Friday Box Office Analysis (5/6)

Kingdom of Heaven opened between Hidalgo and Master & Commander on Friday, and didn?t come close to the success of Gladiator, the figure Fox was desperately looking to capture. The Orlando Bloom epic took in $7.3 million in ticket sales on Friday in 3,216 theaters, averaging a good but unspectacular $2,258 per-screen. In comparison, Ridley Scott opened Gladiator to the tune of $11.1 million and $3,790 per-screen on the first weekend in May of 2000.

Kingdom of Heaven had soft spots, including the lack of star power beyond Bloom, who hasn?t carried a movie before, and he suffered criticism with his monotonous performance in Troy (which was likely to happen again here), as well as in his exclusive role choices. Russell Crowe, on the other hand, won people over in Gladiator, which helped the success of Master & Commander, which debuted on opening day to $8.2 million and $2,630 per-screen. The Last Samurai, another comparison, also had the benefit of having Tom Cruise, as it landed with a $8.2 million first day gross and $2,820 per-screen.

Commercials bombarded the viewer with the tagline, ?From the director of Gladiator,? making their box office ambition blatantly obvious; moviegoers saw through it. All the commercials really showed were splices of battlefield combat with an intense beat, and never really hinted at a story, which is risky for an epic ? especially when it?s 145 minutes. If the story had actually been important, Fox would?ve capitalized on it to woo over the genre fans.

Considering Kingdom of Heaven lacks strong female support, its Saturday incline might be restricted in comparison to Master & Commander (32%), and might come more in line with The Last Samurai in that regard. Crowe had the ability to draw in both genders given his talent, as well as young and older moviegoers. In that argument, you could say that Tom Cruise would be an even hotter example, but that film only jumped 12% on its second day.

The director of these films might have a significant impact on their success, as Commander featured Peter Weir, who many older and knowledgeable filmgoers respect; and Samurai featured Edward Zwick, a name most moviegoers don?t know. Cruise found a blockbuster with Minority Report, but that was Steven Spielberg, a name just about everyone on the street knows.

Bloom?s fan base should only go so far demographically, and Liam Neeson and Jeremy Irons do not provide enough of a promise for most mainstream moviegoers. Ridley Scott?s name would probably be the factor that leads this to a stronger second day boost than Last Samurai if it so happens, but Bloom is no Cruise, which presents a potential obstacle. A Saturday increase between the low-teen range and around 20% could result, which should give Kingdom of Heaven a weekend figure of about $21 - 22 million.

House of Wax probably had the most potential for surprising on the upside considering Paris Hilton?s icon status, and the movie ended up with modest results, grossing $5.0 million ($1,595/screen). The horror flick kind of debuted on the softer side of Dark Castle?s reputation, but only in terms of per-screen average. Thirteen Ghosts had turned in $5.4 million and $1,935 per-screen and their House on Haunted Hill had grossed $5.4 million and $2,000/screen.

However, those movies, as well as Ghost Ship ($4.1 million - $1,467 per-screen) had debuted in fewer than 3,000 theaters. As a result, there are more seats to fill now with 3,111 theaters, and the movie's overall buzz was a question. Hilton is no doubt huge, but Elisha Cuthbert and Chad Michael Murray are not guaranteed stars. And considering the fate of a certain character was fairly widely known before the movie debuted, that could?ve easily restricted the movie?s potential (given that there was no suspense).

House of Wax is likely to repeat the second day jump of the Warner Bros. teen thriller, Valentine, which grossed $3.6 million ($1,563/screen) on its first day and $4.1 million ($1,784/screen) on Saturday (14% increase). For the weekend, a gross of about $14.0 million should be expected.

Crash was somewhat of a wildcard this weekend, as despite generally strong reviews and a recognizable ensemble cast, the edgy subject matter controlled its immediate exposure. The film took in a decent $2.9 million in just 1,864 theaters, averaging $1,543 per-screen. For what is really an art-house film, the opening is very understandable, as Lions Gate took a big risk. Don Cheadle isn?t a big star like Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine of the Sportless Mind (another film that probably should?ve been gone in limited release at first), and the rest of the cast is fairly well known but they aren?t names that many mainstream moviegoers would immediately react to.

The film likely played quite well in specific cities with intellectual filmgoers, but that presents a problem given that art-house films aren?t accepted everywhere. Crash didn?t feature any actors with a status like Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine, and even that didn?t do super at first, as it took in $2.6 million in 1,353 theaters for a $1,954 average. Eternal Sunshine had the support of solid word of mouth and caught on some on DVD, but that film was nevertheless an oddball. Crash has the potential for a good second day increase in the high-20% range (like Eternal), and should be able to hold up on Sunday with the older moviegoers who don?t always rush out on the first or second day of a film?s release. A weekend of nearly $9.0 million could result for Crash.