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Summer Breakdown - Predictions and Expectations

May 2 - May 9 | May 15 | May 16 - May 30 | June 6 - June 13 
June 20 - July 9 | July 11 - July  25  |  August 1 - Beyond


The average BOFC player predictions as of April 25 are listed in italics.  You can submit your own predictions at BOFC Summer Season.


August 1 August 2002 Box Office   August 2 - 4 2002 Box Office
American Wedding $27.6M Gigli $13.4M

Lee:
I think Gigli will be an interesting one. You'd wonder about the results w/ Affleck and Lopez, but then you factor in Pacino, Walken, and Martin Brest.
Jason: Is it still called Gigli?
Lee: Yeah.
Jason: I have Tough Love.
Lee: April 9th, switched back to Gigli.
Jason: I'd rather see American Wedding and that isn't saying much.
Lee: First there's that movie (Gigli), then Kevin Smith's movie with them and Matt Damon, and then Damon was considering to direct the two in a movie.
Jason: That would be rather strange.
Lee: I don't know what the thinking process is, but I only hope... You'd think Damon would know what's a smart and dumb move. American Wedding should do around the same as part 2. Even with the drop in cast.
Jason: Tough Love / Gigli $17, American Wedding $38, Freaky Friday $8. I factored in a decent drop for AP3 given part 2 only had a 3x multiplier from open to total gross.
Lee: I figure people expect this to be the last in the franchise, so they'll show up.
Jason:  I still say they're going to keep going up to American Funeral - the dad will still be there, though.
Lee: You've gotta hand it to Levy, though, he's like 55 and his career, in one angle (in terms of exposure), is just starting.
Jason: I think people might not know American Weddings is AP3.
Lee: If they see the trailer, they'll know in a few seconds.
Jason: But the predictions are so low.
Lee: I don't think Universal would screw that up with their success.

Jason: That's about it, but I just wanted to cover the one other sequel: Jeepers Creepers 2
Lee: I'm not sure how big of a fan-base the original had; it wasn't like it was a hit.
Jason: I love the premise, though: "Along with two other Creepers, the Creeper returns to dine on a bus full of basketball players and cheerleaders." Back to the basics of teen horror.
Lee: Sounds like a direct to cable storyline. At least Final Destination 2 had a little twist. Not a plot twist, just a slight switch in story. At least more than Jeepers. Sounds like the fourth episode of Friday the 13th.
Jason: As long as horror movies can keep their budgets low, it seems like they will always make a profit.
 
Top 10 Summer Openers By BOFC Player Averages (subject to change)
1. The Matrix Reloaded $78.4 million
2. X2: X-Men United $65.3 m
3. Terminator 3 $53.7 m
4. Finding Nemo $47.3 m
5. The Hulk $45.2 m
6. Bruce Almighty $38.2 m
7. Legally Blond 2 $35.2 m
8. 2 Fast 2 Furious $33.3 m
9. Pirates of the Caribbean $33.2 m
10. Charlie's Angels 2 $33.1 m


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