Friday Box Office Analysis
Mission: Impossible III poster
By Lee Tistaert     Published May 6, 2006
Though the weekend figure {for Mission Impossible 3} will likely be above $40 million, the debut marks a slow transition from the spring to summer.
Tom Cruise?s wish to start the summer season with a bang didn?t quite follow through exactly as planned, as Mission: Impossible 3 came in yesterday with an under-whelming $17.0 million in ticket sales, averaging $4,198 per-screen in 4,054 theaters. The sequel did not best the second installment by much, as MI2 had delivered $16.5 million in 3,653 theaters for a $4,513 average. Though the weekend figure will likely be above $40 million, the debut marks a slow transition into summer, as this weekend has been known for huge performances (X2 had opened to $31.2 million on its first day in 3,741 theaters for an enormous $8,353 average). And next week may prove to be another rather slow weekend with Poseidon looking to under-perform.

Established TV director J.J. Abrams came aboard this Mission: Impossible entry and made it more of a James Bond flick than before, which is ironic considering the opening is right on track with Die Another Day, which grossed $16.8 million in 3,314 theaters for a $5,075 average. Considering that MI3 has a rather wide demographic the chances of it dropping on Saturday are not great, but a gross like this in over 4,000 theaters is not that impressive, which could increase the possibility of a drop or not as sturdy of an incline as it would normally get. Saturday may look like $19 million or so followed by around $11/12 million on Sunday, which could lead to a $46 million weekend frame ? on par with the $47.1 million weekend debut of Die Another Day. In comparison, MI2 had debuted to $57.8 million for three days over Memorial Day weekend.

Prospects for the teen/young adult creepy fest, An American Haunting, were quite questionable before the weekend, as Freestyle Releasing hadn?t experienced mainstream success before. The film came in with a decent $2.0 million in just 1,667 theaters, averaging $1,215 per-screen. The studio was heavily relying on television commercials to capture interest much like Stick It?s persistent commercial campaign the week of its debut, as theater ads for Haunting had been scarce. The lack of star-power likely contributed to the modest opening as well. With an increase to about $2.5 million likely on Saturday, An American Haunting is headed for nearly $6.0 million.

New Line saw atrocious results from their family release, Hoot, as the pic took in $963,000 in 3,018 theaters, averaging an unbelievably bad $319 per-screen, making it the weakest debut in history for a movie in over 3,000 theaters (and that even includes New York Minute). Family audiences may help on Saturday and Sunday matinees, but Hoot is still not looking to catch much more than $3.0 million for the weekend ? making it the biggest surprise of the weekend.
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'Mission: Impossible III' Articles
  • Crowd Report: MI3
    May 6, 2006    MI3 was booked in the biggest venue with 1300 seats, across from the UCLA campus, and the line to get in by 9:20 wasn't any longer than Daredevil. -- Lee Tistaert
  • Early Weekend Outlook (May 5 - 7)
    May 2, 2006    It?s hard to avoid gossip surrounding {Cruise's} personal life, and the classic saying that there?s no such thing as bad publicity may prove itself once again (as with War of the Worlds). -- Lee Tistaert