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Weekend Breakdown Final Predictions email newsletter       Posted: December 31 1969, 9:00:00 PM PT
#Title (Sites)Fri (Avg)Sat (%)Sun (%)Total (Avg)
1Men In Black 2
Sites: 3,557
$8.333
$2,343
$10.575
27%
$6.580
-38%
$25.482
$7,164
2Road to Perdition
Sites: 2,250
$7.313
$3,250
$9.142
25%
$5.963
-35%
$22.417
$9,963
3Crocodile Hunter
Sites: 2,650
$6.625
$2,500
$7.553
14%
$5.631
-25%
$19.809
$7,475
4Reign of Fire
Sites: 2,650
$4.571
$1,725
$5.440
19%
$3.776
-31%
$13.790
$5,204
5Mr. Deeds
Sites: 3,231
$3.247
$1,005
$3.994
23%
$2.533
-37%
$9.774
$3,025
Predicted Top 10: $91.3MTop 10 Last Year: $0MTop 10 Two Years Ago: $0M
predicted grosses in millions
With reviews that are looking to be purely glowing, DreamWorks' new drama, Road to Perdition, should fair very strongly this weekend, but with a restricted theater count that is quite modest, its chances of topping Men in Black II's second weekend is questionable. The film could follow through with a debut along the lines of Forrest Gump ($24.5 mil) and Apollo 13 ($25.4 mil). Opening in 2000+ locations, Road to Perdition could accomplish roughly $22.5 million in ticket sales.



Steve Irwin goes from television screen to the big-screen in what could be MGM's savior of the summer, The Crocodile Hunter: Collision Course. While some could argue that moviegoers can get the same experience for free on cable rather than paying at the ticket window, Irwin has a large group of fans ranging from young to midaged demographics that should be willing to help the mate out, which could provide Crocodile Hunter a sparkling box office delivery. The production cost just $13 million and Steve states that every cent of revenue will go toward wildlife conservation, which should serve as an additional reason for his fans to pitch in. Debuting in 2400+ theaters, Crocodile Hunter could be a surprise hit and gross around $20.0 million for the 3-day weekend.



The next film on the list, Disney's Reign of Fire, is a total wildcard. The film reminds me of Disney's 13th Warrior in about every angle and way possible, but Fire could secure a strong weekend finish by supplying young audiences some midsummer fun with dragons, fire and whatnot. With its visual effects likely to be a treat for its crowd, Reign of Fire could debut close to The Cell's $17.5 million gross or Spawn's $21.2 million tally, but as an overall gut prediction right now (it could change by Thursday's final predictions), I only see a good launch of around $14.0 million at the box office.



Be sure to tune in on Thursday, July 11 for a full round of Final Predictions.
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Prediction Accuracy
Predictions tracked: 535

Lee's Accuracy: +/- 33.25%
Avg. $ off: $0.36M

HSX accuracy: +/- 32.39%
Avg. $ off: $0.35M