Friday Box Office Analysis (2/18)
Constantine poster
By Lee Tistaert     Published February 19, 2005
Constantine isn?t premiering in summer like {Riddick} and isn?t a sequel with a cult audience, and so its second day prospects are better.
Keanu Reeves? dark Matrix-esque thriller, Constantine, turned in very similar results as Minority Report on opening day, grossing $11.5 million for a robust $3,813 per-screen in 3,006 theaters. The figure outpaced the first Matrix, which posted a $9.6 million Friday and $3,380 per-screen in 2,849 theaters. However, The Matrix debuted on a Wednesday, and so its haul of $37.4 million (over five days) will be more substantial than this flick?s three-day turnout.

The gross was also relative to Vin Diesel?s Pitch Black sequel, The Chronicles of Riddick, which earned $9.9 million and $3,590 per-screen in 2,757 theaters. That entry had a cult crowd from the first installment that rushed out on opening day, and considering its sci-fi nature (a genre that tends to be front-loaded) its second day dropped to $8.4 million and $3,060 per-screen.

Constantine isn?t premiering in summer like that flick and isn?t a sequel with a cult audience, and so its second day prospects are better, though it shouldn't reach out to the adult crowd that partly flocked to Minority Report (which grossed $13.3 million on Saturday). A second day take of about the same figure as Friday could result (a 1 - 5% increase), with Sunday likely to be at around $7.0 million. Constantine?s three-day weekend tally should look like $30.0 million.

The dog picture, Because of Winn-Dixie neared Secondhand Lions, turning in $2.9 million on Friday and $900/screen in 3,188 theaters. Lions debuted to $3.7 million ($1,240/screen), which lead to a weekend frame of $12.1 million. That family drama boasted solid star power between Robert Duvall and Michael Caine, and so it was easier to draw in more of a crowd (of adults) on Friday when kids are in school. Saturday and Sunday should make up for the deficiency with matinees, with a 65 - 75% second day increase likely, and Sunday should be roughly 25 - 35% higher than Friday. Winn-Dixie?s three-day should end up at about $11.0 million.

This week?s underdog that could?ve gone a bunch of different ways at the box office, The Son of the Mask, left kids at home in a triumphant act of God. The sequel, which is about ten years too late, brought in $2.0 million for a pitiful $660/screen in 2,966 theaters. The figure was right in line with the Olsen twins? adventure, New York Minute, which opened to $2.2 million in 3,006 theaters. The debut was also comparable to See Spot Run ($2.3 million), and Baby Geniuses 2?s per-screen average of $791 ($1.0 million in 1,276 theaters). Saturday should see a big boost of 45 - 75%, though the higher range is more probable. Son of the Mask should turn in roughly $8.0 million for three days, which will be a long cry from the $23.1 million debut of the original Mask.
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'Constantine' Articles
  • Weekend Outlook Chat (Feb. 18 - 20)
    February 17, 2005    "The first Matrix looked really unique for the time, and had one very cool trailer. Constantine seems somewhat familiar in comparison." -- Staff of LMI