Weekend Outlook Chat (May 6 - 8)

Jason: For the first weekend of May, you would expect an opening around $40 million and an epic like Kingdom of Heaven might have fit the bill. But I really haven?t felt much anticipation for this film. The first big May movie usually doesn't face such stiff competition either.

Lee: Besides from commercials, I haven't seen much of an ad-campaign in theaters.

Jason: I liked the trailer, but it doesn't have the selling points that Troy ($46.9 million) had. Orlando Bloom is popular, but he's no Brad Pitt.

Lee: Troy had three stars who guys liked and women would swoon over.

Jason: Since then there have also been a lot of epic battle movies, and I think audiences may be getting tired of those types of movies.

Lee: How big of a star is Orlando Bloom? When you start to compare him to Russell Crowe in Gladiator ($34.8 million) or Master & Commander ($25.1 million), and Tom Cruise in The Last Samurai ($24.3 million), it?s kind of hard to say it'll outdo those, if even live up to them. Another Lord of the Rings player, Viggo Mortensen, got his break with Hidalgo and that opened to $19.

Jason: Bloom's track record is impressive, but he's been pretty good about picking movies.

Lee: I would think Ridley Scott has more draw power than what Hidalgo offered. They've been taking full advantage of "From the director of Gladiator" in the ads, but I also think some people could be seeing through it and seeing it as a rip-off.

Jason: It's a good selling point, but it seems like they're too dependent on that factor. The footage is impressive, but I can't single out any scene as the "money shot.? Like the wave in The Perfect Storm or the armada in Troy.

Lee: What female support does this movie have? Yeah, teenage girls can go crazy over Bloom, but will they care in some big battle movie with no other guys to look at? This isn't Lord of the Rings. I've seen the film and I'm still questioning its big selling points. And I'm trying not to be biased. Part of me thinks moviegoers will say "who cares" and it may not hit $20, but part of me thinks the Master & Commander crowd will show up.

Jason: I think the results of Alexander ($13.7 million) and King Arthur ($15.2 million) are bad signs for Kingdom.

Lee: I was comparing to them too, but I haven't seen either one.

Jason: Also, the big drop off for Troy.

Lee: Seeing Kingdom made me want to see Alexander to see if it?s as bad as everyone claimed. And since Alexander under-performed, I figured there could be the chance that Kingdom under-performs. How much bigger is Orlando Bloom than Colin Farrell? It's not a clear answer.

Jason: If you thought Kingdom of Heaven was a C, I don't think Alexander is going to get a better grade from you. Alexander was plagued with bad press.

Lee: I'm not disagreeing. But some people called it one of the worst films they'd ever seen.

Jason: Angelina Jolie has a mixed track record as well, but she probably has more star power than Eva Green.

Lee: I didn't even know who Eva Green was when I heard her name in the ads, and I had even seen and liked The Dreamers. She?s got one of the top cast positions in the marketing here, which is strange.

Jason: I liked her in Dreamers, but I don't think she is well known.

Lee: What kind of draws are Liam Neeson and Jeremy Irons alongside Bloom? Russell Crowe and Joaquin Phoenix in Gladiator were at least going after basically the same audience. Master & Commander didn't need anyone else.

Jason: WSEX has $21.5 million for Kingdom and $18 for House of Wax. Almost right in line with your predictions

Lee: There's also The Patriot ($22.5 million), and that was even Mel Gibson.

Jason: And July 4th. I'm going to go with $20 million. At that level, it will probably be seen as a slight disappointment.

Lee: I was originally pretty confident about House of Wax hitting $20, but lately I've been going otherwise. I thought Paris Hilton would sell it easily, but the Dark Castle production company hasn't hit $20 million yet in a debut. There is room for records, but still. I wouldn't exactly call Elisha Cuthbert and Chad Michael Murray definite appeals yet either. The Girl Next Door flopped, and Murray had A Cinderella Story, which wasn't really his movie.

Jason: Horror movies don't need to rely so much on star power. I noticed that they haven't been focusing on Cuthbert much in the ads.

Lee: I was originally comparing it to The Texas Chainsaw Massacre ($28.1 million), but what is this movie's big catch?

Jason: I think the success of the movie will come down to the appeal of Paris Hilton. Can her notoriety and infamous past translate into box office?

Lee: The poster itself is a big spoiler. It's obvious that she dies.

Jason: Cuthbert gave that away on Conan on Wednesday night, so I don't think it's a surprise.

Lee: I didn't know that was Paris Hilton on the poster until someone told me to look at it in a different angle. I can imagine the critics probably cheered when she turns into wax, and some audiences may cheer too.

Jason: I think that's its selling point.

Lee: Like Britney Spears being killed in Goldmember.

Jason: I think this is a little different.

Lee: Just a bit.

Jason: Horror has been doing well and this has an extra selling point.

Lee: The Amityville Horror ($23.5 million) also had Michael Bay's marketing campaign. I'm not sure how much his name really mattered for that and Texas Chainsaw, but his producer status has got to have power in how much the movies are being marketed.

