looks like it could be slightly better than the
original, but I'm not counting on it being good
Jeremy: It might be a better film, but that's not saying much. This movie is just trying to rest on the laurels of the
previous one.
Lee: I didn't favor the original at all. Jason: What's the next one going to be called? Forever Fast Forever Furious,
F4 Lee: Furious Forever. Jason: Forever seems to be the choice for 3rd. Jeremy: Italian job looks to be a much better film than Furious, at
least from trailers and cast. Lee: Agreed there. Jeremy: I doubt there will be a third one. Jason: I doubt 2 Fast will be better than the original despite the bad sentiment; the first was decent for what it was. Jeremy: Definitely, only about $25 million for Furious 2. Jason: This seems like a derivative of the first. Lee: I see a $32 - 38 opening for Furious. Jason: Yeah, I would say mid-$30s at least. Jeremy: The lack of Diesel is really something that holds this film
down. I cannot believe I said that, but Diesel was the part part of the first
one. Lee: $14ish opening day, drops over the weekend. Jason: I can't see the series collapse so quickly. Jeremy: Why, the first one came out of nowhere in its popularity; it
was not built-in. Jason: People want to see car racing - Diesel was extra. Lee: I'm not sure Diesel was even completely well known when Furious
came out. I think the car racing was what got people really excited. Jeremy: Really, then why did Driven do so poorly? That had better
car-racing. Jason: It's white boy preppy racing vs. street racing. Lee: Stallone isn't Diesel. Maybe back in the day, but not today. Jason: No one has F1s to race around; modified civics are a bit more realistic. Jeremy: See it's all about the Vin Diesel badass attitude. Isn't Paul Walker a preppy white boy? He is the leading actor for the new one. Jason: But he had characters to balance him
out... Jeremy: Not anymore, though, with Diesel gone. Jason: He still does. Lee: Diesel brings in more of a tough-guy audience, whereas Walker
may keep
some of them out. Jeremy: What about Michelle Rodriguez, she's not in it
either? Lee: I know there are females who love Diesel's muscles and all, so
that's even an extra supporting factor. Jeremy: Diesel's sister? Jason: Yes yes, but no one will figure this out until the weekend is
over. Sticking with mid $30s. Jeremy: You can tell from the trailers - audiences are a little smarter
than studios think sometimes. Jason: It might have trouble cracking $100, but it will hit
$30 by
weekend's end. Lee: It could be a Red Dragon - big weekend, no one cares afterward.
Jason: Smarter? How about Dumb and Dumberer? Looks like a DTV movie magically turned into an
attempted summer blockbuster. Lee: I've been thinking Master of Disguise, but with some of the recent
trailer placements so early and audience reactions, it's getting me to wonder. Jeremy: Audiences know when they are getting the imitation. From
trailers everyone seems to understand that both Carrey and Daniels are not in
it; I wouldn't be surprised to see that movie bomb entirely. Jason: I watched the new trailer and wow is it dumb,
and appears to be an un-watch-able 90 mins. Lee: Opening night in front of Identity, it actually got a decent response in a very stupid sort of way. Jason: It's not even funny though. Except for the mini bus they have. Lee: You'd be surprised, people actually giggle
at parts, even if it's light. Not a lot, but a decent quantity. Jeremy: People recognize that Carrey is not in the movie; it's not
like they're tricking anyone. Jason: The Carrey look-a-like is sometimes dead on, but then breaks out
of character and is awkward. And the lines are god awful. Another 'Who wrote this?' script. Lee: Eugene Levy - I don't know why he's in there
- maybe studio contract. Jeremy: The Carrey imitation is just plain retarded; there is no other way
to put it - just awful; it looks like the worst movie of the summer followed probably by 2
Fast 2 Furious. Jason: At first I thought it might do alright.
