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LMI Home Box Office Predictions Reviews Upcoming Featured Box Office For Sunday, Dec. 3: (1) Coco $9.4M   (2) Justice League $4.7M   (3) Wonder $3.4M  
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Avatar posterAvatar Opening Comparisons

Lee's Prediction: $74.412 million (3-day) 3453 theaters (marked as ).
Avatar weekend gross: $77.025 million (marked as ).
Also opening on Dec 18, 2009: Hear About the Morgans?
$64.811
The Phantom Menace
300
$70.885
$72.630
Return of the King
Attack of the Clones
$80.028
$108.436
Revenge of the Sith
The Two Towers
$62.008
Director and Actor Comparisons (3-day opening weekend, in million $)
Selected By Weekend By Gross By Theaters By Average
 Title Release First Weekend Theaters Adjusted* Adj. Avg.**
 Avatar2009 Dec 18$77,025,4813452$77,025,481$22,313
 Alien 1979 May 25 $3,522,581 91 $10,696,096 $117,540
 Aliens 1986 Jul 18 $10,052,042 1437 $20,320,840 $14,141
 The Cell 2000 Aug 18 $17,515,915 2411 $24,372,795 $10,109
 Total Recall 1990 Jun 1 $25,533,700 2060 $45,379,799 $22,029
 Minority Report 2002 Jun 21 $35,677,000 3001 $46,134,052 $15,373
 The Last Crusade 1989 May 24 $37,031,573 2327 $69,608,220 $29,913
 Fellowship of the Ring 2001 Dec 19 $47,211,490 3359 $62,670,119 $18,657
 The Matrix Revolutions 2003 Nov 5 $48,475,000 3502 $60,292,289 $17,217
 Watchmen 2009 Mar 6 $55,214,334 3611 $55,214,334 $15,291
 The Two Towers 2002 Dec 18 $62,007,528 3622 $80,182,148 $22,138
 The Phantom Menace 1999 May 19 $64,810,970 2970 $96,063,691 $32,345
 300 2007 Mar 9 $70,885,301 3103 $77,273,221 $24,903
 The Lost World 1997 May 23 $72,132,785 3281 $117,864,028 $35,923
 Return of the King 2003 Dec 17 $72,629,713 3703 $90,335,464 $24,395
 Star Trek 2009 May 8 $79,204,289 3849 $79,204,289 $20,578
 Attack of the Clones 2002 May 16 $80,027,814 3161 $103,484,242 $32,738
 The Matrix Reloaded 2003 May 15 $91,774,413 3603 $114,147,280 $31,681
 Revenge of the Sith 2005 May 19 $108,435,841 3661 $126,875,009 $34,656
 Pirates...Caribbean 3 2007 May 25 $114,732,820 4362 $125,072,115 $28,673
 Pirates of Caribbean 2 2006 Jul 7 $135,634,554 4133 $155,306,741 $37,577
* adjusted for ticket prices (calculated in 2009 dollars) ** adjusted per theater gross ("crowdedness")
Other Box Office Open Comparisons
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About Box Office Comparisons
The box office line represents the potential extremes for 's opening weekend gross. The red notch is Lee's prediction. The red range around Lee's prediction represents the median average percent off of 500+ opening weekend predictions using abs(prediction - actual) / prediction. The actual opening weekend gross fell within the range 50% of the time. (1 pixel = approximately $92,857)

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