Lee's Final Predictions (May 1 - August 28)

Daily Breakdown       Posted: May 30 2006, 8:26:54 PM PT

predicted grosses in millions

Summer 2006: 'Pirates' Likely to Squash the Competition
The top prize this summer may end up going to Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man?s Chest. The epic production has potential to earn upwards of $100 million for three days, and maybe even $400 or more domestically (which would put it in direct competition with Shrek 2). The original opened to $46.6 million in three days and $70.6 million in five; and with the help of tremendous word of mouth, the film finished with $305.4 million domestically ? a staggering 6.5% multiplier. The film was also a phenomenon on DVD.

Superman Returns could take second place. Bryan Singer, who previously worked on X2, is behind this remake and was able to lead X into an $85.6 million debut, and is now becoming a big power-player in Hollywood (X2 finished its run with nearly $215.0 million). Batman Begins should be a good comparison in the possibility that Superman underperforms; though its story is very well known, it is not guaranteed that there will be a huge rush-out effect. However, with Singer?s credibility stronger than (Batman?s) Christopher Nolan?s (who was riding off Memento and Insomnia), that factor could really make up for Superman?s weak spots and help deliver a sizzling performance throughout the summer.

Thanks to the $123.0 million four-day opening, X3 is looking to beat X2's total, but isn't likely to near $300 due to being very front-loaded. Most diehard fans will have seen X at least twice by the end of its second week, which should lead to a long line of weekend drops.

June Forecasts

July Forecasts

August Forecasts

Box Office Comparisons