But the trailer put that impression in serious doubt. Lee: I've got a feeling it might do something like Halloween
Resurrection but in more theaters. Good opening night, then collapses. I fear an audience coming out for it. Jason: Once word gets out. Jeremy: Both movies might draw some people to the theaters the first
weekend, but after that you'll see enormous declines in business. Jason: Like bad one night stands, the audience is going to feel dirty
after the first weekend and never see it again. Lee: I could see maybe $6 - 7 mil for a 1st day
at most, but that would be the
only day it would see such a gross. Jeremy: There has also been too much time between the real movie: Dumb and
Dumber. Jason: I didn't like the original. Jeremy: The original is classic Carrey; you either laugh your ass off
or think it is moronic. Lee: I'm with Ebert on the original, and he's not someone I tend to
agree with consistently. Jason: They completely overdue the stupidity in the sequel. What'd Ebert say? Lee: He liked it a lot. The thing with the new trailer is that they go overboard with
everything that doesn't work this time around. Like the misspelled words; it
just isn't funny anymore. It wasn't really funny to begin with, but here it's just unnecessary. Jason: And LOTR parody? It just doesn't fit. Lee: Yeah, at Identity people were getting excited when that theme loaded. New Line probably knows they need
Two Towers to get attention, and being the same studio they can do whatever they want. Jeremy: I heard tons of reactions to the trailer such as "Why make a
sequel without Carrey - it must suck if he is not in it." Jason: It was a lot cheaper ($30 million budget). Jeremy: This seems to be the general consensus among a lot of people I
know. Lee: I'll be honest, I didn't think the teaser was bad. But here it just
really reflects all my worst fears coming to life. Jeremy: I can't see it making over $15 million. Jason: That's rough.
Jeremy: Not rough at all, look at the first one, it wasn't insanely
popular. This movie is just trying hard to ride on the coattails of a
seven year old movie that made over $100 million. Lee: It could make back the budget, but it may not do much over. Jeremy: So it might be relatively successful with such a cheap budget. Lee: I see a good opening with practically no legs.
A reasonable to good opening, I guess.
They're actually sort of doing what Paramount did with Wayne's
World. First movie that a lot of people liked, then they go for a younger
crowd with some stupidity with a sequel. If American Pie 2 had come out in 2009, I don't know that it would
make $40 million in debut. Same case could be said for Dumber - people just
may not care anymore. Jason: If American Idol continues its great ratings, From Justin
to Kelly could really take off. Homicide - probably $15 mil
Lee: It all starts with Real Cancun, if that works Justin to Kelly
shouldn't be a problem. Homicide looks sort of unnatural in team-up, but I get a
Showtime-like debut vibe from it. Jason: Personally, I don't watch American Idol so I'd go with
$5 mil if it wasn't for its sky high ratings. $17 I'd say for Rugrats, following a modest decline from the second. Lee: Homicide's not as un-commercial as K-19. I don't have an opinion on Rugrats quite yet.
Lee: I don't know if it's just me, but I see Hulk as a Godzilla,
mid $50's 3-day. I don't believe anyone who tries to say that it'll be
Spider-like. Jason: Spider-like, no way. Godzilla sounds about right. I still don't understand Spider-man though, so I can't
say no way with as much certainty as I would like.
Lee: Godzilla had a pretty good teaser, whereas Hulk's was pretty
tame. Jason: I still remember that Saturday when the whisper numbers
with $40 million and I thought it was a typo. Lee:
From Godzilla's teaser I was dying to see the movie. And
then it sucked. Jason: Hulk probably won't suck as much as Godzilla, though. Lee: Hulk doesn't give me the same feel
- nowhere near. Jason: It does look like a lot of computer animation and
smashing stuff. I hate to insult Hulk fans, but isn't that basically the
story? Lee:
It looks sort of like Armageddon - a long and loud video game. But I liked Armageddon in a reasonable sense. Jason: I'll go with $50 mil for Hulk as well. Lee: I have a friend who says there's a good story behind it. He
gets irritated whenever I say it doesn't look great. Jason: He can email you and defend it, but for now it looks pretty simple. Lee: I'm not sure on Alex & Emma, the other movie that weekend.
Jason: I haven't heard enough about it to really say anything. Lee: I saw the trailer before Mighty Wind, looks pretty decent
but nothing special. Luke Wilson and Kate Hudson. Of course, they tag on the "from rob reiner, the director of
When Harry Met Sally" to convince us. Jason: Can't see it making much. Lee: Luke's on a pretty decent track with the female side of the
crowd -
Legally Blonde, that, and then LB2. Jason: This set up seems decent scheduling, though. Clearly there will be a sizable group of moviegoers that
have no desire to see Hulk smash tanks.
Lee: It was funny, first I thought that 28 Days Later movie the
next week was the sequel to that Sandra Bullock movie. I figured who the hell
would know the title. I don't know anything about it, though. Then there's Full Throttle, which I'm not quite sure on. Originally I thought Bernie Mac's presence in the teaser was pretty clever, and
now with the new trailer it makes me question it in terms of getting people excited. Jason: I think most people realized the original was pretty
awful, but let me see if Cinemascore backs me up on this. Lee:
But there's always an audience for cheesy fun movies, if that's what they
call them. Unless you're Eight Legged Freaks. Jason: Nope, A- for Charlie's Angels. Looks like most people liked it. Lee: I figure it would be a little tough not to repeat the
original
with the size of their campaign so far. Jason: 68% on RottenTomatoes - looks like I'm in the minority. Regardless though, the opening will be frontloaded but
strong. Lee:
I'd say around $45 - 50 for CA2.
