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Jason: I think Matrix is going to give
ticket takers a major headache. Imagine the amount of carding that is
going to happen that weekend.
Lee: And employees thought 8 Mile's
situation was horrendous...
Jason: You could probably make tons of money
by offering to buy tickets for minors.
Jeremy: Yeah, so lets talk about The Matrix, the 800 pound gorilla of the
summer, the already crowned box office champ.
Jason: I started my prediction thinking for
the weekend at $90 million.
Jeremy: I have a feeling it might not be that way; Episode 2 was like
that last year and it feel short of it's crown.
Jason: I worried about that also.
Lee: You have to consider its 2 hr and 20
min running time, not to mention w/ previews.
Jeremy: What about Thursday?
Jason: But there's a major difference
between AOTC and Reloaded
Jeremy: What's that?
Lee: Reloaded has a lot more positive
anticipation. AOTC was iffy. Many viewed TPM as mediocre.
Jason: The Phantom Menace was boring; The
Matrix was one of the most
revolutionary movies of the decade.
Jeremy: That could also backfire on Reloaded, as the expectations
may be too high for the film.
Jason: Reloaded looks like it could suffer
from some sequel syndrome. But regardless, people will see it on the first
weekend in masses.
Jeremy: However, I think Reloaded should deliver.
Lee: I think there are going to be some
insane forecasts thrown out for
Reloaded, and I'm only going to go so high on that one.
Jason: Spider-Man's weekend gross over the
4-day is doable.
Jeremy: I think this is one of those scenarios were predictors should
throw away comparisons.
Lee: I don't see how $27+ Thurs isn't
possible. I could see up to $33,
but I'm not confident with that.
Jeremy: Reloaded anticipation is unreal. I'm thinking more like $40
million for Thursday.
Jason: That's a little out there.
Lee: Comparisons are the best way to
predict, though.
Jeremy: Matrix appeal is across the board outstanding.
Lee: $40 is Spider-Man, which attracted
nearly every audience age group
on the board. You had child tickets, students, and adults.
Jeremy: Exactly, every demographic is interested in seeing the Matrix.
Jason: With the R rating, though, you'll need parents and they won't
see it Thursday as easily as the weekend.
Lee: You aren't going to get a whole lot of
parents taking kids, at
least not on the norm.
Jason: For the weekend sure, but not
Thursday.
Jeremy: The anticipation for this movie has been building for years
now. People I know have been saying "When is the Matrix sequel coming out?"
and that was last year.
Lee: It would be funny if Lizzie opened that
weekend. You'd have that
movie making like $30 mil from sneak-ins.
Jeremy: That would be hilarious.
Jason: Lizzie would be sold out, but only
1/4 of the seats filled.
Lee: I think theaters are a little smarter
than that, though.
Jason: Theater managers better put those
movies on separate sides.
Jeremy: So other than the R rating what do you two think will hold the
Matrix back from making $40 million the first day?
Lee: But for Matrix, you're likely to have
people card when you buy
tickets, have them ripped, and walk in the auditorium. It's probably not going
to
be easy to get by.
Jason: No other movie has made that much on
a weekday.
Jeremy: No one thought Spider-Man would make $40 million the first day.
Jason: On a Friday.
Lee: Thurs is a workday for most, and only
so many can rush out to their
liking. But there's still going to be a lot of it.
Jason: People have work and school; only the
diehards will be there in
the morning and afternoon.
Jeremy: Doesn't matter for an event like The Matrix.
Lee: I don't think you can really use that
defense. There are usually
factors going against.
Jason: The diehards will see it Wednesday
night.
LOTR was a huge event, and it didn't come close.
Jeremy: Millions skipped work to see Phantom Menace the first day.
Jason: I think AOTC, LOTR and Harry Potter
were as big if not bigger and they had no restrictions. Spider-Man I will never
understand.
Jeremy: LOTR had a huge hindrance and that was the length of three
hours.
Lee: It was 3 hours plus previews, so it was
around a 3 hour and 20 min
experience. That killed a little bit.
Jason: Okay, so $40 on Thursday - how much
for the 4-day?
Jeremy: Spider-Man appealed to every age group because lets face it, he
is the most popular comic book character and the comic has been around for 50
years.
Jason: I will be shocked if Matrix makes $40
million, and there will be discussion all day about if it included midnight
showings.
Jeremy: $40 million for Thursday and around $125 million for all 4 days.
There will be showings on Wednesday at 10:00 in some theaters. Some even have
7:00 pm showings on Wednesday, at least that's what I have seen reported.
Lee: If you think about it, TPM had those
special trailer screenings in
front of specific movies and got people to pay $7+ dollars for just a
preview. Warner Bros. isn't doing that here.
Jeremy: What about the Animatrix?
Lee: People didn't exactly show up to
Dreamcatcher.
Jeremy: That's the real reason I went to Dreamcatcher - what a piece of
crap.
Lee: It may have gotten some hardcore
people, but looking at the box office,
there's a lot of people who didn't go.
Jason: Let's never speak of Dreamcatcher
again.
Jeremy: That was a similar situation; the Animatrix definitely helped
Dreamcatcher grosses.
Jason: Animatrix wasn't that good.
Jeremy: No, it wasn't but still, the excitement just seeing The Matrix
green numbers sort of showed how everyone is looking forward to this film.
Lee: You had people going in to movies like
The Siege to see
the trailer (TPM) and walking out right after it played. That was a sign of
itself
that it would be enormous. I think people stayed for Dreamcatcher.
Jason: Unfortunately for them.
Jeremy: I wish I walked out but I was forced to stay.
Summer
Breakdown Continues With Down With Love>>
May 2 - May 9 |
May 15 |
May 16 - May 30 |
June 6 - June 13
June 20 - July 9 |
July 11 - July 25 |
August 1 - Beyond
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