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Summer Previews: June
By Philip Friedman Published June 2, 2008
Here's my initial take on the major US release slated for June 2008. Like last month, I'll add to my analysis as the month progresses.
While May was dominated by one big release per weekend, June is filled with dual release weekends.
June 6
You Don't Mess With The Zohan
I don't think anyone expect an Oscar-worthy performance from a zany summer Adam Sandler comedy, but according to early reviews, the movie isn't that bad. With the exception of Reign Over Me and Spanglish, Adam Sandler has a string of $30+ million opens: Chuck and Larry ($34.2 million), Click ($40.0 million), The Longest Yard ($47.6 million), 50 First Dates ($39.9 million), Anger Management ($42.2 million). I think Zohan could at least match Chuck and Larry's open, but the concept doesn't seem as appealing as other Sandler movie. I therefore believe it is unlikely to reach 50 First Dates or Anger Management adjusted for inflation (high 40s).
Kung Fu Panda
The trailer looks much less appealing than the Pixar CGI alternative opening later in the month, but what options have kids had recently? Speed Racer and Indiana Jones probably have been filling in as family movies, but this weekend there's a clear-cut option. I wouldn't be surprised for a very strong opening over $60 million. With three weeks until any competition and the summer weekdays, this Panda could have a shot at the $200 million mark.
June 13
The Happening
The buzz hasn't been good, but if that's because of the trailer and tv ads, I think it's unwarranted. The clips I've seen have been really good. I'm surprised the tracking has been so weak. I had thought that the Friday the 13th open would give The Happening the edge at the box office. For full disclosure, however, I've read the script and the concept of the movie is fatally flawed or at least it was. So much so that it made me angry. I'll try to expand on that in another article.
The Incredible Hulk
It's hard for me to understand why this was even made yet alone is tracking so well. Yes, The Hulk opened with a very strong $62.1 million back in 2003, but it had horrible legs grossing only $132.2 million. I also hated it. I certainly don't see anything new in the trailers for the "Incredible" version. Despite having serious reservation about The Happening and previously trashing The Love Guru, I think I'd rather see both those movies before sitting through this movie. It qualifies as my least anticipated movie of June. If this movie opens with more than the Hulk 1, I'll be at a loss.
June 20
Get Smart
It's not my type of humor, but it certainly looks better than the 1998 Avengers movies and will not doubt be able to beat Avengers' $10 million open. Neither Steve Carell nor Anne Hathaway are quite yet proven box office draws, but this movie could do a lot to help.
The Love Guru
The first trailer was awful and I think Paramount figured that out quickly. I watched the second trailer in theaters and the audience laughed at every punch line. I was rolling my eyes, but I'm not going to fight the consensus opinion, which seems to be rather positive. Also, now that I think about it, why is Love Guru and Get Smart opening on the same weekend and Hulk and Happening on the previous weekend? It seems like these weekend should swap one movie to the other. Two dark action movies and then two goofy comedies -- why not try to counterprogram?
June 27
WALL-E
I have a tremendous respect for Pixar and WALL-E is my most anticipated movie of June. I can only hope that moviegoers appreciate the vast quality gap between Pixar and non-Pixar animation and story. WALL-E appears to be taking a substantial risk with minimal dialogue and few characters. I'm hoping for a $70 million plus open, but I don't know if that's possible.
Wanted
My first thought was, jeez, how many people are going to be rushed to the emergency room when idiots try to curve bullets around their friends. At least Morgan Freeman warns that only a few people possess that ability. If it wasn't for the R-rating, I would expect Wanted to match Mr. and Mrs. Smith's $50.3 million open (around $56 million adjusted). I think the movie will skew younger than Smiths and that rating restriction will take a bite out of ticket sales (maybe it'll help WALL-E out).
June 6
You Don't Mess With The Zohan
I don't think anyone expect an Oscar-worthy performance from a zany summer Adam Sandler comedy, but according to early reviews, the movie isn't that bad. With the exception of Reign Over Me and Spanglish, Adam Sandler has a string of $30+ million opens: Chuck and Larry ($34.2 million), Click ($40.0 million), The Longest Yard ($47.6 million), 50 First Dates ($39.9 million), Anger Management ($42.2 million). I think Zohan could at least match Chuck and Larry's open, but the concept doesn't seem as appealing as other Sandler movie. I therefore believe it is unlikely to reach 50 First Dates or Anger Management adjusted for inflation (high 40s).
Kung Fu Panda
The trailer looks much less appealing than the Pixar CGI alternative opening later in the month, but what options have kids had recently? Speed Racer and Indiana Jones probably have been filling in as family movies, but this weekend there's a clear-cut option. I wouldn't be surprised for a very strong opening over $60 million. With three weeks until any competition and the summer weekdays, this Panda could have a shot at the $200 million mark.
June 13
The Happening
The buzz hasn't been good, but if that's because of the trailer and tv ads, I think it's unwarranted. The clips I've seen have been really good. I'm surprised the tracking has been so weak. I had thought that the Friday the 13th open would give The Happening the edge at the box office. For full disclosure, however, I've read the script and the concept of the movie is fatally flawed or at least it was. So much so that it made me angry. I'll try to expand on that in another article.
The Incredible Hulk
It's hard for me to understand why this was even made yet alone is tracking so well. Yes, The Hulk opened with a very strong $62.1 million back in 2003, but it had horrible legs grossing only $132.2 million. I also hated it. I certainly don't see anything new in the trailers for the "Incredible" version. Despite having serious reservation about The Happening and previously trashing The Love Guru, I think I'd rather see both those movies before sitting through this movie. It qualifies as my least anticipated movie of June. If this movie opens with more than the Hulk 1, I'll be at a loss.
June 20
Get Smart
It's not my type of humor, but it certainly looks better than the 1998 Avengers movies and will not doubt be able to beat Avengers' $10 million open. Neither Steve Carell nor Anne Hathaway are quite yet proven box office draws, but this movie could do a lot to help.
The Love Guru
The first trailer was awful and I think Paramount figured that out quickly. I watched the second trailer in theaters and the audience laughed at every punch line. I was rolling my eyes, but I'm not going to fight the consensus opinion, which seems to be rather positive. Also, now that I think about it, why is Love Guru and Get Smart opening on the same weekend and Hulk and Happening on the previous weekend? It seems like these weekend should swap one movie to the other. Two dark action movies and then two goofy comedies -- why not try to counterprogram?
June 27
WALL-E
I have a tremendous respect for Pixar and WALL-E is my most anticipated movie of June. I can only hope that moviegoers appreciate the vast quality gap between Pixar and non-Pixar animation and story. WALL-E appears to be taking a substantial risk with minimal dialogue and few characters. I'm hoping for a $70 million plus open, but I don't know if that's possible.
Wanted
My first thought was, jeez, how many people are going to be rushed to the emergency room when idiots try to curve bullets around their friends. At least Morgan Freeman warns that only a few people possess that ability. If it wasn't for the R-rating, I would expect Wanted to match Mr. and Mrs. Smith's $50.3 million open (around $56 million adjusted). I think the movie will skew younger than Smiths and that rating restriction will take a bite out of ticket sales (maybe it'll help WALL-E out).
'Wall-E' Articles
- Friday Analysis: 'WALL-E' 'Wanted'
June 28, 2008 I don't see WALL-E declining on Saturday, but if it follows Ratatouille, that would translate to a weekend total of $65 - $67 million while Wanted should emulate Mr. and Mrs. Smith's open with around $50 million. -- Philip Friedman