Lee: I've got a strange feeling T3 could get
the Wild Wild West treatment. I always hear people mocking the "She'll be back" line. Jason: It's looking that way. T3 looks like the disappointment of the summer. Lee: Originally I thought MIB2 would be an easy target, but
that's not overly looking encouraging at this point. Jason: There hasn't been one encouraging sign. Lee: Legally Blonde 2 could end up being an Austin Powers 2 for
females
but I'm not positive. The trailer's pretty much what you'd expect. Jason: $35 mil for Legally Blonde 2 Lee: I have no idea about Sinbad, barely know anything about it.
Jason: I'm not sure about T3. It should have a lot of hype, but the trailer just looks
so disappointing. I see the possibility of an embarrassingly close race that
weekend and ultimately Blonde beating out T3 down the line at least on the
dailies. Lee: Wild Wild West did around $28 for 3days and
about $40 for
5-day. Armageddon was $36 and $54. It's one of those few situations where I almost wouldn't mind
the chick flick beating it out. It
just depends how corny LB2 is. If T3 is losing James Cameron and Edward Furlong, those
could be more crucial than you think in terms of sales, along with Linda
Hamilton. Jason: But if the movie is as bad as I worry it is, it could
make $50 and end up with a total of $150 or something. Lee:: T3 could maybe pull a Batman & Robin if it's terrible,
gets a good opening weekend, and then stays in theaters for 3 weeks. That
had a similar situation too -
famous director leaving and the project getting screwed over. Well, even though
Schumacher did Batman Forever. Jason: I think that's likely. The Superbowl marketing was embarrassingly bad. I think true fans will have to live with T2:3D
as the next best thing to a real sequel to T2. Lee: I think Batman & Robin had the supreme advantage of being
Batman,
whereas I'm not sure if the terminator is on the same level. Jason: It's pretty close.
Jason: Pirates, one of the only big non-sequels this summer, although based on a ride, so it's not quite original. Lee: If it were a 3-day opening, I'd say Scooby Doo easily, but
the 5-day is harder. Jason: Looking through the list, I don't see any original movies
- Finding Nemo,
I suppose. Pirates looks like mid $30s for the weekend. Lee:
To me it looks like Pirates will be the movie to see, in a
gigantic sense. I see the teaser trailer as well as the official one and it
screams huge. Jason: Disney marketing at its best. Lee:
Call me crazy, but I can see $70 for 5-days. Jason: Wow - crazy it is. Lee:
And it's got Orlando Bloom. Jason: I couldn't make that call from this far out, but that
would be a huge success. BOFC average would be around $45 - 48 prediction for the 5
day.
Lee: Someone told me they had League of
Extraordinary Gentleman
before Phone Booth and the audience totally criticized it. II watched the trailer weeks ago and it looked confusing,
in
terms of holding a point. Jason: The plot is tricky. Here's Upcoming Movies' take:
Set in a version of
Victorian Era England (1900) where many characters of fiction actually
exist....The reason for their being brought together is to foil a madman's ("The Fantom") evil plans for world domination by turning the nations of the world
against each other in something called a "World War" (if the script is anything
like the comic books, the nature of the villain, and what fictional source he's
from, may be kept secret until the end, for a "big surprise"). Lee: In one angle it's Connery back in the action genre;
in another, are people going to care for the story? Jason: Action genre ala Avengers. I think it sounds interesting, but definitely a box
office bomb possibility. Lee:
Yeah, I was searching for a good comparison. That might not be bad. Rollerball may be too harsh, but I don't know. Jason: This sounds much more creative than Rollerball. Lee: I remember Avengers had somewhat of a hip trailer, and then
did basically nothing.
Jason: Let me just put this on the record: the biggest bomb of the summer will be LXG.
It's an idea that could have only worked on a small budget, profit wise.
Lee:
Despite the overseas success, I don't see Johnny English
doing amazing here. Jason: Me either. $10 mil max $7 - 10. Lee: I'm not sure how many people in its age range actually liked
Bean. The movie, at least. I think I had it at like $7 or something originally, but
hitting $10 or so could be possible. Lee: Bad Boys 2 could be the one to watch. It could pull the surprise and have an Austin Powers
following if it really wants to - at least in terms of AP2. Jason: How to Deal - 'Walk to remember', '10
Things I Hate' range. Lee: How to Deal should be pretty expected. Mandy Moore is no Reese
Witherspoon yet.
