Weekend Outlook Chat (March 4 - 6)

Jason: Any research we should do this time? This week seems more standard than last week. The general consensus appears to be that Be Cool opens #1 in 3216 theaters and there are some convincing factors going in its favor.

Lee: A few months ago I was thinking this was going to be like Out of Time ($16.2 million), which was also MGM, but it seems like it's going for a similar effect as Starsky & Hutch ($28.1 million). Like Starsky, they?re not going for the original audience, it's going for younger crowds. Get Shorty was an adult comedy and I doubt many adults are going to take a risk on this.

Jason: Get Shorty grossed over $72 million, and that?s over $100 million in 2005 dollars.

Lee: Get Shorty was also a lot of insider Hollywood jokes, and this doesn?t look that way. Moviegoers don't often like insider humor.

Jason: I think the advertising has been a lot heavier as well. I don't have a great memory, but I don't remember Get Shorty getting anywhere near this kind of release. The original had a moderate release with only 1612 theaters.

Lee: They've got a dynamite cast to make a fun flick if the script was good, but I doubt it is. It's the same writer who wrote Analyze That and Drowning Mona.

Jason: I can see Be Cool doing around the same business as Get Shorty when it?s all said and done, but front-loaded towards the first weekend.

Lee: I at first felt that it didn?t have the summer buzz that Italian Job ($19.5 million) had, but this cast seems to be a few ranks up in comparison.

Jason: Get Shorty was also R. You look at who was in Get Shorty vs. Be Cool: Rene Russo and Gene Hackman vs. Uma Thurman and Vince Vaughn.

Lee: Get Shorty tried to be hip with adult audiences and this is trying to be hip with the 17 - 35 crowd, which is basically who Starsky was aimed at. They also give Vince Vaughn the same short mentioning as they did in Starsky's campaign.

Jason: The latter group of actors is definitely targeted at a younger audience. Be Cool also looks like it has a lot of gratuitous cameos.

Lee: The story is actually like Analyze That, except with a strong cast and ad-campaign: a cheap carry-on to the previous entry, but in a glossy package.

Jason: I would be careful with that comparison. I think Get Shorty had a lot more fans than Analyze This. I'm guessing a lot of people don't even know the connection between Be Cool and Get Shorty.

Lee: The trailer just says "From the author of.? It's weird that the trailer's style actually resembles Racing Stripes, in terms of cast mentioning.

Jason: I think that's a symptom of trying to appeal to many demographics.

Lee: I think Starsky & Hutch had more going for it after coming off of Old School. A lot of people really liked Old School and a lot of those people were in the group that was targeted for Starsky. But a good chunk of that audience will probably show up here.

Jason: Well, on to the downsides. MGM has a track record of disappointing.

Lee: The reviews will likely turn off the adult group, and MGM's record isn't exactly fabulous.

Jason: They have had surprises with Barbershop ($20.6 million) and Legally Blonde ($20.4 million), but if you look at the recent MGM openings they aren't too many $20+ openings.

Lee: And to some people it might look like a stupid attempt of a sequel. In the Ocean?s 12 ads it was pretty clear that the heist wasn?t a big deal in the story. And here you could say the story?s not a big deal ? it?s the cast in both cases that people are attracted to.

Jason: Wicker Park, Sleepover, Soul Plane, Walking Tall all looked like they had a lot more potential. I think in the hands of another distributor, those could have had substantially larger opens, but I think Be Cool can overcome those problems. However, The Rock's past movies seem to have had high expectations, but delievered mediocre results.

Lee: I did think The Rundown was going to do a little better than it did, at first. But that was until I saw it.

Jason: You predicted $22, HSX had $27

Lee: It was a pretty standard action/comedy like Shanghai Knights. I remember some people were comparing its prospects to Rush Hour.

Jason: Be Cool is only at 29% on Rotten Tomatoes

Lee: It's not made for the critics.

Jason: Look at the difference when compared to Get Shorty's Reviews. That is pretty good evidence of a quick drop off after this weekend.

Lee: What's your prediction for the weekend?

Jason: This is interesting, BOFC is only at $23.5. It's hard to find a lot of times when BOFC predicted lower openings than HSX. HSX is still at over $26, but that's down a bit from the highs of near $29 million. I personally don't want to see it, but I think there's some potential for a strong weekend. And if it does do high $20s or more, that will only lead to a more rapid drop off: I'm going to go with $25. HSX might be a bit biased, though, because Be Cool has been running ads non-stop on that site. I remember a while back that HSX had high hopes for Death to Smoochy after the studio ran a big ad campaign on HSX.