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LMI Home Box Office Predictions Reviews Upcoming Featured Box Office For Monday, Oct. 9: (1) Blade Runner 2049 $4.5M   (2) LEGO Ninjago $1.9M   (3) The Golden Circle $1.4M  
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Tropic Thunder posterTropic Thunder Opening Comparisons

Lee's Prediction: $26.386 million (3-day) 3319 theaters (marked as ).
Tropic Thunder weekend gross: $25.813 million (marked as ).
$18.204
Rambo
Pineapple Express
$23.245
$30.941
Step Brothers
Charlie's Angels
$40.129
$73.071
Goldmember
Team America
$12.120
Director and Actor Comparisons (3-day opening weekend, in million $)
Ben Stiller (dir) Zoolander 2 ($13.841), Walter Mitty ($12.766), Zoolander ($15.525)
Ben Stiller: Brad's Status ($0.090), Zoolander 2 ($13.841), While We're Young ($0.228)
Jack Black: Kung Fu Panda 3 ($41.282), Goosebumps ($23.619), The D Train ($0.448)
Selected By Weekend By Gross By Theaters By Average
 Title Release First Weekend Theaters Adjusted* Adj. Avg.**
 Tropic Thunder2008 Aug 13$25,812,7963319$25,812,796$7,777
 Galaxy Quest 1999 Dec 25 $7,012,630 2412 $9,950,728 $4,126
 Austin Powers 1997 May 2 $9,548,000 2187 $14,935,651 $6,829
 Mystery Men 1999 Aug 8 $9,986,288 2132 $14,170,266 $6,646
 Team America 2004 Oct 15 $12,120,358 2539 $13,991,024 $5,510
 Something About Mary 1998 Jul 15 $13,740,644 2186 $21,035,783 $9,623
 Snakes on a Plane 2006 Aug 18 $13,804,065 3555 $15,131,784 $4,256
 Zoolander 2001 Sep 28 $15,525,043 2507 $19,729,170 $7,870
 Rambo 3 1988 Jan 1 $16,745,418 2562 $29,253,553 $11,418
 Rambo 2008 Jan 25 $18,203,876 2751 $18,203,876 $6,617
 The School of Rock 2003 Oct 3 $19,622,714 2614 $23,365,023 $8,938
 Jackass: The Movie 2002 Oct 25 $22,763,437 2509 $28,179,565 $11,231
 Pineapple Express 2008 Aug 6 $23,245,025 3072 $23,245,025 $7,567
 Rambo 2 1985 May 24 $25,520,843 2074 $51,616,804 $24,888
 Borat 2006 Nov 3 $26,455,059 837 $28,999,591 $34,647
 Starsky & Hutch 2004 Mar 5 $28,103,367 3185 $32,440,864 $10,186
 Nacho Libre 2006 Jun 16 $28,309,509 3070 $31,032,408 $10,108
 Anchorman 2004 Jul 9 $28,416,365 3091 $32,802,171 $10,612
 Meet the Parents 2000 Oct 6 $28,623,300 2614 $38,128,997 $14,586
 Jackass: Number Two 2006 Sep 22 $29,002,002 3059 $31,791,508 $10,393
 Dodgeball 2004 Jun 18 $30,070,196 2694 $34,711,255 $12,885
 Step Brothers 2008 Jul 25 $30,940,732 3094 $30,940,732 $10,000
 Rush Hour 1998 Sep 18 $33,001,803 2638 $50,523,016 $19,152
 S.W.A.T. 2003 Aug 8 $37,062,535 3202 $44,130,846 $13,782
 Ace Ventura 2 1995 Nov 10 $37,804,076 2652 $62,398,452 $23,529
 The Waterboy 1998 Nov 6 $39,414,071 2664 $60,339,665 $22,650
 Fast and the Furious 2001 Jun 22 $40,089,015 2628 $50,944,978 $19,385
 Charlie's Angels 2000 Nov 3 $40,129,000 3037 $53,455,699 $17,601
 xXx 2002 Aug 9 $44,510,000 3374 $55,100,310 $16,331
 Meet the Fockers 2004 Dec 22 $46,120,980 3518 $53,239,331 $15,133
 2 Fast 2 Furious 2003 Jun 6 $50,472,480 3408 $60,098,243 $17,634
 Men In Black 1997 Jul 2 $51,068,000 3020 $79,884,148 $26,452
 Austin Powers 2 1999 Jun 11 $54,917,604 3312 $77,926,561 $23,529
 Rush Hour 2 2001 Aug 3 $67,408,222 3118 $85,662,130 $27,473
 Bruce Almighty 2003 May 23 $67,953,330 3483 $80,912,920 $23,231
 Goldmember 2002 Jul 26 $73,071,188 3613 $90,457,091 $25,037
* adjusted for ticket prices (calculated in 2008 dollars) ** adjusted per theater gross ("crowdedness")
Other Box Office Open Comparisons
CHIPS Inferno The Accountant Mechanic: Resurrection Suicide Squad Bad Moms Jason Bourne Mike and Dave... Central Intelligence Warcraft Ninja Turtles 2 Popstar The Nice Guys Neighbors 2 Search Party Civil War Mother's Day The Boss Batman v Superman The Brothers Grimsby

About Box Office Comparisons
The box office line represents the potential extremes for 's opening weekend gross. The red notch is Lee's prediction. The red range around Lee's prediction represents the median average percent off of 500+ opening weekend predictions using abs(prediction - actual) / prediction. The actual opening weekend gross fell within the range 50% of the time. (1 pixel = approximately $121,902)

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