My gut says $42 on Bad Boys. I could see it really coming out, but it's not something I'd
confidently go risky on BB2. Jason: I'd say high $30s for BB2. Lee: Extraordinary Gentleman could actually pull a Mystery Men.
Jason: Catch That Kid, I'd never heard of it until looking at
the release schedule. 12-year-old Maddy (Stewart) and her father (Robards) have
always shared a love for mountain climbing. Their hobby, however, has a
disastrous effect when an accident on Mount Everest injures his spine,
paralyzing him forever unless he gets a very expensive operation. Determined to
raise the money to pay for it, Maddy decides to recruit two of her friends to
help her break into the super-high-tech bank (which includes a vault suspended
30 feet off the floor) that her mother (Beals) works at Lee:
Yeah I just thought the same. Jason: Who wrote it? Sounds like Big Fat Liar quality.
Lee: Tomb Raider is a good question.
I know there's a decent flow of people who were mixed on the original, and a
decent flow who liked it. Jason: Tomb Raider, I'd go with mid $20s Lee: I could see as low as $35 for TR2. Jason: The first one had a lot of buzz, but that has definitely
died off. Lee:
The original did $48. Jason: I don't see any appeal left.
Not for Angelina, but for the series.
For the sequel, $25 - 30 million. Lee: It wouldn't surprise me if it got high $20's, but reaching
$40 could be possible. I think there was a lot of curiosity to see what they did
with the video game and now people know what to expect; in some point of views,
that's a good thing, and in others a bad thing. Jason: B Cinemascore for the original. Scorpion King might not be a bad comparison to TR2,
but a hypothetical Scorpion King 2 would be better for comparison. Lee:
Both cheesy movies - at least TR2 is a potential cheesy movie.
Jason: Seabiscuit voted most likely to break out on LMI.
After American Idol fans rigged the poll. Lee:
Right now I can't see it breaking out. It's not commercial enough. Who really cares about horse races, in the mainstream
department? Jason: So like a Majestic. Lee: Could be. Majestic was good, or so I thought. Jason: Majestic was corny and emotionally contrived. Lee:
It wasn't great, but for a 2.5 hour movie it was surprisingly
reasonable. Then there's Spy Kids in 3D, as if the big-screen wasn't
enough. Jason: Spy Kids $20 mil. Lee: I haven't seen the sequel, but I thought the original was
sort of fun. Sequel looked a little corny.
I misfired big time on my prediction for the sequel I
remember, so I'll watch out this time. Jason: What did you predict? Lee:Something like $35/40 I think, which was the same prediction
I had for Stuart Little. I was really off on those and E.T. Jason: Ouch. Spy Kids is going to be
in 3-D with glasses and everything - some part of the movie at least.
That should help a bit for the open: $20 - 23 mil.
Lee: I think Gigli will be an interesting one.
You'd wonder about the results w/ Affleck and Lopez, but then you factor in Pacino, Walken, and Martin Brest. Jason: Is it still called Gigli? Lee:
Yeah. Jason: I have Tough Love. Lee: April 9th, switched back to Gigli. Jason: I'd rather see American Wedding and that isn't saying much. Lee:
First there's that movie (Gigli), then Kevin Smith's movie with them
and Matt Damon, and then Damon was considering to direct the two in a movie. Jason: That would be rather strange. Lee: I don't know what the thinking process is, but I only hope...
You'd think Damon would know what's a smart and dumb move. American Wedding should do around the same as part 2.
Even with the drop in cast. Jason: Tough Love / Gigli $17, American Wedding
$38, Freaky Friday
$8. I factored in a decent drop for AP3 given part 2 only had a 3x multiplier from open to total gross. Lee: I figure people expect this to be the last in the franchise,
so they'll show up. Jason: I still say they're going to keep going up to American
Funeral - the dad will still be there, though. Lee:
You've gotta hand it to Levy, though, he's like 55 and his
career, in one angle (in terms of exposure), is just starting. Jason: I think people might not know American Weddings is AP3. Lee:
If they see the trailer, they'll know in a few seconds. Jason: But the predictions are so low. Lee: I don't think Universal would screw that up with their
success.
Jason: That's about it, but I just wanted to cover the one other
sequel: Jeepers Creepers 2 Lee: I'm not sure how big of a fan-base the original had;
it wasn't like it was a hit. Jason: I love the premise, though: "Along with two other Creepers,
the Creeper returns to dine on a bus full of basketball players and cheerleaders."
Back to the basics of teen horror. Lee:
Sounds like a direct to cable storyline. At least Final Destination 2 had a little twist.
Not a plot twist, just a slight switch in story. At least more than Jeepers.
Sounds like the fourth episode of Friday the 13th.
