Friday Box Office Analysis (9/9)

Exorcism of Emily Rose shocked on its opening day, bringing in a thunderous $11.6 million in 2,981 theaters, averaging $3,891 per-screen. The debut for the eerie thriller was in line with The Sixth Sense (which also surprised) on a per-screen average basis, which opened to $8.0 million but $3,704/screen, as well as Panic Room, which took in $11.8 million and $3,860/screen. The premiere is the biggest yet for Laura Linney and Tom Wilkinson as leading stars, who are more known on the art house circuit than by mainstream moviegoers.

The debut proves the appeal of (perhaps underdog) supernatural flicks, as Michael Keaton?s White Noise also opened to larger than expected business with $8.9 million and $3,945/screen, and What Lies Beneath (while having bigger names than everything else) scared up $9.6 million and $3,410/screen (and the re-release of Exorcist averaged $4,098/screen in 664 theaters).

A slight increase on Saturday like White Noise (10%) and Sixth Sense (21%) is possible for Emily Rose, but following through like Panic Room (which dropped 6%) could very well result (although, it opened on a holiday). But considering moviegoers might be tired of the crop of summer flicks (which aided in the consistent box office slump) that are still playing, it could help in leading many in. A weekend take of $30 - 32 million should be on the way.

Samuel L. Jackson and Eugene Levy retrieved embarrassing results from the buddy comedy, The Man, which took in $1.3 million for a $647 average in 2,040 theaters. The debut is even worse than Levy?s should?ve-been-straight-to-video flick, New York Minute, which grossed $2.2 million and averaged $727/screen in 3,006 theaters. The day when the Olsen twins beat out Samuel?s appeal is the day that Jackson should have one nice talk with his agent.

Not that Samuel L. is invincible ? he did in fact star in Formula 51, which debuted to roughly $900,000 on opening night and averaged $498/screen in 1,857 theaters. The legs for this movie should be interesting; the ads proved that the movie probably didn?t have any money moments and that this was purely a ?paycheck? thing for both stars (and to call it a movie might even be a stretch). The Man should see a three-day take of about $4.0 million.