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Craig Younkin
Weekend Outlook Chat (Jan. 28 - 30)
By Staff of LMI Published January 26, 2005
"Besides the R-rating, I don't see why the same people who came out for White Noise won't be back for this."
Jason: A few weeks ago I was thinking that Hide and Seek was going to perform along the lines of Godsend ($6.8 million). But there are a lot of problems that Godsend had that Hide and Seek doesn't. The article you sent me really helped turn me around [Update Jan. 28: many projectionist report that this story is bogus].
Lee: I was thinking City by the Sea ($8.9 million) or slightly more in our first box office chat, and recently I have been getting more faith in a strong opening. The trailer actually doesn't look as stupid as I remembered. The movie just looks like it could either be entertaining or mediocre.
Jason: I thought you might predict low teens. You know I never even noticed the tagline, it says "whatever" instead of "where ever" ("Come out, come out, whatever you are"). Another factor that makes me reconsider Hide and Seek's prospects is the recent box office strength of new releases. For White Noise and Are We There Yet to open so well when I had figured much lower figures.
Lee: I think Dokota Fanning might have the same effect that Brittany Murphy had in the Don't Say a Word trailer, in that people are curious about her character.
Jason: A friend of mine was skeptical if a 10-year-old could headline a movie.
Lee: White Noise also had terrible reviews, so the whole "reviews matter" theory crashed there.
Jason: That theory crashed a while ago. Horror movies often surprise on the upside, at least in the first day or two.
Lee: The trailer for Hide and Seek reminds me of Identity ($16.2 million) and The Forgotten ($21.0 million).
Jason: But you, BOFC players and HSX are basically in agreement: $18 - 19.
Lee: The thing is, Forgotten?s trailer was booked in front of lot of Bourne Supremacy spots, and Hide and Seek was shown at Saw ($18.3 million), so there's a difference in exposure. So I'm not confident in a Forgotten debut.
Jason: I'm going to have to buck the trend then, against my better judgement, but I'll go with the low $20's, $23.5. Last weekend it was almost impossible for most people in the northeast to get outside their houses. This weekend's weather should be better for that region.
Lee: The trailer also reminds me of The Others in a way, and that had a really strong per-screen average, but in about 1500 fewer theaters. The question is, does DeNiro have the appeal that Nicole Kidman had? At least for headlining.
Jason: I think he has the same draw.
Lee: In Meet the Fockers he is supported by various people.
Jason: That's true, but he must be some part of that success.
Lee: I mean City by the Sea and Godsend proved he wasn't a box office lock, but Godsend was most likely terrible anyway. And City didn?t really have a catch.
Jason: I think Godsend's release date was moved around. That has never helped for an opening.
Lee: You'd think Hide and Seek would have to at least outdo Uptown Girls ($11.3 million). I think City by the Sea and 15 Minutes ($10.5 million) looked more typical, whereas Hide and Seek has a catch within the story ? that should be appealing.
Jason: Dakota Fanning also has more exposure after Man on Fire ($22.7 million) and upcoming War of the Worlds than she did with Uptown Girls.
Lee: I forgot about Man on Fire. That had 2980 theaters, this is getting 3005. I'm still questionable about whether DeNiro can bring in people like Denzel or Kidman does. I mean people go see Denzel movies to see him take command and kick everyone's ass. DeNiro's not quite like that.
Jason: Besides the R-rating, I don't see why the same people who came out for White Noise won't be back for this. White Noise looked like a typical thriller with weak star power. Hide and Seek has some aspect of suspense and a lot more star power.
Lee: It started with an early ad-campaign, which is hopeful. Coach Carter started back in Oct, which was a sign of a $20+ debut. It's not like Alone in the Dark, which seems to be coming out of nowhere.
Jason: That looks really awful.
Lee: This weekend last year was when The Butterfly Effect made $17. Alone in the Dark reminds me of Ghosts of Mars.
Jason: Butterfly Effect was directed at a younger crowd.
Lee: I was thinking City by the Sea ($8.9 million) or slightly more in our first box office chat, and recently I have been getting more faith in a strong opening. The trailer actually doesn't look as stupid as I remembered. The movie just looks like it could either be entertaining or mediocre.
Jason: I thought you might predict low teens. You know I never even noticed the tagline, it says "whatever" instead of "where ever" ("Come out, come out, whatever you are"). Another factor that makes me reconsider Hide and Seek's prospects is the recent box office strength of new releases. For White Noise and Are We There Yet to open so well when I had figured much lower figures.
Lee: I think Dokota Fanning might have the same effect that Brittany Murphy had in the Don't Say a Word trailer, in that people are curious about her character.
Jason: A friend of mine was skeptical if a 10-year-old could headline a movie.
Lee: White Noise also had terrible reviews, so the whole "reviews matter" theory crashed there.
Jason: That theory crashed a while ago. Horror movies often surprise on the upside, at least in the first day or two.
Lee: The trailer for Hide and Seek reminds me of Identity ($16.2 million) and The Forgotten ($21.0 million).
Jason: But you, BOFC players and HSX are basically in agreement: $18 - 19.
Lee: The thing is, Forgotten?s trailer was booked in front of lot of Bourne Supremacy spots, and Hide and Seek was shown at Saw ($18.3 million), so there's a difference in exposure. So I'm not confident in a Forgotten debut.
Jason: I'm going to have to buck the trend then, against my better judgement, but I'll go with the low $20's, $23.5. Last weekend it was almost impossible for most people in the northeast to get outside their houses. This weekend's weather should be better for that region.
Lee: The trailer also reminds me of The Others in a way, and that had a really strong per-screen average, but in about 1500 fewer theaters. The question is, does DeNiro have the appeal that Nicole Kidman had? At least for headlining.
Jason: I think he has the same draw.
Lee: In Meet the Fockers he is supported by various people.
Jason: That's true, but he must be some part of that success.
Lee: I mean City by the Sea and Godsend proved he wasn't a box office lock, but Godsend was most likely terrible anyway. And City didn?t really have a catch.
Jason: I think Godsend's release date was moved around. That has never helped for an opening.
Lee: You'd think Hide and Seek would have to at least outdo Uptown Girls ($11.3 million). I think City by the Sea and 15 Minutes ($10.5 million) looked more typical, whereas Hide and Seek has a catch within the story ? that should be appealing.
Jason: Dakota Fanning also has more exposure after Man on Fire ($22.7 million) and upcoming War of the Worlds than she did with Uptown Girls.
Lee: I forgot about Man on Fire. That had 2980 theaters, this is getting 3005. I'm still questionable about whether DeNiro can bring in people like Denzel or Kidman does. I mean people go see Denzel movies to see him take command and kick everyone's ass. DeNiro's not quite like that.
Jason: Besides the R-rating, I don't see why the same people who came out for White Noise won't be back for this. White Noise looked like a typical thriller with weak star power. Hide and Seek has some aspect of suspense and a lot more star power.
Lee: It started with an early ad-campaign, which is hopeful. Coach Carter started back in Oct, which was a sign of a $20+ debut. It's not like Alone in the Dark, which seems to be coming out of nowhere.
Jason: That looks really awful.
Lee: This weekend last year was when The Butterfly Effect made $17. Alone in the Dark reminds me of Ghosts of Mars.
Jason: Butterfly Effect was directed at a younger crowd.
Next Page: Alone in the Dark and Oscar Expansions
'Hide and Seek' Articles
- Friday Box Office Analysis (1/28)
January 29, 2005 Though the figure neared the $8.9 million gross of White Noise, Hide and Seek also matched up with the $2,831 average ($4.8 million) of The Others. -- Lee Tistaert
