Weekend Outlook (March 31 - April 2)

This weekend Ice Age 2: The Meltdown hopes to land the biggest box office opening of March. The original, which opened in early March of 2002, holds the record with $46.3 million in 3,316 theaters, having averaged $13,966 per-screen. The sequel will be opening in 3,962 theaters, which is close to the 4,163-theater release of Shrek 2. The fan base for the family adventure is not as vast as that of Shrek, but the original did finish with $176.3 million domestically, an impressive 3.8 multiplier from its opening weekend tally.

Ice Age has no doubt picked up more viewers since then, and with the success of this year?s much smaller (budget wise) family-friendly films (ranging from Eight Below to The Pink Panther to The Shaggy Dog), Fox is heading towards a very uneventful box office finish. In the Los Angeles area, theater bookings are in line with Fox?s Mr. and Mrs. Smith ($50.3 million) and 2 Fast 2 Furious ($50.5 million). Strangely enough, barely any kids? movies line up in comparison; the only two are Scooby Doo 2 ($29.4 million) and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($56.2 million). It?s hard to imagine Ice Age could compete with Charlie given the film had a big summer ad-campaign and partly played off Johnny Depp?s huge appeal from Pirates of the Carribean.

But Fox has also grounded the franchise in an effective ad-campaign that has featured the scene-stealing squirrel, Scrat, with his desperate (and failed) attempts in grabbing hold of an acorn. Four years ago he held audiences in suspense during the first teaser when no one had any idea what movie it was; the sequel?s teaser isn?t as fresh or original and audience reactions haven?t been as memorable, but nevertheless fans this time know exactly what movie it is for. Fox will obviously aim to hit the $50 million mark and grab the March record (which the huge theater count will help in achieving), but going much higher over that mark will likely require an expanded fan base.