Friday Box Office Analysis (3/11)

Robots failed to live up to the level of Shark Tale and Ice Age on Friday, ultimately proving that 20th Century Fox still has a ways to go before they reach Pixar?s landmark box office status. The family picture grossed $10.0 million, which is a strong figure most days of the week, but given the ultra-wide distribution of 3,775 theaters, the debut is a bit under-whelming.

Shark Tale entered 4,016 theaters and had grossed $12.9 million ($3,217/screen) on opening day, leading to a $47.6 million weekend frame. Ice Age had grossed $13.5 million ($4,062/screen in 3,316 theaters), and posted a $46.3 million weekend. Robots was more in line with Disney?s adventure, Dinosaur, which took in $11.0 million ($3,362 per-screen) albeit in 500 fewer theaters. Ice Age and Cat in the Hat ($11.2 million Fri) increased in their sales by roughly 45% on Saturday, whereas Shark Tale managed a robust 63% boost. Neither of those ranges will likely give Robots what it takes to hit the $40 million mark (Sunday would have to be at least 35% higher than Friday?s attendance), but both spectrums are a possibility. Saturday could look like $14.5 - 16.5 million, putting the weekend on course for $35 - 37 million.

In terms of modest theater releases, Hostage debuted exactly like the teen thriller, Cabin Fever. The Bruce Willis flick took in $3.3 million in just 2,123 theaters, averaging a decent $1,535 per-screen. In comparison, Cabin Fever had debuted to $3.1 million in 2,087 theaters. More relative in terms of genre, Hostage opened alongside Twisted, which had grossed $2.8 million in 2,703 theaters, as well as Cellular, which debuted to $3.2 million in 2,749 theaters.

Twisted jumped 46% on its second day and posted a $8.9 million weekend, while Cabin Fever rose a slim 11% and racked up $8.6 million. While there is the difference in genre between Fever and Hostage (horror movies don?t usually increase by much on Saturdays), both are aimed primarily at younger moviegoers who tend to rush out on opening day. Twisted boasted a cast who appealed to adults, and while Willis can attract adults, the premise is built more towards the adrenaline cravings amongst teens and young adults. Cellular targeted similar groups of moviegoers (however, its audience was split between younger and adult patrons), but with 600 additional venues it was easier to finish with $10.0 million. A Saturday boost of 10 - 15% could result, which should give Hostage a weekend take of roughly $9.0 million.