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Daily Breakdown Early Predictions email newsletter       Posted: December 15 2006, 5:05:13 PM PT
#TitlePredictedWeeklySites+/- Sites
1Eragon$21.581NEW3020-
2Charlotte's Web$21.549NEW3566-
3Pursuit of Happyness$17.742NEW2852-
4Happy Feet$8.857-31%3335-315
5The Holiday$8.235-36%26100
6Apocalypto$7.393-51%24650
7Blood Diamond$5.218-40%19100
8Casino Royale$5.204-42%2437-724
9The Nativity Story$4.281-25%2574-509
10Unaccompanied Minors$3.388-42%27750
Predicted Top 10: $103.4MTop 10 Last Year: $119.6MTop 10 Two Years Ago: $95.1M
predicted grosses in millions
DreamGirls is opening in 3 theaters this weekend in LA, NY, and San Francisco, where ticket prices are a flat $25 (with only 8 shows between Fri and Sun), and some shows have already sold out.

The Arclight in Hollywood is likely to clock in about $160,000 with 850 seats, while the Ziegfeld in NY could be around $240,000 with 1,200 seats. The San Francisco seat count is unknown but it's safe to estimate at least $160,000, which could push its total to around $560,000 (or $185,000/screen).

It looks like DreamWorks is looking to best the opening of Evita, which debuted in two theaters and clocked in a massive $195,000 for a $97,543 average. DreamGirls should go down as the biggest per-screen average ever for opening weekend - over Brokeback Mountain, which clocked in $547,000 from 5 theaters.
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Prediction Accuracy
Predictions tracked: 535

Lee's Accuracy: +/- 33.25%
Avg. $ off: $0.36M

HSX accuracy: +/- 32.39%
Avg. $ off: $0.35M