Jason: How does that relate to House of Wax?

Lee: Amityville's in the genre, and House of Hax doesn't have a name like Bay involved. Gothika is Dark Castle's biggest movie at $19.3 in only 2382 theaters.

I love the online banner that features Chad Michael Murray with his shirt off. It's like, hmm, who are you going after with this.

Jason: Despite the formulaic horror, I think House of Wax has the most upside surprise potential this weekend.

Lee: I agree. I would not be shocked if it beat out Kingdom of Heaven.

Jason: HSX has House of Wax at $19.1 million and Kingdom at $25.6.

Lee: Which is in the league of the comparisons.

Jason: How well do you think Crash will do this weekend? It seems to be in an awkward position. Wouldn't you want to open it in limited release first?

Lee: I'm amazed Lions Gate isn't sending Crash limited first. When I saw it, I was predicting a $30,000 average for it. To me it feels like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind ? something that should theoretically start out limited but is going wide, but this has 500 more theaters. This doesn't have a Jim Carrey, which makes its appeal shaky. But Don Cheadle is hot off Hotel Rwanda, and it has an ensemble cast besides him. They're marketing it as "From the writer of Million Dollar Baby.? It?ll be interesting to see how effective that ends up being, considering the buzz of MDB took a while to sink in with all the word of mouth.

Jason: I think the trailer is extremely powerful.

Lee: I've been comparing it to Changing Lanes ($17.1 million - $6,555 per-screen) in nearly 1000 fewer theaters.

Jason: Did Changing Lanes have the same type of emotional impact, though?

Lee: It had a similar story and tone.

Jason: That relied on the stars. I think Crash will have to pick up good word of mouth. I can't imagine a big opening.

Lee: I?m comparing it to that, Bounce ($11.4 million - $5,956/screen), Primary Colors ($12.0 million - $6,167/screen), and Million Dollar Baby ($12.3 million - $6,102/screen) in terms of having an edge that doesn?t appeal to everyone, but it might find a niche. I think the film's tone is actually stronger than Million Dollar Baby's, which is part of why I have the average very similar. It probably doesn't take much to guess that Crash will play really well in LA.

Jason: Yeah. If you went, crowd reports probably wouldn't be accurate.

Lee: I'm probably not going again in theaters. Although, considering everything else playing sucks, going again would be easy given my first reaction.

Jason: For Intertops, I went with $5 dollars on $18.5 - 25 million for House of Wax, and $17 - 22 for Kingdom of Heaven.

Lee: I think the edgy subject matter for Crash could restrict it from hitting $10, but I have a feeling this cast can sell to some extent, and seeing it gave me a certain vibe. Although I have to admit at first I wasn't sure what to think for wide release, and that was assuming it went limited first.

Jason: Last year, Shall We Dance? was the best opening with $11.8 million in 1772 theaters, so Crash would be up there. This year I can only find The Wedding Date with 1695 theaters and $11.1 opening. That type of release doesn't seem to have produced great results in the past 18 months. I'm a bit skeptical of how Crash will open. Your review confirmed my impression from the trailer, but the release strategy seems like it will be a problem.

Any thoughts on Jiminy Glick in Lalawood?

Lee: What's the record for biggest flop in limited release? National Lampoon?s Gold Diggers? In terms of per-screen average.

Jason: Last year, Dust Factory.

Lee: Actually, Gold Diggers had 1062 theaters but averaged $379/screen.

Jason: $8,000 in 22 theaters. I?m looking at 20 - 25 theater releases in 2004.

Lee: I would not be surprised if this only gets in the $300 range.

Jason: It has a lot of cameos, though. Surely that is worth something.

Lee: Who is this movie aimed at? People don't really show up for cameos.

Jason: I think you're seriously under-predicting it. Not that it will do well, but $300 is difficult.

Lee: It's based on a character that many people didn't find amusing to begin with. And the poster is absolutely terrible. And R-rated? That definitely excludes the kids, who I presume were part of Martin Short?s audience on TV.

Jason: But $300/theater?

Lee: An hour and a half movie on this character? The Saturday Night Live movie spin-offs were one thing. I just see $300/screen as a possibility.

Jason: I see that as a long shot.

Lee: I'd almost be surprised if this movie cracks over $1,000/screen.

Jason: Now you're going to get an angry email from Martin Short, writing as Jiminy.

Lee: How many theaters is it getting?

Jason: 24.

Lee: 24 empty theaters?

Jason: Haha.

Lee: Wow, I'm surprised they've got the courage to go over like 5. There's only like 3 here in LA. The Final Cut even had Robin Williams and only averaged $1,934/screen. Eulogy did $1,899/screen in 22 theaters, and I can't really see this having even that much appeal. Eulogy had a few recognizable people, and wasn?t based off a dead sketch. It could end up averaging similarly to Stephen King?s Riding the Bullet at $1,011 in 100 theaters.