Weekend Outlook Chat (June 17 - 19)

Jason: Doesn't look like Batman was very front-loaded when compared with other big Wednesday releases, but it doesn't have the advantage of a $40 million first day.

Lee: I haven't heard any Tues night figure. That would help.

Jason: They were probably only a small percentage.

Lee: My midnight show was full, but people were getting in at the last second, which seemed kind of weak, even though there were 1300 seats.

Jason: Yeah, that was sort of like the showing I went to Wednesday. It was half full at showtime, but by the end of the trailers it was over 90%.

Lee: There were only around 300 - 400 people when the line went in 45 minutes early. I'm hearing that Batman is starting to sell out at even the 4:00 hour (as of Friday).

Jason: The 40% drop is not much of a surprise looking at other big Wednesday opens. A lot of people have said that they didn't even know it was out on Wednesday.

Lee: I was very torn on whether I should stick with $68 for the weekend or go down to $60 for that reason.

Jason: Pirates dropped 22% on Thursday, but that didn't have the front-loaded expectation of a 4th sequel.

Lee: And that opened in the middle of summer. Not many people are going to take off work on a Wed. or Thurs. to see Batman ? this isn't Star Wars.

Jason: I wonder how much IMAX is factoring in to the gross. What are you expecting for Friday? Pirates and Spider-Man 2 had 40% Thur-Fri jumps, but mid-June could have a different effect.

Lee: I put Friday's gross at $21.

Jason: Do you think that's a reasonable increase?

Lee: 40% jump from Thurs to Fri would only put it at $13.3 mil.

Jason: That does seem way too low.

Lee: I find it hard to believe that Friday doesn't beat Wednesday. And if 4:00 shows are selling out today, that signals a potentially significant jump. I thought the style in which Batman Begins starts was more epic than most of the others. It felt somewhat in tune with the way the original started. I wouldn't have jumped up to $68 for 3-days if I hadn't seen it first.

Jason: What movie has had a significantly bigger Friday than its Wednesday and isn't Shrek?

Lee: Well I think it might be similar to Shrek 2 in that not a lot of people knew it opened early. It's easier to know War of the Worlds opens on a Wed because it's 4th of July.

Jason: I'm just looking at Spider-Man 2 and Pirates and it's hard to see a 100% jump or more today.

Lee: It's also still early summer. Spider-Man was 4th of July and Pirates opened when a midweek debut doesn't really matter.

Jason: I guess I should be careful when comparing July Wednesday openings with June openings. White Chicks increased over 100%, but its Thursday decrease was only 22%.

Lee: College students are at their final exams stage if not just getting out of school, and they're a big audience for this.

Jason: Shrek 2 also only dropped 22% on Thursday. You don't think they would have seen it on Wednesday?

Lee: Batman's real drop was smaller than 40% if you take away whatever the midnight gross was.

Jason: But we've talked about how it's hard to just subtract midnight showings ? whoever is seeing it at midnight would see it first thing opening day if there were not midnights. I predicted $17 million for Friday and $52 million for the 3-day on BOFC.

Lee: $17 seems like the lowest. It looks like $17 - 22 is the range.

Jason: I don't see it cracking $20 million today.

Lee: Batman had an average of $19,465, Returns $18,049, Forever $18,573, and Robin $14,612 ? but they all played in fewer than 3,000 theaters.

Jason: They were Friday releases, also.

The odds for Perfect Man put it under $6 million. And with a theater count hovering at 2,084, it seems like it'll be fortunate to beat out Raise Your Voice.

Lee: Raise Your Voice wasn't a romantic comedy, and this is. That's one of my biggest defenses.

Jason: I was a little hesitant, but I ended up predicting a bit over $6 million.

Lee: Chris Noth seems like a really bad choice for the love interest.

Jason: I figured it has to pick up some older demographics along with the diehard Hilary Duff fans, but I don't think the trailers explained the plot very well.

Lee: Heather Locklear has got to do something for its star-power. Raise Your Voice had a cable premise.

Jason: It seems like you usually know the plot like the back of your hand going into a romantic comedy. The tracking must be miserable.

Lee: Sneak previews look like a sign that it might not do terribly.

Jason: Did you end up writing a review for The Deal?

Lee: No.

Jason: I think the distributor probably agrees with your negative opinion of the movie given the scale of the release.

Lee: I figured the best I might be able to impact with my review is that maybe 7 people go into the Beverly Hills theater rather than 8.

Jason: Your review would probably have the opposite effect. I doubt anyone knows it exists. You might get the attention of some Christian Slater fan. Booking 8 screens is probably just a ploy to save it from the distinction of Direct-to-Video.

Lee: I think the average might be between Rock School ($879) and Exorcist Dominion ($1,257), and also a decent chance that it doesn't even get $800/screen. If it pulls $300 or 400/screen for the weekend I would not be surprised. I mean who is going to see a Christian Slater/Selma Blair movie that's in 8 theaters that takes on the image of a serious movie?

Jason: Someone who saw Alone in the Dark.

Lee: I bet you could figure out some drinking game in association with the movie.

Jason: The Deal or Alone in the Dark?

Lee: The Deal, but probably both.

Jason: Could be part of an AA program, one drink for every one million dollars Christian Slater's movies gross.

Lee: Probably for every time someone says "The Deal" in the movie.