Lee's Movie Info - Summer Movie Predictions

Jason: Lizzie McGuire is probably going to be overshadowed by another movie this weekend, but let's start with it.
Jeremy: Nickelodeon is more persuasive than Disney in attracting younger
teenagers.
Jason: Perhaps, but this is Disney's most popular show on cable. I'm going with over $15m
Jeremy: The market for this movie is for the 8 to 13 demographic. That's pretty narrow. Look at Cody Banks - that underperformed and in much less competition.
Jason: Cody Banks did $14, but look at the studio.
Jeremy: Young girls might go to see it with their families, but most
kids (even little) are going to want to see X2.
Lee: Disney is much better than MGM. They know how to market.
Jeremy: Yeah, but Banks had more advertising and more screens.
Jason: Those screens were wasted.
Lee: Even with the skinniest of plots like Princess Diaries, they know
how to reach their audience's attention.
Jeremy: How so?
Jason: Box office is demand driven; you could have it on 5000 theaters and it wouldn't matter.
Lee: Their advertising is always constant and the material they
typically show is what the audience wants to see.
Jason: It was advertised, but not as well as Disney can with its cable,
magazine, tv, movies, etc.
Jeremy: Yeah but the screens weren't wasted, the demand was obviously
lower than expected.
Lee: It's like the crowd pleaser movies, there's predictability in the
trailer or ads so the demographic is aware that it's a happy movie.
Jason: $14 is as low as I would go.
Lee: If they don't know, they may not go as eagerly.
Jeremy: I just don't see that happening, Lizzie Maguire just isn't that
popular.
Lee: I'm going with around $17 on that one. Not as high as Diaries, but close.
Jason: $14 -17
Jeremy: Have you seen any advertising for this outside of Disney? I haven't.
Lee: Judging from the past, it just seems like you can't always
under-estimate Disney. Even though there are exceptions.
Jason: Yes, plenty.
Jeremy: Plus it will be competing against Disney's own Holes, which is
doing extremely well.
Jason: It's different demographics. Hilary Duff was on TV guide; I couldn't help but see her all over magazines.
Lee: Country Bears was consistently advertised, at least from what I
saw, and that flopped. This is much more of a familiar story, but one that
can strike young kids, or more so girls.
Jeremy: Holes is already providing for the kid's market and X2 will be
doing the same to some extent.
Jason: Which is a reliable demographic in the face of X2.
Lee: But Holes is a fantasy/adventure. Lizzie is venturing back to the
territory people like, which is the ability to not fit in and feel good. And
people like that.
Jason: Despite the tough competition there should be a decent fan-base
to get at least a Cody Banks open.
Jeremy: Most little boys aren't going to choose Lizzie Maguire over X2, especially since the PG-13 rating will allow most of them to see X-Men.
Jason: Speaking of which, X2 3500+ theaters, a good 20% more capacity than the original. Tickets are 9.6% more expensive as well.
Jeremy: I just think that X2 will cannibalize most of the films in the
top 10 with over 11,000 screens. That's pretty damn impressive. Almost 3 screens per theater.
Jason: So just on a technical standpoint, X2 looks really strong.
Jeremy: You have to expect a opening of at least $60+ million. The buzz and the fact that X2 is the first out of the gate for the summer season indicate some strong numbers.
Jason: It was extremely frontloaded with X-Men, so even a big open might not be enough to beat Matrix overall.
Jeremy: Yes it was, but apparently the second one is superior and much
more action-orientated.
Lee: I can't see much more than a $24 mil first day, followed by some
decent drops over the weekend; the original did $20, but in like 500 fewer theaters or something.
Jeremy: The first one came close to that; I see this making about $27
million first day. Definitely a drop though on Saturday.
Jason: It should have some breathing room the next week, though.
Lee: I could see $60 for the weekend, but nearing $70 is possible.
Jeremy: My prediction right now is $70 - 74 million.

May 9 May 10 - 12 2002 Weekend
Daddy Day Care $26.4M

Jason: I can't imagine Daddy Day Care cutting into X2's box office.
Lee: I think people are under-estimating Daddy Day Care.
Jeremy: Not at all, although I have a feeling DDC will make a fair amount of money.
Lee: From what I've heard for months, crowds are really enjoying the ads.
Jason: Maybe a Dr.D2
Jeremy: Eddie Murray does well with kid films.
Jason: What were you saying about pay off again Lee?
Jeremy: All of his success's recently have been with kid films and this
seems to be getting some decent buzz, especially the trailer which is
well-received.
Lee: Oh, someone mentioned to me last week that they doubt there'd be
a payoff to some of the gags in the trailer. Like the bathroom scene. Given
the PG. And really, the payoff is what would create the reaction, as by the
time the movie gets out moviegoers are going to know those jokes already.
Jason: PG is for language too, so it's going to be pretty tame. I can't imagine myself sitting through the entire movie, but I'd put its weekend at $22 - 24.
Jeremy: I think the rating is gold though, since family will be encouraged to attend especially since Adults generally enjoy Eddie. Yeah, that's seems like a good prediction depending on the screen count, $22 - 26 million.
Lee: I still think it's going to do at least $35. Parents look at the PG and probably get excited. It's something they know they can take their kids to.
Jason: I would just remind moviegoers how awful the sold out matinees
will be. It will be Daddy Day Care (literally) in the movie theater.
Jeremy: Cuts into profits like anything, unfortunately, for children films.
Jason: Packed early shows, but by 7 pm it will be empty.
Jeremy: No, it will have some appeal to older audiences, $25 million seems appropriate.
Lee: I think Dr. 2 turned off some interest, but this has much more of
an event feeling within the trailer. At least to me.
Jason: I doubt it, this is a strictly kids event.
Jeremy: I think it appeals to the same older group of theatergoers that
made Bringing Down the House a success.
Lee: Well, it's a family movie, but I doubt people outside that region
would feel embarrassed by walking in. With Lizzie, you wouldn't want to be caught dead in that room if you weren't a teenage girl.
Jeremy: Exactly, what self respecting teenager would go see Lizzie
McGuire over X2.