<< December 8     Lee's Final Daily Predictions (December 15 - December 17)
Weekend Breakdown Early Predictions email newsletter       Posted: December 15 2006, 5:05:13 PM PT
#Title (Sites)Fri (Avg)Sat (%)Sun (%)Total (Avg)
1Eragon
Sites: 3,020
$8.598
$2,847
$8.340
-3%
$4.642
-44%
$21.581
$7,146
2Charlotte's Web
Sites: 3,566
$5.870
$1,646
$9.098
55%
$6.583
-28%
$21.549
$6,043
3Pursuit of Happyness
Sites: 2,852
$5.798
$2,033
$7.711
33%
$4.233
-45%
$17.742
$6,221
4Happy Feet
Sites: 3,335
$2.124
$637
$4.121
94%
$2.613
-37%
$8.857
$2,656
5The Holiday
Sites: 2,610
$2.754
$1,055
$3.497
27%
$1.984
-43%
$8.235
$3,155
6Apocalypto
Sites: 2,465
$2.310
$937
$2.842
23%
$2.241
-21%
$7.393
$2,999
7Blood Diamond
Sites: 1,910
$1.562
$818
$2.235
43%
$1.421
-36%
$5.218
$2,732
8Casino Royale
Sites: 2,437
$1.549
$636
$2.369
53%
$1.286
-46%
$5.204
$2,135
9The Nativity Story
Sites: 2,574
$1.081
$420
$1.676
55%
$1.524
-9%
$4.281
$1,663
10Unaccompanied Minors
Sites: 2,775
$0.896
$323
$1.587
77%
$0.905
-43%
$3.388
$1,221
Predicted Top 10: $103.4MTop 10 Last Year: $119.6MTop 10 Two Years Ago: $95.1M
predicted grosses in millions
DreamGirls is opening in 3 theaters this weekend in LA, NY, and San Francisco, where ticket prices are a flat $25 (with only 8 shows between Fri and Sun), and some shows have already sold out.

The Arclight in Hollywood is likely to clock in about $160,000 with 850 seats, while the Ziegfeld in NY could be around $240,000 with 1,200 seats. The San Francisco seat count is unknown but it's safe to estimate at least $160,000, which could push its total to around $560,000 (or $185,000/screen).

It looks like DreamWorks is looking to best the opening of Evita, which debuted in two theaters and clocked in a massive $195,000 for a $97,543 average. DreamGirls should go down as the biggest per-screen average ever for opening weekend - over Brokeback Mountain, which clocked in $547,000 from 5 theaters.
Box Office Comparisons
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Prediction Accuracy
Predictions tracked: 535

Lee's Accuracy: +/- 33.25%
Avg. $ off: $0.36M

HSX accuracy: +/- 32.39%
Avg. $ off: $0.35M