Friday Box Office Analysis (6/24)

Although Bewitched got beaten out by Batman Begins on its opening day, the big-screen adaptation of the television series nevertheless withdrew $8.0 million, averaging $2,506 per-screen in 3,174 theaters. In comparison, last June Nicole Kidman opened the remake of The Stepford Wives to an equivocal $7.9 million ($2,576/screen). The figure for Bewitched is a notch above the political thriller, The Interpreter, which featured Kidman and Sean Penn and opened (this spring) to $7.3 million and $2,645/screen in 2,758 theaters.

The Interpreter saw a fine 34% second day increase, most likely due to its mature nature. Director Sydney Pollack had a good reputation and could lure in older filmgoers, and Kidman and Penn provided solid talent for the adult demographics. The Stepford Wives, however (which was a lighter movie), only jumped up 3%, and was a lot more front-loaded, as it dropped an alarming 60% the next Friday (from its opening day). Part of the blame for that (as well as the weak second day boost) could be pointed at the movie?s word of mouth.

Bewitched could see up to a 30% Saturday increase, but it?s a long shot chance, as there's probably a bit of difference in appeal between Will Ferrell and Sean Penn amongst adults. A boost in the 20% range could be more likely (with help from the date crowds), but the movie could also suffer the same pattern as Stepford. A weekend gross of $22 - 24 million should be expected.

Legendary cult filmmaker George A. Romero returned to theaters on Friday with Land of the Dead, which turned in a decent $4.4 million. The figure was only from 2,249 theaters, making its $1,956 average close to a solid figure, though it was nowhere near the $10.9 million ($3,956/screen) intake of the very similar genre flick (and remake), Dawn of the Dead. It is uncertain how many of today?s moviegoers even know who Romeo is, as the director was behind 1968?s Night of the Living Dead and 1978?s Dawn of the Dead. Many critics applauded Land of the Dead as they also did with the Dawn of the Dead remake, as they scored 74% and 77% (respectively) at the movie review web-site, Rotten Tomatoes (which means that only 26% and 23% of critics disliked them).

Horror movies aren?t known for getting much of a second day increase and some of them that have built-in audiences fall on Saturday due to the opening night rush. Land of the Dead isn?t a sequel or a remake, and so its chances of staying up are decent. The movie could rise up (around 10%) to about $4.8 million, with the weekend likely to be roughly $12.0 million.

Disney booked Herbie: Fully Loaded in a mammoth 3,521 theaters for the weekend and withdrew just $4.1 million on Friday for $1,177 per-screen. The opening proves that Lindsay Lohan may not be a guaranteed sell despite that Mean Girls had debuted to $8.6 million on its opening day. Herbie, however, was obviously meant for kids rather than teenagers and young adults who found their way to Mean Girls. The latter film also had the benefit of being written by Tina Fey, a Saturday Night Live talent who many people admire.

As a long shot, a follow through similar to Agent Cody Banks could be on the way, as the Frankie Muniz spy flick jumped up 47% (to $6.2 million) from its $4.2 million ($1,243/screen) opening day gross in 3,369 theaters (a huge count that was also not necessary). A Saturday incline in the 30% range could be another path, which would put Herbie?s 3-day at $12.5 - 13.0 million.